Intrepid Potash (IPI)

All Comments on IPI

  • commenter
    uwatt
    Oct 03 06:11 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Huh? I was waiting for the last nail and instead got the chirpy "significant value" close. Reply
  • commenter
    zenstar666
    Oct 03 05:26 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Interesting analysis. Totally pessimistic, although ending on a slightly optimistic note. Perhaps the most important reason for the current selloff is the financial crisis, which reason was missing from your analysis. Those reasons you listed as the cause of the decline would not hold water in the absence of this crisis. Can you imagine saying what you are saying now back in June of this year? Reply
  • commenter
    Post
    American
    World
    Oct 03 04:40 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Gentlemen,
    Who doesn't get that it was over last week?

    The rush to the exits ... began.

    The prospects for ANY company's equity price are bleak. Get it? Bleak.

    For your sake, stop looking at a leaf, and see the forest is a smoking hole.

    If it wasn't enough for one to see AT&T was relying on OVERNIGHT financing last week to maintain treasury operations, then no amount of bad news will make it clear.

    Disclosure: 100% double inverse index.     Reply
  • commenter
    BxCapricorn
    Oct 03 04:32 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    And on Seeking Alpha, Trader Mark actually uncovers th gorilla in his post

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Which explains very clearly the dynamics that will make Q4 hard on stocks with real earnings, like the Ag sector.     Reply
  • commenter
    cstauffer
    Oct 03 02:25 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    BxCapricorn hit the nail on the head. However, as a fundamentally based portfolio manager, these situations allow us to either get into companies such as MOS at prices never imagined or average down existing positions, thus building a long position at a much lower cost basis. Reply
  • commenter
    BxCapricorn
    Oct 03 02:08 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    It's amazing how the invisible hand of commodity based hedge fund sell-offs, is ignored. It's the 800-lb gorilla that moves the market, and here we all are, making believe that fundamentals mean something, while making up ridiculous reasons for a stock's performance. Mosaic volume was six-fold normal when it dropped 40%. I would not be surprised if in the future, companies decide that the lack of transparency of the hedge fund players in the US stock market, prompt companies to de-list. The casino that is today's stock market is kabuki theater at its finest. Reply
  • commenter
    Duude
    Oct 03 01:42 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    I'm not seeing anything here speaking of how farmers can manage to get credit to make fertilizer purchases going forward. Its certainly a credit business. Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Oct 03 01:28 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Just looking at the chart of POT indicates to me that it has not bottomed. I don't see any new support until the High $80s on the weekly chart. It would be nice to see a turnaround. Maybe the bailout that just got passed will inspire something. I've heard too many investors talk about selling the news to expect a major bump.There are too many fundamental issues that would conspire against a market rally right now. Credit issues, lack of growth.... The list goes on. Where is the upside support. The fact that POT has a low multiple, or that 'people have to eat' are anecdotal, but not helpful.

    jegan ;-)     Reply
  • commenter
    einstein p
    fleet
    Oct 03 01:13 PM
    My Website
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    There are so many factors at play, it makes your head spin.

    Many people are comparing the "commodity" bubble to the dot com bubble. Frankly, I don't see the comparison at all. MOS may have missed, but they still made 1.2B for the quarter and trades at a forward PE of just over 2. How does one compare that to dot com companies that made little or no money and or were trading at triple digit multiples?

    The build up in inventory shouldn't be a surprise considering the current credit situation. Farmers need credit to purchase seed, fertilizer, and equipment. Purchases have been delayed. Unfortunately, it's the height of planting season. I would be more inclined to worry about food shortages, than the price of MOS --- which is ridiculously cheap, along with the rest of the group.

    In regard to more supply coming on line, I have a couple of thoughts. Firstly, if the business is so bad why would companies like Rio Tinto or BHP Billiton want to get in at the top? To the contrary, I would not be surprised to see BHP make a bid for one or more of these companies instead at current levels. POT is buying back a great deal of their own stock, which they considered extremely undervalued.

    Once the hedge funds are done selling, credit returns to normal, and the market looks at the fundamentals, I'm sure that Mr. Mickey is right. When that will be, however, no one knows. I've been wrong on POT and MOS for 40 points each. Ouch!     Reply
  • commenter
    leh
    Oct 03 12:45 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    manusceo is spot on--this is an institutional and hedge fund liquidation sale. You have to be a damn fool not to see MOS as a steal at these prices IMO, especially if you have an investment window of 1-2 years or longer. Reply
  • commenter
    bobbobwhite
    Oct 03 12:05 PM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Me too, me too, and in conclusion, me too. Reply
  • commenter
    CT
    Programmer
    Oct 03 11:53 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    I think cstauffer is right. This market is NOT FUNCTIONAL. A fwd PE of 2.4? That sounds like a company circling the bowl ready to go into bankruptcy. Connoco Phillips less than 6. RIG at a little above 6. The dry-bulk shippers are all below 3. These aren't fly-by-night companies. We're talking great cash flows and ample growth. Sure, more potash is coming on line. And you know what will happen? More people in emerging economies will add more meat to their diet, which requires 8 times the corn feed as a vegetarian diet. So you'll see demand go up to match. Ag had an incredible run (and I cashed in on a lot of that over the last year with a 100%+ return on YARIY). We won't see that kind of run again. But long-term these (and most of the rest of the market) will bounce back to its normal 15-20 PE range. Even if their current profits get cut in half due to supply increase, I think from their current price they have 100-200% upside. Bottom-fish if you want, but I bought them yesterday and will just sit and wait. Reply
  • commenter
    cstauffer
    Oct 03 11:28 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Thanks for the posts. I am not alone, my sanity is intact. This market has ceased being a functional market and many people are trying to draw conclusions from the price movements of stocks during a time where forced selling is overwhelming rationale buying and pushing stock prices to unimaginal levels. Reply
  • commenter
    Socialism
    cannot
    compete!
    Oct 03 11:24 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    I was long POT and got longer a couple days ago. IMO, the drop was unwarranted. Sure, MOS missed by a bit...but they're *still* looking at tripling earnings over the previous fiscal year. The stock plummets 40%, even though potash pricing is still increasing? Thanks, but I'll hang in and take advantage of the panic selling. The real truth has nothing to do with the author's points, and everything to do with forced selling by the hedgies. Once folks stop panicking and capital flows back into the markets...the ags are going to spike.

    Long POT.     Reply
  • commenter
    manusceo
    Oct 03 11:22 AM
    The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt [view article]
    Down slide almost totally a result of hedge fund unwinds and of course now the analysts jump in with downgrades--even though their targets remain 100-200% higher than current share prices!!! Reply
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links: