Intrepid Potash (IPI)

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  • commenter
    morgan77
    Jul 22 06:17 PM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    Looks like MON is making a bounce-
    I'm happy to see a few different (and diverse sectors) prepared to go up right now (housing, agr., materials)
    interesting piece about the future here: www.greenfaucet.com/tr...     Reply
  • commenter
    Michael
    Filloon
    (legmaker)
    Jul 14 10:23 PM
    My Website
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    When speaking of the US economy and its being in jeopardy, my main worry is the US dollar. I think if there is a catastrophy of some sort that would cause oil to rip higher(war with Iran) and oil were to go up to $250 a barrel there would be serious problems. If using core inflation is the correct way (I have to trust the likes of Greenspan and Bernanke) then inflation is still in check and we can slowly let the housing bubble run its course. I still believe that the world relies on the United States and if we were to not just have a bear market and a "depression" as I would call it, the whole world will feel it. That is the one thing protecting our living on credit while the world saves. Reply
  • commenter
    Marcus
    Aurelius
    Jul 14 03:43 PM
    My Website
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    I wonder what the thought is about the state of long term rates 10 years out from now is? 30 year mortgages in my locale are currently varying from about 6.25% to 6.75%. A local bank is offering a 10 year arm for about 5.7%.

    This will give us the chance to gobble up a lot of principal and keep an eye for long term rates in the same neighborhood (about the start of this year late last year 30 year mortgages were going for 6% +/- .125%).

    However, if we don't figure out our energy situation I fear interest rates on mortgages may be going back to the way they were in the late 1970s.     Reply
  • commenter
    cyerman
    Jul 14 02:58 PM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    You (MF) say, "I would not say that the state of the US economy is in jeopardy, but it does look to have some problems." Just what circumstances would you list that would indicate that the US economy is in jeapordy (when and if)?
    Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    Jul 14 10:47 AM
    My Website
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    (higher=higher ed) Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    Jul 14 10:46 AM
    My Website
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    That's a good point Paul, but there I think most of us are in 'wait and see' mode. Many fell for the bear rally these last three months thinking the worst was over. Accelerated job losses and lack of lending to NOBODY except for the bigs with substantial collateral told me this was a bear rally. Can't have 51% of our GDP (multinationals and government) barely feeling pain and 49% of Main St. bilked dry and still think our national economy will remain strong. History tells a lot. The real question and one the writer takes a stab at, is will we see depression conditions before it's all through? Times always get better, I predict a massive Bull market in 2020!!!

    Now, what we appear to have is deflation/inflation. We are feeling stagflation at this stage of the pain but it appears things are getting worse. The writer and I feel the same way, there is ample opportunity to make money. Watch the politics of NYC and Washington.

    They are coming to the conclusion JOBS must be created and we must increase our energy supply. How fast this occurs is anybody's guess because neither political candidate looks strong on the economy and nor do we know how taxes will change in the short or mid-term until after elections.

    Overseas looks decent still as does alternative energy, consumer healthcare and tech still holding up and higher will be a big story next year, especially online. Gold should be decent short term and go up nicely in the mid-term. Oil? Yeah... no comment. Those going ultra long wager against the American consumer themself which has been discounted already as fodder. Yes to some extent but Main St. votes and the ire from the constituents cannot nor should no be ignored.     Reply
  • commenter
    paulk8756
    Jul 14 09:57 AM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    You guys are now almost uniformly BEARISH about our economic prospects going forward. That means the market's turnaround cannot be far off. We'll see. Reply
  • commenter
    john s.
    gordon
    Jul 14 08:31 AM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    industrial base erosion in u.s.a began in 1981 with r.reagan's overvalued dollar. the u.s machine-tool industry went down the tubes (unable to compete in world markets) & has never recovered.
    > jack     Reply
  • commenter
    BS Detector
    Jul 14 04:40 AM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    Nova also wrote: "Even American agriculture is in trouble."

