Mon, Jan. 19, 5:26 PM
- "Demand for potash and phosphates exceeded our expectations during the fourth quarter," says CEO Jim Prokopanko. "Customers came to the market in force."
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) expects Q4 EPS of $0.83-$0.88, after excluding notable items (which will add another dime to the results) vs. Street estimates at $0.57. The company sees business strengthening further into 2015.
- Full Q4 results are due on February 11.
- Today's news will also be of interest to owners of Potash (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI).
- Source: Press Release
Thu, Jan. 8, 5:52 PM
- Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) is Credit Suisse’s top pick in the basic materials sector, seeing falling oil prices providing huge benefits for SEE and boosting the company’s bottom line in 2015.
- The firm believes better days are ahead for U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), with all the advantages to be among the world's most profitable steel producing companies; its $50 stock price target would represent a double from current levels.
- Credit Suisse lists CF Industries’ (NYSE:CF) favorable capital allocation and free cash flow as positives for the stock.
- The firm suggests avoiding Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI), citing the company’s low free cash flow generation and slow implication of cost-cutting initiatives.
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:54 PM
- Potash (POT +1.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, up from $38, at UBS, citing the company's strong dividend and improving free cash flow.
- UBS says the planned closure of Mosaic's Carlsbad operations in Jan. 2015 and the current flood at Uralkali's Solikamsk-2 mine could remove 2.4M -3.4M metric tons of combined capacity from the market and provides an opportunity for POT to gain more volumes, which also could lead to higher pricing.
- POT’s dividend yields ~4%, and UBS believes it provides downside protection given that the dividend can be funded even if potash prices remain flat; the firm thinks that over time POT may be able to return excess cash to shareholders through an increased dividend or further share repurchases.
- Other potash producers are higher: MOS +2%, AGU +0.4%, IPI +2.6%.
Nov. 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
- Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
- While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
- But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
Nov. 24, 2014, 7:45 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) is preparing to restart operations at half of its potash mine in Russia where work was halted last week after an accident, CEO Dmitry Osipov says.
- The governor of the Perm region where the Solikamsk-2 mine is located says the inflow of water at the mine had "practically stopped" and there is no danger to residents of the area, where a large sinkhole has formed.
- POT -2.6% premarket; also watch MOS, AGU, IPI.
Nov. 19, 2014, 9:55 AM
- A sinkhole is found near Uralkali's (OTC:URALL) Solikamsk-2 potash mine in Russia, where work was suspended yesterday after a water inflow.
- Uralkali does not know how seriously the mine at Solikamsk-2, which accounts for 20% of the company's capacity, would be affected, but a water inflow and resulting sinkhole in 2006 shut another Uralkali mine in the same region permanently.
- North American potash producer shares jumped 2%-5% yesterday, and are up early again today: POT +2.5%, MOS +2.4%, AGU +0.7%, IPI +2.3%.
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:25 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) shares fell by the most in a year after the potash miner suspended operations and evacuated workers from a potash mine in Russia’s Perm region because of an increase in brine inflow.
- The world’s biggest potash producer says it is monitoring the situation at the Solikamsk-2 mine, while its four other mines continue to operate normally.
- Uralkali's misfortune is sparking gains in North American potash producers: POT +5.1%, MOS +3.4%, AGU +3.4%, IPI +5%.
Oct. 29, 2014, 5:53 PM
Oct. 2, 2014, 2:59 PM
- Fertilizer producers are mostly lower after Agrium (AGU -1.9%) announced weak guidance for H2 of its FY 2014: POT -2%, MOS -0.9%, OTCPK:YARIY -2.8%, IPI -2.3%, RNF -1.2%, but CF +2.4%.
- Canaccord and Piper Jaffray downwardly revised their 12-month price targets for the stock, by a respective 1.9% to $102 while reiterating a Buy rating and by 4.2% to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating; however, BMO and RBC each reiterated their Outperform ratings on the stock with respective target prices of $99 and $115.
- Jim Cramer thinks AGU's woes could reverberate throughout the ag sector, at least in the near-term, with selling possibly spread to the likes of Monsanto (MON -0.4%), Syngenta (SYT +0.1%), Deere (DE +0.1%) and Agco (AGCO +1%).
