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Thursday, March 21, 12:25 PM Yet another bear has seen enough, with David Rosenberg sounding bullish on U.S. stocks. "The Fed matters ... The Fed has always mattered," he says, noting Bernanke's likely replacement - Janet Yellen - is more dovish and more pro-QE than the chairman himself. "The key for the U.S. is recognizing that demand for income-generating securities is going to be very strong." (Previous: Other bears give in) 2 Comments
Thursday, March 21, 10:48 AM Jefferies' David Zervos has been as apocalyptic as they come (I, II) with regards to Cyprus, and his latest note says the country's eurozone exit (now openly talked about at the EU's highest levels) could be a Lehman-style systemic event. He sees about a 20% chance of such next week. "The risk/reward for chips on the table stinks; that's why I'm on the sidelines." 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 19, 10:54 AM Dollar (UUP) bullishness of 72% of respondents reached the highest level in the history of BAML's fund manager survey. At the same time, bearishness on U.S. stocks (SPY) reversed, with a net 5% calling the U.S. the market it most wishes to overweight vs. 19% underweight in January. (PR) 3 Comments
Monday, March 18, 3:20 PM Is an overbought market reason to sell? The S&P 500 (SPY) actually outperforms across a range of periods following a move 10% above its 200-day moving average, writes Ryan Detrick. Still he notes, the last 2 times the S&P was this overbought brought nasty corrections - the index nearly 10% lower 6 months later in each instance. 3 Comments
Monday, March 18, 12:19 PM Another prominent bear throws in the towel, with Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker upping his year-end S&P estimate to 1600 from 1434 previously. "The debate isn't whether consensus (earnings) estimates are too high ... the debate is, will anyone care." Previous: Richard Russell wants in, and Greenspan calls stocks significantly undervalued. 5 Comments
Monday, March 18, 10:12 AM Some green enters the screen a half hour after a big down open, with Apple and Hewlett-Packard (after an upgrade) notably higher. Not surprisingly banks are feeling the brunt of what's left of the EU bank-induced selloff, the XLF -1.4%. SPY -0.8%, DIA -0.4%, QQQ -0.6%. Europe's about 1% off the lows, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) -1.5%. 4 Comments
Monday, March 18, 4:57 AM Ron Rowland offers additional highlights on the recently expanded lineup of commission-free ETFs over at Fidelity including the following caveat: Funds not held for 30 days by retail investors or 60 days by RIAs using Fidelity as a custodian will be subject to a $7.95 per-trade commission. Some RIAs have complained that the longer holding period directed at them is unfair. Rowland spells out the full list of affected ETFs here. Comment!
Wednesday, March 13, 12:24 PM Another Tepper rally? The hedge funder remains bullish, telling CNBC he sees a 20% return for the S&P this year (we're already about halfway there), and maybe more should the economy deliver an upside surprise. SPY adds a couple of ticks, now +0.1%. 1 Comment [Breaking News]
Wednesday, March 13, 10:24 AM The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." 7 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 3:13 PM Soaring margin debt (and plunging cash balances) trigger a sell signal at BAML, which says the last time this big a move happend was April 2010 - just ahead of a 2-month, 16% decline in SPY. Alongside this is short-term sentiment which has risen to levels consistent with selloffs in the past. 25 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 10:35 AM Is March 2013 90s month on the Street? Joining the Dow 36K guys in reemerging is Jeremy Siegel, calling for Dow 16K-17K this year and 18K in 2014. It's the old "cash on the sidelines" argument - it never goes out of style. "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline," wrote John Hussman last week. 4 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 9:48 AM The trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500 (SPY) has creeped up to 15.25 from just above 13 late last spring, writes Bespoke. There's nothing unusual about rising valuations during rallies, they say, but keep it on your radar. Contributing most of late to rising multiples have been Staples (XLP) and Discretionary (XLY), but dividend favorites Telecoms (XTL) and Utilities (XLU) continue to trade at nosebleed (for them) valuations. 3 Comments
Monday, March 11, 8:59 AM Share buyback activity is the best contrarian indicator out there, says Jeff Macke, peaking at market tops and bottoming at lows. Right now? The dollar amount of buybacks isn't particularly high or low. 3 Comments
Sunday, March 10, 6:15 AM In the two decades through December, the average return of all investors in U.S. stock mutual funds was an annualized 4.25% vs 8.2% for the S&P 500. That translates into a difference of $25,467 for an investment of $10,000. "The dismal truth is that over the long run, the average person is a woeful investor," writes the NYT's Jeff Sommer. 42 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 8, 8:45 AM SPY adds to gains following the better-than-expected NFP print, now +0.5%. The dollar pops, now +1.6% vs. the yen, +0.7% vs. the euro. UUP +0.6%. The long bond tumbles, falling a full point since the report's release. TLT -1.3%, TBT +2.9%. Homebuilders ETF: XHB +0.7%. Comment! [On the Move]
Thursday, March 7, 3:33 PM "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline. This is what euphoria looks like," tweets John Hussman as the Dow 36,000 authors reemerge, Richard Bernstein says 2013 looks like 1982, and Richard Russell can't believe the bullish patterns he's seeing. 11 Comments

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