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Saturday, June 15, 11:36 PM UBS thinks it may be 1994 all over again. Some similarities: The Fed's actions to reflate the economy post-2008 resemble the easy money policies that were put in place post-S&L crisis; current "lackluster" economic growth mirrors "mini-cycles"of '90-'93; 290 bps plunge in Treasury yields from '07-'12 reminiscent of 400 bps decline from '90-'94; downtrend in CPI over the past five years resembles drop from early '90s to '94. UBS' advice: Avoid "popular convergence trades" such as EM credit (EMB, EMLC), EU periphery sovereign debt (ITLT, ITLY), U.S. MBS (MBB,VMBS), and high yield (HYG, JNK). 2 Comments
Sunday, June 9, 10:48 AM Bazooka or water gun? FAZ claims the ECB "has communicated to the [German] Federal Constitutional Court" a limit of €524B for its OMT program. The court is set to evaluate the legality of OMT and the ESM in public hearings next week. The ECB was quick to issue a statement via Reuters denying the claim: "There are no ex-ante limits on the amount of OMT," the bank says. On watch are Italian (ITLT, ITLY), Spanish, and other periphery bonds. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, May 21, 5:57 AM Italy's former technocratic leader Mario Monti doesn't agree with George Soros and others who say the stability in the Italian bond market (ITLY, ITLT) is merely the proverbial calm before the storm. The ECB is better equipped now than previously to handle disruptions in the sovereign debt market, Monti says, adding that in his opinion, the steep decline in yields on Italian sovereign debt is sustainable. Monti also predicts that another election is not imminent in Italy as electoral law reform will take at least six months to complete. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, May 20, 6:03 AM A report out of Italy showing industrial orders rose 1.6% in March (handily beating estimates and reversing a 2.5% decline in February) helped push the spread between 10-year German bunds (BUND) and comparable Italian government debt (ITLY) to its narrowest level (250bps) since January at one point on Monday, as investors pared safe haven bets. Meanwhile, yields on Slovenian 10-year bonds fell slightly early on, defying Fitch's downgrade. Of course, the ratings agency is still "far behind the market's assessment of Slovenia's creditworthiness," one economist says, adding that as long as S&P maintains its A- rating, Slovenian banks can still pledge their government bonds as collateral in ECB liquidity ops. Comment! [Global & FX]
Sunday, May 12, 6:42 PM Italy is no longer "master of its own destiny," says George Soros, referring to what he believes is the country's perpetual dependence on coordinated action from its EU partners and the ECB. Speaking to an audience in northern Italy, Soros predicted the respite Italy has seen in terms of borrowing costs (ITLY) and spreads to German bunds "will not last long [as] the situation is far from being in balance." Last week, Italy auctioned 12-month bills at a euro-era record low yield. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Friday, May 10, 6:23 AM How quickly things change. Italian bonds (ITLY), which less than a year ago were pricing in the apocalypse, are now perceived as safer than they have ever been , as Italy sells €7B in 12-month bills at an average yield of 0.703%, the lowest since the country's adoption of the euro. (Also: Spain's borrowing costs fall) 1 Comment
Friday, May 3, 5:28 AM Yields on eurozone sovereign debt fall across the board in the wake of the ECB's rate cut as investors react to Mario Draghi's perceived willingness to cut the deposit rate below zero, something policymaker Ewald Nowotny dismissed as not a near-term option. Yields on French, Austrian, and Belgian bonds hit record lows as spreads against safe haven German bunds (BUND) compress in Italy and Spain. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, April 29, 6:25 AM Italy's borrowing costs fall at auction as the country raises €3B in 10-year bonds and €3B in five-year paper. Yields were 3.9% on the 10 and 2.84% on the five. The country's new economic minister has promised to drive down the yields on the country's debt (ITLY). Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, April 29, 6:13 AM Italian stocks (EWI) rally 1.12% the day after the country's new prime minister was sworn in amid gunfire. The country struggled to install a government and teetered on the verge of political deadlock following fractious elections in February and five inconclusive presidential votes earlier this month. New economic minister Fabrizio Saccomanni has ambitious plans for lowering yields on the country's sovereign debt (ITLY). Comment! [Global & FX]
Sunday, April 28, 3:54 AM Italy has a new government after Prime Minister-designate Enrico Letta of the left-leaning Democratic Party (PD) forged a coalition agreement with Silvio Berlusconi's right-of-center Freedom party (PDL). The uncertainty had roiled markets at various points since elections in February, so it's worth watching EWI, ITLT and ITLY. The government includes Bank of Italy director general Fabrizio Saccomanni, who is close to ECB Governor Mario Draghi. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Top Stories]
Tuesday, April 23, 6:12 AM Italian 10-year bond yields fall 11 bps to 3.98%, dropping below 4% for the first time since November 2010. The decline in yields comes as European stock markets rise amid an improvement in some eurozone PMI data, although the picture is still grim. FTSE Mib +0.9%. Comment! [Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Monday, April 22, 5:21 AM Milan shares are +2.2% and 10-year bond yields are -9 bps at 4.13% after Italian parliamentarians voted to re-elect 87-year-old Giorgio Napolitano as President. Speculation exists that Napolitano only agreed to take on the role again on the condition that a coalition government will at last be formed. However, a new election can't be ruled out following the resignation of the leader of the center-left Democratic Party after its candidates for president were rejected. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Wednesday, April 17, 8:56 AM Following a nearly 3-week period in which DB halted creations for 26 ETNs on which it's the indexer, the bank finally resumed creations on the notes yesterday. The affected notes follow: BDD, BDG, BOM, BOS, BUNL, BUNT, DEFL, DGP, DGZ, DOD, DTO, DZZ, INFL, ITLT, ITLY, JGBD, JGBL, JGBS, JGBT, LBND, OLO, SBND, SZO, UDNT, UUPT, WMW. 1 Comment
Monday, April 15, 4:24 PM The Italian government's decision to repay €40B in arrears of the more than €100B owed to its corporate sector may help revitalize the economy, but it will also mean raising the amount of debt the country's Treasury will have to issue in 2013 by €20B. The good news: demand was strong for a new retail bond issue aimed at tapping "household savings," as Italy raised €9B Monday. Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 10, 10:39 AM What austerity? Italy says its debt to GDP ratio will hit a record 130.4% this year and at 129% will be nearly 6 percent higher in 2014 than previously forecast. The debt hikes partly reflect a €40 payment to the country's private sector aimed at partially settling a near €100B outstanding balance owed to private companies by the government. 3 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, April 5, 4:56 PM Bridgewater is concerned about Italy. In a letter titled "Could Italy Blow Up The Euro?," the world's largest hedge fund notes that "economic conditions in Italy are as depressed as they've been since the end of WWII," a situation which has invariably led to a "pretty chaotic" political situation. Perhaps most importantly, Italian bank CDS spreads are rising, bad news since "the sovereign is pretty reliant on those banks to buy [government] bonds." Remember: Draghi has "no plan B." 1 Comment [Global & FX]

ITLY PowerShares DB Italian Treasury Bond Futures ETN

ITLY

PowerShares DB Italian Treasury Bond Futures ETN