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Friday, May 11, 2012, 3:06 AM India's industrial production unexpectedly contracted in 3.5% in March as domestic demand weakened and exports slid, raising concerns the country's outlook has deteriorated because of trade and fiscal deficits, political wrangling, persistent inflation and an uncertain global outlook. Production had gained 4.1% in February, and economists had expected a 1.7% gain for March. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, May 7, 2012, 10:50 AM India bows to investor pressure and postpones for a year rules which would have allowed tax authorities to pore over any business deal they thought was structured to avoid taxes (pretty much all of them). Additionally, the onus will be on the government to prove wrongdoing, instead of on companies to prove their innocence. The Sensex reverses an early decline to close +0.5%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 7:20 AM India's April manufacturing PMI rises to 54.9 from 54.7 previously, led by strong export orders, which drove the overall new orders sub-index to 61.1. "The RBI's rate cut could turn out to have been premature and too aggressive," says HSBC's Leif Eskesen, noting both output and input prices grew at a faster pace in April. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 2:42 AM S&P revises India's outlook to negative from stable, affirms its BBB- rating. BSE Sensex -0.9%. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, April 23, 2012, 3:23 PM Where's the rally, asks Scotty Barber, who notes the BRICs - during periods when their central banks are cutting rates - outperform developed markets. Brazil's 75 point cut (with more to come) was the loudest move, but policy is easing in the others as well. As of yet there's been no rally in either absolute or relative terms. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, April 17, 2012, 3:02 AM The Reserve Bank of India lowers its repo rate by 50 bps to 8%, confounding expectations for a 25 bps cut and marking the first cut in three years. An uncertain inflation outlook leaves little room for further cuts. (RBI statements: rate cut, economic outlook) 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, April 16, 2012, 4:47 AM India's inflation slowed less than expected, rising 6.89% in March after a 6.95% rise in February, but a marked drop in manufacturing prices is sustaining hope of a possible rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India tomorrow. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 11:08 AM The RBI is expected to launch the first rate-cutting cycle in India in 3 years at its April 17 meeting, but a 25 basis point move would be little more than symbolic, argues Jeff Glekin. With the central government in "policy meltdown," it's up to the central bank to go for bold stimulus with aggressive rate cuts. EPI +23% YTD, but -21% Y/Y. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, April 12, 2012, 3:40 AM India's industrial production grew a slower-than-expected 4.1% in February as consumer durables and consumer goods contracted. January's figure was revised down sharply, to 1.14% from 6.8%, because of an apparent error in sugar production data. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, April 9, 2012, 7:32 AM Only 1.2% of Indian household savings are directly invested in shares, writes Nitin Rao - amounting to a "laughable figure" of $2.5B. There are just 20M stock trading accounts and 248 portfolio managers in a country of 1.2B. For those who believe the biggest moves in emerging markets come at the "moment of discovery and floodtide of liquidity," India may offer some interest, writes Josh Brown. Comment! [Global & FX, Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 30, 2012, 11:59 AM India's current account deficit in 2011's final quarter hit $19.6B, a near doubling from 2010 (nice visual here). "The trade deficit widened and capital inflows fell far short of financing requirement, resulting in significant drawdown of fx reserves," says the RBI. Indian shares last night, +2%. EPI +2.7%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 27, 2012, 12:29 PM Fidelity is unloading its mutual fund business in India, unable to make money after 8 years despite industry assets there that have boomed to $134B. "It's a very worrying sign that a player like Fidelity is getting out," says a Morningstar analyst. To blame are the company's high pay structure and marketing costs, along with volatile stocks that have investors moving to bond funds. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Friday, March 23, 2012, 3:48 AM India's central bank is moving toward a looser monetary policy, says deputy governor Subir Gokarn, though he's not sure yet when that will happen or at what pace. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, March 21, 2012, 7:16 AM Opining on everything, everywhere, the IMF gives the thumbs up to India's budget for threading the needle between trying to save money while increasing spending. The budget targets a deficit/GDP ratio of 5.1% vs. 5.9% last year. In the midst of 1-month slump, the Sensex +1.7% overnight. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 20, 2012, 6:40 AM India's central bank has room to cut rates if commodity prices fall, says RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 7:08 AM Indian shares reverse big gains to close sharply lower (-1.2%) after the finmin proposes a budget with a raft of tax hikes, but no real reform. Hoping for a big reduction or even scrapping of an equity transactions tax, investors got just a nominal cut. Budget-busting subsidies for fertilizer, food, and oil remain. EPI +29.6% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]

INXX EGShares India Infrastructure ETF

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EGShares India Infrastructure ETF