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Tuesday, April 16, 8:57 AM Stocks are "far from the overextended levels that prevailed at the prior peaks," says BAML, comparing the S&P 500 (SPY) today to March 2000 and October 2007. Earnings and dividend yields today are far higher; PE ratios, Price/Book, EV/EBITDA are all lower. "Third time a charm?" 1 Comment
Monday, April 15, 3:50 PM Calling recent stock market action a "buying stampede" unlike anything he's seen in more than 50 years of watching markets, Jeff Saut says the investors he talks to believe the rally is "artificially induced" and is set up for a crash. The big picture: QE remains, profits have risen along with stocks, the Advance/decline line has broken out to new highs - "there is nothing in the 'tea leaves' suggesting a repeat of double-digit declines" seen in the past 3 springs. 15 Comments
Monday, April 15, 12:38 PM The S&P (SPY) and Dow (DIA) have continued to notch record highs, but small caps (IWM -3%) - which led the way higher for much of the year - rolled over a few weeks ago and are falling especially sharply today. Technicians fret. 1 Comment
Friday, April 12, 4:35 PM Goldman follows up on last night's 16,000 Nikkei prediction with a 1900 target for the S&P 500 (SPY) by the end of 2015. The firm posits a scenario wherein pretty much everything that can go right, does: U.S. stocks will see "strong earnings growth, good dividend yield, and expansion in multiples" on their way to +9% annual returns. As for the risk to stocks posed by Fed tightening, GS notes that "historically, increases in yields from low levels driven by better growth have been associated with rising rather than falling" equities. What about rising rates coupled with anemic growth? 1 Comment
Friday, April 12, 11:38 AM "We capitulate on our 'correction call,'" says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, bullish again after a brief foray into the bearish camp. Lee says the economy is stronger than he anticipated and even weak data (see retail sales earlier) is being "looked through." 10 Comments
Friday, April 12, 8:45 AM The 10-year Treasury yield falls 5 basis points on the session to 1.74% following the weak retail sales print. TLT +1.1% premarket, with the last month's big rally in bond prices bringing it back to flat YTD. S&P 500 (SPY) futures dip to a session-low, -0.5%. The QQQs off 0.5% premarket. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
Friday, April 5, 9:16 AM The 10-year Treasury yield sinks to 1.68% - the lowest level since December - in wake of the jobs report. The so-called Great Rotation out of fixed income and into equities has reversed dramatically over the past 5 weeks. TLT +2.4%, SPY -1.2% premarket. Today's WSJ has a piece about bond-oriented hedge funds reshaping themselves into equity players. Can't make this stuff up. 8 Comments
Thursday, April 4, 7:06 AM Stock index futures (SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.4%) post gains after the BOJ outdoes the Fed with the breadth of its stimulative efforts. The Nikkei's 3.2% gain looks even more impressive when considering the index was off 2.3% before the central bank announcement. DXJ +4% premarket. Comment!
Monday, April 1, 1:38 PM The S&P 500's (SPY) in Q1 run was the 13th double-digit gain since 1928, according to Bespoke. In 11 of those instances, the index posted gains for the remainder of the year. The two losing years, however, were doozies, with the S&P falling 15.3% and 39% through the remainders respectively of 1987 and 1930. 8 Comments
Monday, April 1, 8:36 AM S&P 500 (SPY) records now and then: Corporate profits are 13% higher today than October 2007, says BAML's Savita Subramanian, concluding stocks are "still playing catch up to fundamentals." Additionally, the index's dividend yield is 30% higher now and the P/E ratio is well-below levels of 2007 and 2000. "Waiting for a better entry point can be dangerous," she advises. 6 Comments
Tuesday, March 26, 10:50 PM Sentiment indicators tend to work best at bottoms, writes The Fat Pitch, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what's become a bit of froth in the bull camp. Low cash levels, rising margin debt, prominent bears capitulating, and the return of the Dow 36K crew have been well-documented. One you might not have heard of is the Canadian equivalent of Time screaming "BUY!" on its cover. 3 Comments
Tuesday, March 26, 3:57 PM Nomura's incorrigible bear Bob Janjuah says S&P to dip 5-10% in Q2 before hitting new nominal highs in Q3. Janjuah remains "as convinced as ever" that bullishness will "come under extreme pressure" late in the year. For now he recommends "getting short risk at a S&P level of 1550 … looking for a move down to 1450." 8 Comments
Tuesday, March 26, 11:49 AM Now that all the former bears have caught up to his bullish price target on the S&P 500, Canaccord's Tony Dwyer ratchets his forecast up to 1760, a 13% gain from here. At the moment it's "obvious" stocks are due for a correction, he says, but it will make a wonderful buying opportunity. 2 Comments
Monday, March 25, 9:48 AM iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) announces quarterly distribution of $0.3778. 12-month yield of 2.17% (as of 02/28/2013). For shareholders of record Mar. 27. Payable Apr. 01. Ex-div date Mar. 25. Comment! [Dividends]
Thursday, March 21, 12:25 PM Yet another bear has seen enough, with David Rosenberg sounding bullish on U.S. stocks. "The Fed matters ... The Fed has always mattered," he says, noting Bernanke's likely replacement - Janet Yellen - is more dovish and more pro-QE than the chairman himself. "The key for the U.S. is recognizing that demand for income-generating securities is going to be very strong." (Previous: Other bears give in) 2 Comments
Thursday, March 21, 10:48 AM Jefferies' David Zervos has been as apocalyptic as they come (I, II) with regards to Cyprus, and his latest note says the country's eurozone exit (now openly talked about at the EU's highest levels) could be a Lehman-style systemic event. He sees about a 20% chance of such next week. "The risk/reward for chips on the table stinks; that's why I'm on the sidelines." 1 Comment [Global & FX]

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iShares S&P 500 Value Index ETF