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SPDR Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF

6/19/2013, 6:17 AM ET

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Monday, June 17, 12:56 PM More from Zulauf at Barron's: Taking issue with the gathering consensus of a stronger economy and the Fed pulling back, Zulauf suggests bond yields (TLT, TBT) may have stopped rising and could be set to fall. In conjunction with that view, noncyclical names (XLU, XLV) could be set for a comeback at the expense of cyclical sectors (XLV, XLB, XLE). Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Friday, June 14, 2:37 PM The anti-QE rhetoric is building just in time for next week's FOMC meeting, as Guggenheim's Scott Minerd channels his inner Bill Gross, calling the Treasury market (TLT, TBT) a "ponzi scheme." "The only reason investors would buy Treasurys today is that they expect the Federal Reserve will buy them at higher prices in the future," Minerd tells clients. The longer the Fed's bond buying continues, "the more volatility-inducing pressure will build." 13 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 13, 1:10 PM Treasury prices (TLT +0.6%) slide off the session highs as the 30-year auction prices the long bond at 3.355% vs. the when-issued yield of 3.324%. Stocks don't seem to mind, the S&P (SPY +0.7%) climbing to about the day's high. 3 Comments
Wednesday, June 12, 10:15 AM As a shaky bond market (TLT -0.8%) helps snuff out an early rally for stocks, Bill Gross reminds the Fed isn't hiking rates for years, and it makes intermediate-term Treasurys a buy at yields greater than 2%. The 10-year yield is up 3 bps to 2.22%. Treasury ETFs (long and short) in the 7-10 year range: IEF, PST, ITE, TENZ, TYNS, UST, VGIT, TBX, GVI. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, June 11, 10:19 AM Price matters and even though Bill Gross declared the secular bond bull market over 6 weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury (TLT) north of 2.2% is starting to hold some appeal. It's a "decent environment to earn your carry," he says. The Total Return Fund (BOND ... is not as vulnerable as investors believe it to be as witnessed in May." Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, June 11, 7:15 AM Bond yields stay on the rise, the 10-year Treasury up 5 bps to more than a one-year high of 2.27%. The long bond is up 2 bps to 3.4%. TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.6% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 6, 7:28 AM Add SocGen's professional bear Al Edwards to those doubting (previous) an imminent tapering: "I might be wrong, but I just don't see this economy as healthy," he tells CNBC. "If I am right than any sharp rise in bond yields (TLT) should quickly derail this apology of a recovery." The monthly jobs report (25 hours away) is definitely popcorn-worthy again. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 5, 8:22 AM Stock index futures shave a little from losses as Treasury prices rise following the weak ADP print. In addition to the soft 135K in job gains, April's increase is adjusted down by 6K to 113K. ADP's Carlos Rodriguez notes an increase of 5K construction jobs in May was offset by 6K jobs lost in manufacturing. SPY -0.2%, TLT +0.7% premarket. (full report) Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, June 4, 4:49 PM More Gundlach (previous): "If we put another 60 bps onto yields in the month of June like we almost did in May, I think there is no way you would see markets continue to digest it in a calm fashion," he says, making the case for Treasurys (TLT, TBT). Somewhere in the area of 2.35% on the 10-year (2.13% now) would force the Fed's hand and you might even see expanded QE. Comment!
Tuesday, June 4, 12:31 PM "Current conditions represent a buying opportunity for bonds (TLT, LQD) says Jeff Gundlach, appearing on CNBC. Higher interest rates will prove too damaging to certain sectors and he expects the 10-year Treasury - currently at 2.13% - to head back below 2% into the summer and fall. Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ)? In the mid-12s, it's a buying opportunity. Apple (AAPL)? He was a buyer in the low $400s and $500 is a chip shot, but it may never see $700. Chipotle (CMG)? He never got filled on his short at $380, but would give it a shot again. 9 Comments
Monday, June 3, 8:47 AM Did Apple's (AAPL) mammoth $17B bond sale mark the top for bonds? Ten-year Treasury yields bottomed for the year at about 1.62% right at the time of the offering and have gone vertical since (currently at 2.16%). A back-of-the-envelope calculation finds the company pocketing $724M in savings over the life of the paper by borrowing at the end of April vs. the end of May. TLT -7.6%, LQD -3.7% during May. 3 Comments
Friday, May 31, 7:02 AM "It's hard to believe that the greatest bond bull market in history will end without some bloodshed," writes BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "Risks of a bond crash are high." He notes major breakouts to the upside in equity markets often coincide with "major inflection points in bond yields." Treasurys this morning are taking a breather from recent losses, the 10-year yield off 4 bps to 2.07%. TLT +0.5% premarket. 6 Comments
Wednesday, May 29, 8:29 AM Treasurys are no longer a sell, says Goldman, closing out its (highly profitable) short in the 10-year note this morning. (via Doug Kass). Higher earlier, the 10-year yield is now 1 bp lower on the session at 2.15%. TLT +0.7% premarket, TBT -0.9%. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 29, 7:12 AM Treasury prices (TLT, TBT) are getting no bounce from declining equity markets worldwide, the yield on the 10-year rising another 2 bps to 2.18%. The belly of the curve (FIVZ, IEI, TBZ, VGIT) gets it worse, with the 5-year jumping another 5 bps to 1.07%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, May 28, 10:29 AM Stocks are at session highs following the Consumer Confidence beat, the DJIA (DIA +1.4%) up 214 points. In addition to the bounce to 76.2 for the composite, the Present Situation Index rose to 66.7 from 61 and Expectations jumped to 82.4 from 74.3. The labor market outlook is more upbeat, with those expecting more jobs in coming months rising to 16.8% from 14.3%. Treasurys (TLT -1.2%) sell off, the 10-year yield touching a 2013 high of 2.08%. 12 Comments
Tuesday, May 28, 4:20 AM It was an ugly day in fixed-income - (TLT -2.6%), (LQD -1%) - the 10-year Treasury yield up 15 bps to a 13-month high of 2.16%. Maybe more troubling for those borrowing short and lending long is a 12 bp jump in the 5-year yield to 1.01% (its up from 0.65% in a month), and a 4 bp pop in the 2-year yield to 0.28%. It was shoot first, ask questions last for many income plays such as mREITs (MORT -2.8%), equity REITs (HCN, HCP), utilities, and leveraged income funds (PHK). Owners of the leveraged short Treasury Fund (TBT +5.3%) throw a party, now up 16% in a month. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Financials]

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