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Wednesday, May 15, 3:40 PM More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? 15 Comments [Tech]
Friday, April 26, 3:26 PM TIPS have mostly rebounded from a recent selloff, but Barclays spots an opportunity at the short-end of the curve. Some 1-year notes are expected to fall in price next week when they fall out of the Barclays U.S. TIPS Index (which must drop them when less than a year to maturity). The ensuing forced selling by funds such as the TIP could create a bargain price for buyers. Comment!
Friday, April 19, 12:48 PM Bill Gross takes advantage of the recent selloff in TIPS (TIP) to add to his holdings, noting the break-even rate for longer-dated paper has fallen to 2.35% (if inflation comes in above this number, TIPS outperform Treasurys). Yesterday's Treasury auction of TIPS was a mess, with one trader calling the action a "get me out" trade. Gross is getting in. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 15, 1:42 PM Gold isn't the only inflation hedge losing fans as funds owning TIPS have seen 3 straight months of outflows, according to Morningstar, the first such streak since 2008. At current levels, 5-year TIPS (TIP) would break even only if inflation rises more than 2.18% annually. "We just don't see (it)," says formerly bullish strategist Dan Heckman, whose fund has been a seller of late. 1 Comment [Financials, U.S. Economy]
Friday, January 25, 3:24 PM Inflation-protected securities have duration as well. Today's selloff in Treasurys (TLT -1.5%) is also taking a bite out of TIPS (TIP -0.5%). Meanwhile, Morningstar launches its Real Asset Index which will hold a portfolio of TIPS, REITs, and commodity stocks and futures. Perhaps an ETF will soon be launched to track it. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, December 19, 2012, 3:27 PM Bill Gross (BOND) is "lightening positions" in MBS after they've been a big winner for his funds this year (interesting: the MBB has actually declined since the Fed began QE∞). He's also cutting back on his holdings of corporate paper (LQD). Expecting the Fed to eventually produce higher inflation, he's added to his holdings of TIPS (TIP), while cutting back on non-inflation protected Treasurys. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 4:36 PM Treasurys have a tough day following the Fed's decision to pour on the liquidity, the price on the 10-year note falling nearly half a point following the FOMC announcement. Inflation-protected securities continue to be a (relatively) excellent place to hide out, with TIP -0.3% against TLT's 1.2% decline. No inflation worries? TIPS have outperformed Treasurys of a similar maturity by a wide margin this year. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 11:28 AM No inflation? It's another record-high for the TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) as inflation-protected securities continue to outperform Treasurys of a similar maturity (a run stretching back to Sept. 2011). Thus far this year, TIP has posted a total return of better than 8%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, November 21, 2012, 11:47 AM The Treasury sells $13B in 10-year TIPS priced to yield -0.72% vs. a when-issued yield of -0.76%. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53 vs. a recent 2.35; indirect bidders take down 48% vs. a recent 43.8%, direct bidders 10.3%. TIP -0.3%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, October 17, 2012, 9:12 AM TIPS investors have another fund to choose from as Vanguard's Short-Term Inflation Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) traded 30K shares on its launch yesterday. The fund's fee is 0.10% vs. similar funds STIP and STPZ which charge 0.20%. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, September 20, 2012, 1:23 PM Investors grudgingly pay up for inflation protection, the Treasury selling $13B in 56-month TIPS at -0.75% - the 5th consecutive auction of negative yields. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35 vs. a recent average of 2.78; direct bidders took down 7.6% vs a recent 15.6%, indirect bidders 43.8% vs. a recent 39%. On-the-run TIPS take a bit of a tumble after the weakish results. TIP -0.2%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, September 14, 2012, 3:23 PM Deflation risk? As Treasurys plummet (TLT -2.4%), inflation-protected bonds (TIP +0.5%) move in the opposite direction. Michael Gayed tracks the ratio of TIP to the 7-10 year Treasury ETF (IEF) as a way to gauge inflation expectations, and it's spiked higher of late, suggesting far higher inflation fears. 12 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, August 23, 2012, 5:09 PM Noting the FOMC minutes said additional ease is coming fairly soon unless the economy sees "sustainable strengthening," Bill Gross says QE3 is a "done deal." He expects an open-ended program in which neither the size nor ending date of asset purchases is fixed. How to play it? Buy TIPs and buy mortgages (or buy the companies that buy mortgages). 4 Comments [Financials, U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, July 10, 2012, 9:42 AM Merrill Lynch quietly tells its clients to prepare for a fundamental geopolitical shift in which western (mostly American) dominance crumbles with nothing ready to take its place. Ideas: Buy ETFs to guard against inflation and higher taxes set to be unleashed by desperate governments. Abandon the idea Treasurys are a special risk-free asset class, and look at the paper of places like Australia and Singapore. 7 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 13, 2012, 3:14 AM Pimco's Total Return Fund increased its exposure to U.S. Treasury-related securities to 35% in May from 31%, and raised its leverage on the $261B portfolio. 2 Comments
Saturday, June 9, 2012, 9:35 AM Interest rates on Treasurys are bound to go up someday, right? Don't be so sure. The bond vigilantes have been tamed, and observers note that private holders have been largely replaced by "uneconomic" buyers who will hold bonds at any price: "The single biggest mistake that smart people have made over the past few years is assuming that interest rates have to go up." 19 Comments [U.S. Economy]

IPE SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF

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SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF