Thu, Apr. 23, 10:09 AM
- New homes at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 481K in March were 11.4% below February's revised rate of 543K (originally estimated at 539K). On a year-over-year basis, new home sales rose 19.4%.
- Northeast sales of 20K fell from 30K in February; Midwest 54K vs. 51K; South 267K vs. 317K; West 140K vs. 145K.
- The 10-year Treasury yield slips one basis point to 1.97%. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.35%
- ITB -1.7%, XHB -0.6%.
- Full report
- Previously: PulteGroup -7.8% as Q1 results disappoint (April 23)
- Previously: New home sales see a sharp decline in March (April 23)
Wed, Apr. 22, 10:52 AM
- D.R. Horton posted better-than-expected number for FQ2 (ended March 31), and calls the spring season so far a strong one. Management, however, slightly trimmed its guidance on operating margins for FQ3, and the stock is now lower by 4.8% on the session.
- Previously: Investors take profits after D.R. Horton beat (April 22)
- Lennar (LEN -0.8%), Ryland (RYL -0.9%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -0.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Treasury prices retreat after home sales number (April 22)
Thu, Apr. 16, 8:41 AM
- Housing starts bounced just 2% in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 926K. This followed February's plunge to 908K (originally reported as 897K). Expectations for March were for a rebound to 1.05M.
- Single-family starts of 618K in March were up 4.4% from February's revised 592K.
- Building permits of 1.04M in March fell from 1.1M in February, and were short of expectations of 1.08M.
- Housing starts in the northeast of 101K rose from 47K in February; in the midwest to 126K from 96K; in the south, they fell to 498K from 516K, and in the west to 201K from 249K.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by one basis point to 1.88%.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Full report
- Previously: Lame rebound for housing starts (April 16)
Tue, Mar. 31, 8:32 AM| Comment!
Tue, Mar. 24, 10:08 AM
- New home sales in February at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 539K is the fastest pace in seven years. With January's revision up to 500K (from 481K), it's the fist time sales have hit 500K for two or more consecutive months since early 2008.
- The median sales price rose 2.6% to $275.5K, and inventory stands at 4.7 months of homes on the market at the current sales pace, down from 5.7 months in January.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB +1.1%, XHB +1.1%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.9%), Pulte (PHM +1.8%), Ryland (RYL +1.5%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +1.4%).
- Full report
- Previously: New home sales fly past expectations in February (March 24)
Fri, Mar. 20, 11:38 AM
- A good week for the homebuilders gets better after KB Home's FQ1 cruised through estimates, and the company said recently contracting profit margins are set to turn the other way for the rest of the year (the stock's up 7%).
- ITB +2.3%, XHB +1.6%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +3.6%), Pulte (PHM +2.8%), M/I Homes (MHO +3.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +2.8%).
- Previously: KB Home on the move after earnings beat, margin comments (March 20)
Thu, Mar. 19, 9:58 AM
- Showing why it gets the big dollars, Fitch opines that things could get rocky for homebuilders if the Fed hikes interest rates too high, too fast, though reminding that the situation could look decent in the short-term as higher rates could get fence-sitting homebuilders of the schneid.
- For now, Fitch sticks with its forecast of rate hikes beginning in mid-2015, with the Fed Funds rate hitting 2% by the end of next year.
- Homebuilders (ITB +1%) are adding to yesterday's post-FOMC gains, helped along today by an earnings beat and positive management comments from Lennar.
- Previously: Lennar up 2% after strong fiscal first quarter (March 19)
- Previously: FOMC drops "patient," but sends dovish signal (March 18)
- XHB +0.7%
Tue, Mar. 17, 8:43 AM
- February housing starts (at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate) of 47K in the snow-battered Northeast plunged from 108K in January. In the Midwest, they fell to 97K from 154K, in the South to 514K from 527K, and in the West to 239K from 292K.
- Overall, housing starts of 897K fell 17% from January and 3.3% from a year ago. Single family starts of 593K fell 14.9% from January, and rose marginally from a year ago.
- Full report
- ITB -1.4%, XHB no trades premarket
- Previously: Gotta be the weather ... housing starts tumble (March 17)
Mon, Mar. 16, 10:09 AM
- The NAHB housing market index dropped to 53 in March from 55 previously. It's the lowest print since July.
- NAHB chief economist David Crowe says it's supply issues - lot and labor shortages - along with still-tight underwriting standards behind the decline.
- As is the usual outlook among those in the industry, Crowe sees good things ahead as the weather warms.
- The ITB has given back a chunk of its early gains, now higher by 0.15%. XHB +0.25%
Thu, Mar. 5, 11:20 AM
- First-time homebuyer budgets (how much they're willing to spend) are up 24% vs. 2014, according to Bank of Montreal's (U.S.) homebuying report, and the expected down payment slips to 13% from 16% a year ago. 77% of those surveyed have made "lifestyle cutbacks" to save for a home vs. 72% in 2014.
- Turning to Texas and the effect of the energy crash, Susquehanna checks show the spring selling season is shaping up to be stronger than last year. The team visited entry-level offerings from D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Pulte Group (NYSE:PHM), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), and Beazer (NYSE:BZH), and found things "surprisingly strong."
- The news supports management views of higher sales and margins, says Susquehanna, and many builders indicate price hikes of 3-5% in recent months given the strong demand. The team also notes getting a mortgage seems like less of an issue, labor is still tight, and rental costs are, in part, behind the boosted entry-level interest.
- ETFs: XHB, ITB
Tue, Feb. 24, 11:09 AM
- Toll Brothers cruised past FQ1 estimates and boosted guidance, and Meritage Homes reported big increases in new orders in January. Both of those names are ahead more than 3%.
- ETFs: ITB +1.85%, XHB +1.1%
- Others: Lennar (LEN +2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.4%), Ryland (RYL +1.8%), KB Home (KBH +2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.4%).
Mon, Feb. 23, 10:51 AM
- Existing home sales fell more than forecast in January, sliding to the lowest seasonally-adjusted annualized rate since April.
- Previously: Treasury yields head south following soft home sales report (Feb. 23)
- Compass Point throws in the towel on its Outperform calls on Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%) and Beazer Homes (BZH -1.4%), downgrading both to Neutral.
- ETFs: ITB -0.7%, XHB -0.15%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.5%), Lennar (LEN -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.7%), Ryland (RYL -1.3%), D.R. Hoton (DHI -0.8%).
Tue, Feb. 17, 11:34 AM
- The NAHB Housing Market Index slipped to 55 in February, it's poorest showing since October, but sill above the expansion/contraction level of 50.
- Breaking it down by regions, the Northeast actually posted a 5-point improvement to 48, but the Midwest had a big 10-point fall to 49. The West and and South were roughly unchanged. The only other month since 2004 were sentiment fell so far in the Midwest was February of last year ... got to be the weather.
- The traffic subindex (for all regions) fell to 39 from 44.
- ITB -0.3%, XHB -0.15%
- Previously: Builder confidence slips in February (Feb. 17)
Fri, Feb. 6, 3:05 PM
- With the 10-year Treasury yield ahead by 12 basis points to 1.94% and short-term interest rate futures moving quickly to price in one more rate hike this year, the homebuilder names are instead choosing to focus on the strongest 3-months of job growth in this country in nearly 20 years.
- Previously: Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? (Feb. 6)
- The ITB is up 1.95% and the XHB - more weighted towards suppliers rather than homebuilders - is up 0.6%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.9%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Ryland (RYL +1.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.2%), KB Home (KBH +2.8%).
- Standard Pacific (SPF +5.7%) is the strongest of the bunch after beating Q4 estimates last night. Net new orders of 978 in Q4 rose 11% Y/Y, with the ASP up 10% to $491K.
- Previously: Standard Pacific beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (Feb. 5)
Thu, Jan. 29, 10:18 AM
- Both PulteGroup (PHM +5.3%) and Ryland (RYL +3.8%) beat earnings estimates, with Ryland's gross margins nicely higher, but Pulte's slimming some.
- Pending home sales unexpectedly cooled in December, but Y/Y comps are starting to get easier, and the 11.7% Y/Y gain was the highest since June 2013.
- ETFs: ITB +2.2%, XHB +1.3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.6%), KB Home (KBH +4.9%), Beazer Homes (BZH +2.9%).
- Previously: PulteGroup edges higher after earnings beat (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Ryland selling prices and margins rise from last year (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Pending home sales unexpectedly drop (Jan. 29)
Tue, Jan. 27, 10:20 AM
- December new home sales coming in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 481K was the strongest print since June 2008, notes the WSJ's Nick Timiraos, but the 2014 total of 435K only edged higher from 2013's 429K.
- In 2007, new home sales totaled 776K. At the bottom in 2011, they were 306K.
- ITB -1.2%, XHB -0.6%
- Previously: New home sales strong in December (Jan. 27)
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