    Wait a second, your whole post was in jest, right? You're not actually serious about this assertion, are you?     Reply
  • commenter
    BS Detector
    Jul 14 04:39 AM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    Nova wrote: "Clinton and GW Bush killed US industrial base. Just look at auto, high-tech, appliances, electronics, etc.,"

    Take a few minutes to actually look into this. You'll find that you're wildly off-base. In fact, manufacturing output grew twice as fast during the 1992-2005 period as it did during the 1979-1992 period. Since 1992, motor vehicles and parts production has increased by two-thirds (roughly twice that of GDP growth), and computers and electronics manufacturing have increased something more than 1500%. As for appliances, well, I don't know. But why should they be assembled here instead of in Mexico?

    At least, that's a quick and dirty early in the morning take on it.     Reply
  • commenter
    tommytwotime
    s
    Jul 14 12:40 AM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    I agree with the above, but Freddie and Fannie will fall with or without help from the feds, right? I think they should let them fall too, but either way spells recession which we are already experiencing. I think a depression similar to the 30s needs to be defined by three words. Housing (homeless), jobs (jobless), and food (hunger). The housing issue is present and unemployment is growing. Threatening the food supply could be the perfect storm and there are issues becoming more volatile in that industry. Reply
  • commenter
    Steevo
    Jul 13 05:04 PM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    I think its a reasonable assessment Michael but I'm not sure you were negative enough. I think the consequences if Fannie and Freddie becoming insolvent pose the possibility of something akin to a 1930s scenario. If the government takes them over the government takes their debt which just about doubles our current national debt, just imagine the rise in taxes for starters. If the government doesn't take them over but gives 'support' for a while until they eventually fall, we will not only be in an official recession but very possible a depression.

    Right now is a good time to take gold very serious.     Reply
  • commenter
    nova
    Jul 13 04:27 PM
    My Website
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    " USA has excellent industrial bases". What are you smoking? Do you remember hyper huge trade deficit?

    Clinton and GW Bush killed US industrial base. Just look at auto, high-tech, appliances, electronics, etc.,

    Outside of defense, software and biotech, the USA has nothing. Even American agriculture is in trouble.

    Oh yes, we have Hollywood. Sorry, they have nothing with an industrial base.     Reply
  • commenter
    terrapin
    Jul 13 03:00 PM
    Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part IV) [view article]
    On a purely technical level, healthy bull markets do not develop parabolically. POT undoubtedly is. Also, making comparisons with Nortel and Cisco during the dot com bubble is absolutely apt. Bubbles don't just depend on supply/demand relations, but involve positive feedback loops, herd psychology and the grater fool theory--all of which can be applied regardless off the underlying issue.

    Look at the charts, they tell the whole story.     Reply
  • commenter
    Msccube
    Jul 13 02:55 PM
    US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
    I think the US equity market is facing serious problem.

    Let us compare the current situations with the Japanese situations happened 15 years ago. Japan was facing the burst of bubble economy. They had serious problem with the real estate sector and their banks were carrying huge bad loan.

    Japan 15 years ago:

    1. Japan was the second biggest economy in the world.
    2. Japan was facing the collapse of housing market.
    3. Japanese banks were carrying huge amount of bad loan, and the government tried to save the bank.
    4. Japan had excellent industrial bases.
    5. Japan has had huge amount of foreign reserves.
    6. Japan was not facing high priced oil at that time.

    Today's USA
    1. USA is biggest economy in the world but has larger population than Japan.
    2. USA is facing the collapse of housing market.
    3. USA bank is carrying huge bad loans, and facing credit crisis. The same as Japan, the government wishes to save the banks.
    4. USA has excellent industrial bases.
    5. USA has huge amount of foreign debt, the largest in the world. Don't even think of any foreign reserves.
    6. USA is facing high priced oil today!

    I would say that it makes sense to short S&P 500 and S&P financial index. After 15 years, Japan is not completely recovering from their problems although things are going better.     Reply

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