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iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP)

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  • Dec. 19, 2013, 9:23 AM
    • India had a relief rally on Wednesday after the RBi surprised by not hiking rates, but fell anew last night dropping 0.7% for its 7th decline in 8 sessions.
    • Leading among the blue chips were the rate-sensitive stocks, with ICICI (IBN) Bank off 3% and HDFC (HDB) Bank down 2.1%.
    • "One of the big questions post Fed's move is whether liquidity will continue flowing to emerging markets like India or not. If rates go up in U.S. then it will be risk for EMs," says Aneesh Srivastava, CIO at IDBI Federal Life Insurance.
    • IBN -5.4%, HDB -5.6% premarket
    • India ETFs: EPI, INDY, SCIF, INP, PIN, INDL, ICN, INR, INXX, INDA, SCIN, INCO, SMIN
    | Comment!
  • Dec. 16, 2013, 3:20 AM
    • India's wholesale price index, one of the country's main inflation gauges, accelerated to a 14-month high of 7.52% on year in November from 7% in October and topped estimates that were also 7%.
    • The growth adds to CPI of 11% and will strengthen the case of those who argue that the Reserve Bank of India should again increase interest rates when it meets on Wednesday despite stuttering growth.
    • The RBI's key repurchase rate is at 7.75% after being raised in September and October.
    • The Sensex is -0.1% and the USD-INR is -0.25% at 61.96 rupees.
    • ETFs: EPI, INDY, INP, SCIF, PIN, INDL, ICN, INR, INXX, SCIN, INDA, INCO, SMIN
    | Comment!
  • Dec. 7, 2013, 6:43 PM
    • A multitude of factors — including a delay in the Fed taper and the appointment of new RBI governor Raghuram Rajan — have conspired to spark a 20% rally in Indian stocks since September, but "despite the recent gains, the country's equities still offer value," Barron's says.
    • Shares trade at just 13 times 2014 EPS estimates, that's below the long-term average.
    • With earnings growth seen at 8-10% going forward, analysts like Credit Suisse's Neelkanth Mishra say shares aren't generally expensive and may be worth a look.
    • ETFs: EPI, INDY, SCIF, PIN, INP, INDL, ICN, INR, INXX, SCIN, INDA, INCO, SMIN
    | 3 Comments
  • Nov. 29, 2013, 10:24 AM
    • Q3 GDP grew 4.8% Y/Y vs. consensus 4.6% and Q2's 4.4%. Part of the improvement was better weather, with Barclays noting good monsoons and better sowing helping to boost the agriculture sector. Manufacturing remains weak, rising just 1% Y/Y and services growth of 6% is significantly lower than the 5-year average of 8.6%. Exports rose 2.6% from a year ago amid a sharply weaker rupee.
    • Monetary policy - more focused on inflation and the rupee - is likely to remain on the tight side, says the team.
    • Investors seem to feel differently, and the bidding up of Indian stocks - which began in September after an ugly bear market - continues today. EPI +2.1%.
    • Indian ETFs: EPI, INDY, SCIF, PIN, INP, INDL, INR, INXX, SCIN, INDA, INCO, SMIN
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 29, 2013, 2:31 AM
    • As expected, the Reserve Bank of India has increased its key lending rate to 7.75% from 7.5%, having raised the rate in September by a quarter-percentage point also.
    • However, the RBI reduced the marginal standing facility rate to 8.75% from 9%.
    • Prior to the decision, data showed that wholesale inflation climbed to 6.46% in September, above the bank's target of 5%. The RBI warned that inflation will remain high in the coming months.
    • India's Sensex index is +0.3%, while the USD-INR is -0.1% to 61.465 rupees. (PR)
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 16, 2013, 4:12 AM
    • Raghuram Rajan, the head of the Reserve Bank of India, believes that his country's stuttering economy will pick up in Q4, due to the resumption of stalled projects and a good monsoon season.
    • Around $115B worth of resource projects were halted due to a review of transparency and environmental policy, but about half of these have now been re-authorized.
    • The monsoon will lead to a "bountiful harvest," Rajan told the Harvard Business School, with activities such as animal husbandry and poultry also picking up.
    • However, Rajan warned observers not to pay too much attention to India's economic temperament. "If you are an outsider looking at India, learn to filter out both the irrational exuberance and the excessive pessimism. We're subject to both. You will become manic-depressive if you follow our moods."
