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Wednesday, March 13, 10:24 AM The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." 7 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 3:13 PM Soaring margin debt (and plunging cash balances) trigger a sell signal at BAML, which says the last time this big a move happend was April 2010 - just ahead of a 2-month, 16% decline in SPY. Alongside this is short-term sentiment which has risen to levels consistent with selloffs in the past. 25 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 10:35 AM Is March 2013 90s month on the Street? Joining the Dow 36K guys in reemerging is Jeremy Siegel, calling for Dow 16K-17K this year and 18K in 2014. It's the old "cash on the sidelines" argument - it never goes out of style. "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline," wrote John Hussman last week. 4 Comments
Tuesday, March 12, 9:48 AM The trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500 (SPY) has creeped up to 15.25 from just above 13 late last spring, writes Bespoke. There's nothing unusual about rising valuations during rallies, they say, but keep it on your radar. Contributing most of late to rising multiples have been Staples (XLP) and Discretionary (XLY), but dividend favorites Telecoms (XTL) and Utilities (XLU) continue to trade at nosebleed (for them) valuations. 3 Comments
Monday, March 11, 8:59 AM Share buyback activity is the best contrarian indicator out there, says Jeff Macke, peaking at market tops and bottoming at lows. Right now? The dollar amount of buybacks isn't particularly high or low. 3 Comments
Sunday, March 10, 6:15 AM In the two decades through December, the average return of all investors in U.S. stock mutual funds was an annualized 4.25% vs 8.2% for the S&P 500. That translates into a difference of $25,467 for an investment of $10,000. "The dismal truth is that over the long run, the average person is a woeful investor," writes the NYT's Jeff Sommer. 42 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 8, 8:45 AM SPY adds to gains following the better-than-expected NFP print, now +0.5%. The dollar pops, now +1.6% vs. the yen, +0.7% vs. the euro. UUP +0.6%. The long bond tumbles, falling a full point since the report's release. TLT -1.3%, TBT +2.9%. Homebuilders ETF: XHB +0.7%. Comment! [On the Move]
Thursday, March 7, 3:33 PM "Take a mental note - at a point where investors can't possibly imagine how stock prices could decline. This is what euphoria looks like," tweets John Hussman as the Dow 36,000 authors reemerge, Richard Bernstein says 2013 looks like 1982, and Richard Russell can't believe the bullish patterns he's seeing. 11 Comments
Thursday, March 7, 3:17 PM Dow Theorists get chatty as both the DJIA (DIA) and DJ Transports (IYT) set all-time highs yesterday. "I've never seen anything like the action since the 2009 bottom," says Richard Russell. Ryan Detrick says when both averages make new highs near the same time, stocks tend to see strong returns over the following year. 4 Comments
Thursday, March 7, 3:11 PM "The current bull market might be one of the strongest of our careers, says Richard Bernstein, believing the next 4 years may rival the 4 beginning in 1982. Concerns of the current cycle are not unique, he says, saying now as then investors are concerned with the Fed, Iran, slow-growth, and the last decade's poor returns. "Many investors still do not even believe that a bull market is underway." 3 Comments
Thursday, March 7, 10:47 AM The NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment rises to 90.15 for the week ended yesterday. A level over 80 is generally considered overly bullish - 88.1 at the end of the year was called "shockingly bullish" by one sentiment watcher. It subsequently rose to 104.25 by the end of January before February's choppiness brought the number down. 2 Comments
Monday, March 4, 3:25 PM The difference between the Dow 14K in 2007 and now, writes Marty Whitman in his shareholder letter, is the book value of the 30 stocks is 66% higher today. Of more importance, balance sheets are in far better shape. Today, the Dow sells for 2.75x book (stocks in his 3rd Avenue Value Fund are around 0.7%!) vs. 4.6x in 2007. 1 Comment
Monday, March 4, 7:51 AM Short sales on S&P 500 stocks fall to 5.6% of shares available, according to Bespoke. It's the lowest ratio since at least 2007 and compares to a record 12% amid the financial crisis. "When you have a market where investors are all in, there will no longer be short covering," says one money manager. 4 Comments
Sunday, March 3, 9:13 PM Declining breadth - defined by the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average - is flashing a warning, writes The Fat Pitch. In late January, both the index and the breadth measure were rising, but the S&P since has made new highs while breadth has dropped off. This sort of divergence doesn't last for long and tends to be resolved by a 5-10% decline in stocks. 6 Comments
Friday, March 1, 7:54 AM WTI crude oil (USO) joins the euro in reversing a big run higher in January, -1.6% to $90.59, its lowest level of the year. Just for fun, we created a graph of 3 risk markets in 2013 - SPY vs. USO and FXE. While oil and the euro have given up their gains, the S&P continues higher. It's probably nothing. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Thursday, February 28, 4:28 PM Despite today's closing hiccup, the S&P 500 is up in January and February this year. This has occurred 26 times since 1945, notes Bob Pisani, and each time the S&P finished green for the year, with an average gain of 24%. 15 Comments

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