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iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP)

  • Aug. 27, 2013, 3:20 AM
    • India's rupee has dropped to more record lows against the dollar and shares have plunged after the country's Lower House of Parliament approved a $20B plan to provide cheap grain for the poor, or almost 70% of the country's 1.2B people.
    • The bill has prompted concerns that it will add to India's fiscal deficit.
    • The USD-INR is +2.3% to 65.805 after earlier hitting 65.93. The currency has plummeted this year for a variety of reasons, including the lack of economic reform and the the Fed's intention to start tapering its QE program.
    • The Sensex is -2.3%.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
  • Aug. 23, 2013, 7:27 AM
    • The EEM is off 13.9% YTD, but it's been the locals who have been selling as foreign inflows into emerging market stock funds have continued ... up until last week, where $12.3B in net outlfows were seen, according to EPFR.
    • The troubled Indian stock market is an example - foreigners plowed $12B into stocks there this year, bringing their ownership to a record high 21.7% as of June 30, according to Citi. The mood changed after the government Wednesday imposed what are essentially capital controls, and the stock market saw foreign net outflows of $517M.
    • Not for nothing, but the Sensex (and emerging markets in general) rallied for a 2nd straight session overnight; EPI +0.9%, EEM +1.2% premarket.
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  • Aug. 23, 2013, 3:15 AM
    • The India rupee has recovered a bit after yesterday touching another record low of 65.561 to the dollar. The USD-INR is now 64.6, +0.1% on the day, while shares are +0.5%.
    • Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram and Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao sought to calm markets by pledging that India has no intention of introducing capital controls, including on repatriation.
    • The comments came after the RBI last week imposed restrictions on Indians' movement of money outside the country, which helped spark a rout in the already weak rupee.
    • In its annual report, the RBI painted a rather grim picture of India's situation, although Chidambaram expressed confidence that growth will pick up and that the country's huge current account deficit - a major cause of concern - will fall.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
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  • Aug. 21, 2013, 4:37 AM
    • The Reserve Bank of India has has said it will buy 80B rupees ($1.26B) of long-dated government bonds on Friday and reduce weekly sales of cash-management bills to rein in a surge in yields. The bank could make further purchases, depending on market conditions.
    • The move comes after a series of tightening measures that unsuccessfully attempted to stem the free-fall in the rupee. Not only did the measures fail, they also caused a cash crunch that led banks to raise deposit and lending rates.
    • Indian shares are -1.4%, adding to sharp falls over the last few sessions.
    • Yields on 10-year government bonds plunge 57 bps to 8.35%.
    • However, the rupee weakens again after recovering yesterday following RBI intervention in the currency markets. The USD-INR is +1.45% at 64.04.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR (PR)
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  • Aug. 20, 2013, 3:56 AM
    • The rupee has hit yet another low of 64.175 to the dollar, although the currency is now at 63.565 amid speculation of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
    • India's Sensex drops again, declining 0.1%, although that's up from earlier lows.
    • "The rupee is at risk of completely losing its anchor," says UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja. UBS has predicted a drop to 70 to the dollar, but "no rupee forecast is sacrosanct.
    • What investors want is economic reform, not the quasi capital controls that were announced last week.
    • "There is no focus on improving productivity, infrastructure or getting FDI (foreign direct investment) back," says Nomura credit analyst Pradeep Mohinan. "It's all about stemming the flow of currency and that is not the cause of the problem."
    • Expectations that the Fed will soon start tapering are also hurting the rupee.
    • Companies that have been affected by the currency's slide - for better or for worse - include Cummins (CMI), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT).
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
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  • Aug. 19, 2013, 4:16 AM
    • The Indian rupee has again hit new lows against the dollar, falling to 62.755 earlier as markets continue to show their disdain for the Reserve Bank of India's attempt to boost the currency through limits on how much Indian residents and companies can send offshore.
    • What investors want, especially foreign ones, is not a return to capital controls, as the RBI policy suggests, but economic reforms that, in the words of Westpac analysts, "look and feel like a worthy 'second generation' to the fundamental measures adopted in the early 1990s."
    • Analysts also find it "curious" that the RBI is trying to battle depreciation given that a weaker rupee would help boost exports and limit imports.
    • USD-INR is now +0.2% at 62.63, while the Sensex is -2.2%, continuing its heavy falls from last week.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR.
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  • Aug. 18, 2013, 3:17 AM
    • Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is confident that his country isn't in danger of experiencing the balance-of-payments crisis that occurred in 1991, he said yesterday.
    • Singh's comments came amid economic growth that has slowed to 5%, the least in a decade, and a record high current-account deficit of 4.8% of GDP. Meanwhile, the rupee continues to drop to record lows against the dollar despite - or because of - what have been seen as the imposition of "quasi capital controls." On Friday, the Sensex plunged 4%.
    • Singh pointed out that in 1991, when he was finance minister, the Reserve Bank of India had just enough cash to a pay for 15 days, and the country was forced to pledge its gold in order to pay its bills. The crisis forced India to liberalize its economy and Singh was seen as the man who saved it.
    • "At that time, foreign exchange in India was a fixed rate. Now it is linked to market," Singh said, adding that the RBI has enough reserves to pay for seven months of imports.