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 15, 2013, 3:10 PM
    • In a bid to lure more investors into its government debt, India is lobbying JPMorgan to include its paper in the bank's Government Bond Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index, which is tracked by funds with more than $200B in AUM.
    • "A game changer" if it happens says Standard Chartered, noting a weighting of 10% could lead foreign investors to buy $20B-$40B worth of government bonds. First, however, the country would need to remove a $30B cap on foreign investment in Indian debt. Foreign holdings of Indian government bonds make up just 2% of the $150B outstanding, according to Morgan Stanley.
    • Inclusion in the index isn't likely for another few months, says Morgan, and it would be a gradual process drawing out over nearly another year and a half.
    • India ETFs: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN, ICN, INR.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 14, 2013, 3:15 AM
    • India's wholesale price index, one of the country's main inflation gauges, accelerated to +6.5% on year in September from +6.1% in August and came in above expectations for +6%.
    • The increase in WPI comes amid stuttering economic growth, the weak rupee, which makes imports more expensive, and high food prices. With CPI inflation at 9.5%, the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates to 7.5% last month.
    • "Given the RBI's hawkish stance despite slowing growth, we expect the repurchase rate to remain high for now," says strategist Tirthankar Patnaik.
    • The Sensex is flat; the USD-INR is +0.3% to 61.24 rupees.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2013, 9:42 AM
    • "The Fed will be looser for longer. The FOMC will continue to print money until the US economy creates enough jobs to reignite wage pressures and inflation, regardless of asset bubbles, or collateral damage along the way," says a giddy Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Yellen nomination.
    • The "dove" label is unfair, says Pritchard. Yellen pushed for pre-emptive hikes in the mid-90s as Greenspan fed the stock market bubble.
    • Ahead of the financial crisis, she was quicker to sense the systemic risk of the subprime crash than the rest of the FOMC. And after:  "Fighting a chorus of amateur alarmists who claimed that inflation was poised to take off," Yellen was an early and enthusiastic backer of QE.
    • A key Yellen speech from earlier this year requires study, says Pritchard, as it shows she's paying attention to the falling labor force participation rate, i.e. a headline UE print of 6.5% may not hold much "tightening" sway with her.
    • Emerging markets - which took a major hit from taper talk - may be set to benefit the most from a the longer and looser policies of Janet Yellen.
    • Overnight: India gained 1.3%, Shanghai gained 0.6%, and southeast Asia posted a nice advance.
    • Emerging market ETFs: AGEM, EEM, ADRE, SCHE, GMM, VWO, DEM, EWEM, PXH, PIE, EWX, DGS, EMLB, EDC, EET, EMSA, EDZ, EEV, EUM, TLTE, HILO, EELV, EEMA, EMFT, DVYE, FEMS, EVAL, EGRW, EMCR, IEMG, EMDR, EEME.
    • India and China: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMINFXI, GXC, PGJ, YAO, FCHI, PEK, CAF, YXI, XPP, FXP, MCHI, YINN, YANG, TCHI, CHXF, KFYP.
    • Seasia: EIDO, IDX, IDXJEPHETHD, TTF, TF.
    | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 8, 2013, 9:33 AM
    • The IMF sees emerging market economic growth of 4.5% in 2013, down from a 5% estimate three months ago. 2014 growth is seen at 5.1%, down from 5.5% three months ago. Estimates for developed countries are unchanged - 1.2% in 2013 and 2% next year.
    • The agency cites tightening capacity constraints, flat or falling commodity prices, less policy support, and slowing credit as the reasons for cutting its emerging market forecast.
    • India suffers a particularly steep cut, now expected to grow just 3.8% in 2013 from an earlier estimate of 5.6% (that "pros" can be so far off in just 3 months speaks to the value of this stuff), and 5.1% next year from 6.2%.
    • Needless to say, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard issues a stark warning about the U.S. budget showdown.
    • The IMF World Economic Outlook.
    • EM equity ETFs: AGEM, EEM, ADRE, SCHE, GMM, VWO, DEM, EWEM, PXH, PIE, EWX, DGS, EMLB, EDC, EET, EMSA, EDZ, EEV, EUM, TLTE, HILO, EELV, EEMA, EMFT, DVYE, FEMS, EVAL, EGRW, EMCR, IEMG, EMDR, EEME.