Sep. 9, 2014, 9:16 AM
- Cowen analysts maintain their bearish stance on the agriculture industry and fertilizer stocks, expecting the large crop and significantly lower grain prices to pressure fertilizer prices.
- The firm lowers estimates on all ag names to reflect a reduced fertilizer forecast and downgrades Potash (NYSE:POT) to Underperform from Market Perform as well as Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) to Sector Perform from Outperform; POT -1% premarket.
- Also: CF, AGU, IPI, RNF.
Jul. 30, 2014, 6:02 PM
Jun. 24, 2014, 5:44 PM
- Joining the S&P 500: Affiliated Managers (AMG)
- Leaving the 500: Forest Labs (FRX)
- Joining the S&P MidCap 400: Forest Labs, LaSalle Hotel (LHO), Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM - about to be spun off from Rayonier), TimkenSteel (TMST - about to be spun off from Timken), Belden (BDC).
- Leaving the 400: Affiliated Managers, Intrepid Potash (IPI), Fidelity National (FNF), Greenhill (GHL).
- Joining the S&P SmallCap 600: Intrepid Potash, Greenhill, Synergy Resources (SYRG), Veritiv (VRTV - about to be spun off from International Paper), Sagent Pharma (SGNT).
- Leaving the 600: La Salle Hotel, Belden, JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), Spartan Motors (SPAR), Higher One (ONE).
- AMG +3.3% AH. LHO +1.8%. SGNT +3.3%. SYRG +3%. FNF -1.3%.
Apr. 30, 2014, 5:25 PM
Apr. 29, 2014, 5:35 PM
- AEL, ANAD, ARAY, ARII, ASH, ATML, ATW, AXTI, BCOV, BDN, BGC, BMR, BYD, CACI, CAVM, CBG, CBT, CGNX, CHMT, CJES, CMO, CNW, COHR, CRL, CSII, CW, CWT, DOX, DRE, DRIV, EDMC, EGN, ELGX, ELX, EPAM, EQIX, EQR, EXL, FBHS, FLEX, FLTX, FNF, FORM, GDOT, GLUU, HOLX, HOS, HR, INT, IO, IPI, IRF, IRG, ISIL, JDSU, JKHY, KEG, KEX, KONA, KS, KTOS, LNC, LOCK, LOPE, MAA, MANT, MASI, MDAS, MDU, MET, MTGE, MUR, NBIX, NEWP, NGD, OILT, OPLK, PACB, PDM, PEIX, PFPT, POL, PPC, PRAA, QUIK, RKUS, ROVI, RRTS, SAM, SFLY, SGI, SPRT, SSS, STMP, TEX, TSO, TSRO, TTEK, TTMI, UNTD, VNTV, WBMD, WDC, WLL, WMB, WMGI, WPZ, WTW, YELP.
Mar. 5, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +3.9%) and other fertilizer makers rally as FT reports the two largest shareholders in Uralkali have endorsed the logic of restarting a partnership with the Belarus potash export cartel, opening the door to a deal that would end the potash war that has roiled the industry.
- No formal negotiations have occurred between the two companies about restarting their partnership, but the subject is said to have been mentioned informally.
- AGU +1.5%, MOS +1.8%, IPI +4.3%.
Mar. 3, 2014, 2:35 PM
- Potash producers are bucking the broader stock market weakness, as they stand to benefit if the Ukrainian crisis leads to economic sanctions against Russia.
- Potash is one of Russia’s important export products, Newedge's Robbert van Batenburg notes: “The erstwhile cartel between Russia and Belarus supplied 43% of total global potash demand... Non-Russian potash supplier[s] may benefit from a potential trade sanctions that could impact Russian potash exports.”
- POT +0.6%, AGU +1%, MOS +0.2%, IPI +0.5%, CF +1.7%.
IPI vs. ETF Alternatives
Intrepid Potash, Inc., and its subsidiaries produce muriate of potash, langbeinite and by-products including salt, magnesium chloride and metal recovery salts. The Company owns five active potash production facilities three in New Mexico and two in Utah.
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