    • A major cause of India's ballooning current account deficit is the insatiable appetite of ordinary Indians for gold, which the government has been trying to curb through various measures.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
  • Aug. 16, 2013, 5:03 AM
    • Measures by the Reserve Bank of India to try to boost the rupee seem to be backfiring - for now - with the currency hitting a record low of 62.13 to the dollar earlier today. The USD-INR is now +0.7% at 61.87.
    • Meanwhile, shares are -3.4% on fears the RBI is losing credibility.
    • Earlier this week, the RBI said it would cap forex outflows for local firms and residents, steps that economist Radhika Rao says could be perceived as "tantamount to quasi-capital controls." Foreign investors could "rethink plans to invest on fear of controls."
    • Not helping the rupee's cause is the fevered expectation that the Fed will soon start tapering, a prospect that is helping the dollar to strengthen.
    • ETFs - Stocks: INDY, EPI, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL, SMIN. Currency: ICN, INR
  • Aug. 6, 2013, 7:15 AM
    • Raghuram Rajan - chief economic adviser to India's finance ministry - is chosen to be the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
    • He'll replace outgoing Duvvuri Subbarao when his 5-year term is up in September. Rajan's appointment is for 3 years.
    • Rajan was previously chief economist of the IMF and a professor at the University of Chicago (there's something odd about one person occupying both of those positions).
    • Rajan is greeted with the rupee falling to a new all-time low of 61.86 to the dollar and the Sensex off another 2.3% last night.
    • Related stock ETFs: EPI, INDY, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL.
    • Rupee ETF: ICN.
  • Jul. 30, 2013, 1:24 PM
    • The Sensex declined 1.25% overnight after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark rate steady at 7.25% but said it would "forfeit some monetary policy discretion to address external sector concerns." Translation: Slowing inflation and growth might normally lead to easier policy, but the bank is instead focused on supporting the rupee.
    • Marketfields' Michael Shaoul notes an Indian small cap index off 27% YTD to a 4-year low is a pretty good gauge of the stress in the domestic economy. An Indian small cap ETF: SCIF -5.3% today.
    • Individual stocks: ICICI Bank (IBN -3.3%), Tat Motors (TTM -4.7%), Dr. Reddy's Labs (RDY -4.4%).
    • Not bullish on Indian consumer names, Credit Suisse does take a liking to one with U.S. exposure: Wipro (WIT +1.1%).
    • Other ETFs of note: EPI -3.9%, INDY -3.2%, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIN, INDL.
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  • Jul. 19, 2013, 2:39 PM
    India (EPI -0.3%) may seem a tasty contrary play after a tough run this year amid slowing growth, a falling currency, and a central bank in tightening mode, but Nomura isn't expecting better times. In addition to the above-mentioned issues, there's a closing window for political reforms as the election calendar gets busy in September. "Achieving the fiscal target will be challenging this year without slicing spending again - a strategy that would lead to a further growth slowdown." Other ETFs: INDY, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL. One local bank traded here, ICICI (IBN -1.7%) has struggled along with the broader market.
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  • Jul. 16, 2013, 8:58 AM
    Nearly all the BRICs are in tightening mode after the Reserve Bank of India moved to shore up the rupee by jacking up interest rates 200 bps to 10.25% and commencing government bond sales to further drain liquidity. The Sensex fell 0.9% overnight. Indian ETFs to watch: EPI, INDY, PIN, INP, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL.
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  • Jul. 15, 2013, 10:38 AM
    Hot money can vanish quickly. Portfolio managers yanked money out of India at a record pace, according to Barclays which compiled this longer-term graph of flows (both equity and fixed income) into the country. One popular India ETF (EPI) is off about 17% from a spring high.
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  • Jul. 12, 2013, 7:40 AM
    "The rupee is by far the world's most undervalued major currency," says HSBC fixed-income specialist Geoffrey Lunt, his bank stepping in to buy beat-up Indian bonds. The struggling rupee has also dinged India equity ETFs like the EPI - off 14.6% YTD - and ICICI Bank (IBN), off 10.8% YTD after a 20% decline in the last 6 weeks.
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  • Jul. 5, 2013, 7:44 AM
    China (FXI), Hong Kong (EWH), and India (EPI) are in a "high-risk danger zone" thanks to monetary policy that's been too loose for too long, according to a Nomura report showing skying debt levels across nearly all of Asia. Countries in the middle-risk range are South Korea (EWY), Malaysia (EWM), Singapore (EWS), and Thailand (THD). Meanwhile, Kyle Bass returns from a trip to Japan to talk about the coming collapse in China. He's "dramatically reduc(ing) risk in the portfolio."
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  • May. 28, 2013, 3:10 PM
    The fundamentals needed to support a bull market in struggling Indian equities are in place, says Jefferies, but the needed catalyst - new elections and a stable government - is about a year away. Use the time to rotate out of just-downgraded staples and IT, and into industrial cyclicals and (especially) financials. Favorite stocks: HDB and IBN. ETFs: EPI, PIN. INP, INDY, INDA, INXX, SCIF, SCIN, INDL.
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INP Description
The iPath® MSCI India IndexService Mark ETNs are linked to the MSCI India Total Return IndexService Mark (the "Index"). The Index is a free-float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure the market performance, including price performance and income from dividend payments, of Indian equity securities. The Index seeks to represent approximately 85% of the free-float-adjusted market capitalization of equity securities by industry group within India. As of September 30, 2009, the Index was comprised of 60 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India (the "NSE").
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