    • India ETFs: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 7, 2013, 12:22 PM
    • Indian banks get a lift after the central bank moves to roll back at least one emergency move taken to halt the sliding currency - cutting the marginal standing facility rate 50 basis points to 9%. The benchmark repurchase rate is held at 7.5%.
    • The rupee is up about 11% vs. the greenback after hitting a record low in late August, but weakened somewhat today.
    • ICICI Bank (IBN +2.4%), HDFC Bank (HDB +1.1%).
    • Indian ETFs: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN.
    • Rupee ETFs: ICN, INR.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 9:18 AM
    • The Asian Development Bank revises down its growth forecast for developing Asia to 6% in 2013 (from 6.6%) and 6.2% in 2014 (from 6.7%).
    • India suffers the largest downward revision, with the ADB now predicting economic growth of 4.7% this year versus its previous estimate of 6%. China's forecast is haircut slightly, to 7.6% from 7.4%, although the country's slowdown is described as "healthy" and "intentional," and the bank's chief economist still expects China's economy to grow at a 7% clip over the next 10 years. Chinese and Indian markets are closed for holidays.
    • Meanwhile, economists' rosy outlook for the Philippine economic machine is intact, as the ADB now sees the country's economy growing at a 7% pace in 2013 (from a previous forecast of 6%) and 6.1% in 2014 (from a previous forecast of 5.9%). The Philippine economy has expanded at a 7% pace for four-straight quarters. The PSEi rallied on the news, rising 2.7% in Manila.
    • China ETFs - Stocks: FXI, GXC, PGJ, YAO, FCHI, PEK, CAF, YXI, XPP, FXP, MCHI, YINN, YANG, TCHI, CHXF, KFYP, HAO, ECNS. Bonds: DSUM, CHLC. Currency: CNY, CYB, FXCH
    • India ETFs - INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 26, 2013, 10:36 AM
    • News that ONGC Videsh, India’s flagship oil and gas explorer, would raise $4B to buy stakes in two Mozambique energy assets shows India is stepping up its game to fix its energy-deficient economy.
    • India imports ~75% of its energy needs and has been working to build a diversified portfolio of foreign assets to minimize its dependency on the Middle East.
    • ONGC had agreed in August to pay $2.6B for a 10% stake in an oil field owned by Anadarko (APC), and last week ONGC and Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) said they would increase their stakes in a Brazilian field.
    • ETFs: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN.
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 20, 2013, 2:40 AM
    • In its first decision under new governor Raghuram Rajan, the Reserve Bank of India has surprisingly increased its benchmark lending rate to 7.5% from 7.25%, saying that "bringing down inflation to more tolerable levels" warranted increasing the LAF repo rate.
    • Analysts had expected the RBI to leave the rate as it was.
    • The central bank also started to reverse recent measures it took to calm volatility in the forex market, lowering the marginal standing facility rate by 75 bps to 9.5%.
    • The RBI's actions rocks shares, with the Sensex -2.5% after being -0.2% prior to the decision. The rupee plunges briefly before stabilizing somewhat and the USD-INR is now +0.3% at 62.38 (PR)
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
    | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 19, 2013, 3:50 AM
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 15, 2013, 6:43 PM
    • News that Larry Summers will not be the next Fed Chairman makes the coming week even more interesting for emerging markets, which were already on watch pending the Fed's taper decision.
    • With Summers out of the hunt, markets hit hard recently by fears of capital outflows could catch a bid Monday and Tuesday as the prospect of a Yellen-led Fed and the long-term continuation of ultra-dovish policy could make investors think twice about abandoning the quest for yield just yet.
    • Throw in a possible taper-induced sell-off in the back half of the week and it could be a roller coaster.
    • Notable ETFs to watch - Indonesia: IDX, IDXJ, EIDO; India: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN; Thailand: THD, TTF, TF
    | 2 Comments
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INP Description
The iPath® MSCI India IndexService Mark ETNs are linked to the MSCI India Total Return IndexService Mark (the "Index"). The Index is a free-float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the market performance, including price performance and income from dividend payments, of Indian equity securities. The Index seeks to represent approximately 85% of the free-float-adjusted market capitalization of equity securities by industry group within India. As of September 30, 2009, the Index was comprised of 60 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India (the "NSE").
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