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Thursday, February 21, 8:29 AM "Taking the punch bowl away ... when the music stops, everybody dashes to find a seat ... rushing to the sidelines ... the game has changed." Dennis Gartman is on fire following yesterday's action. Claiming to have been wildly bullish on stocks, he's done an about-face following the FOMC minutes. 4 Comments
Wednesday, February 20, 2:19 PM Stocks remain lower following the more hawkish tone from the FOMC, with a benign loss in the Dow masking more substantial drops in the S&P (-0.5%) and the Nasdaq (-0.7%). Gold (GLD -2.2%) and silver (SLV -3%) leg down to new lows for the session. Bond prices fell on the release, but have now turned positive, TLT +0.1%. 3 Comments
Wednesday, February 20, 10:57 AM More from the Greenlight Re (GLRE) earnings call: Einhorn takes advantage of solid January gains in the investment portfolio, lowering net long exposure to 29% from 39%. "Earnings growth has come to a halt. As the markets continue to advance even as the economy doesn't, we tend to become less enthusiastic." Comment! [Financials]
Tuesday, February 19, 10:29 AM Of the $37.5B of flows into ETFs this year, 92% has gone into stock funds, according to ConvergEx, well above the typical ratio of 65-70%. U.S. stocks garnered the biggest share at 42%, while Japanese ETFs (see WETF) saw 8%. Dividend ETFs (DVY) have received nearly $4B already this year vs. $9B for all of 2012. Previous: "Fear fatigue." Comment!
Tuesday, February 19, 8:02 AM "I think we're seeing fear fatigue," says money manager Darell Krasnoff. Clients of his out of stocks for some time are calling and asking to get back in. It's the same story at Fidelity and Schwab (SCHW), both seeing marked increases in trading activity. The Vix (VXX)? It declines even on days when the markets sell off. 29 Comments
Thursday, February 14, 10:46 AM A strong January forced short-sellers to cover their bets in several prominent ETFs, with both SPY and IWM seeing an 11% reduction in the percentage of their float shorted. The MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) - with heavy exposure to Europe - saw a 24% reduction in shorts. Seeing an increase in activity is the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) - 259% of the fund's float is now being shorted. Comment!
Thursday, February 14, 8:37 AM Stock index futures rebound from sizable losses thanks to the low print on jobless claims and the Berkshire/Heinz deal. By our count, that's two $20B deals announced in February alone. S&P 500 -0.15%. 2 Comments
Wednesday, February 13, 10:42 AM Calling it "macro protection trading," Susquehanna's Chris Jacobson is seeing some take advantage of the low cost of SPY and Russell 2000 (IWM) options to get defensive. Popular is the "put butterfly" which works best in a slow grind lower. He's also seeing "calendar spreads" which protect against a selloff, but then make an owner a buyer if stocks fall too far. 2 Comments
Tuesday, February 12, 9:00 AM Average cash balances remain at 3.8%, but those overweight cash falls to 2% (from 8%), the lowest read since February 2011, according to the BAML Fund Manager Survey. The favorite sector, though, is a defensive one - Pharmaceuticals (XPH), with those overweight it rising to 27% from 11%. Technology (XLK) saw the biggest drop, a 12 points swing lower in those overweight. Comment!
Monday, February 11, 12:37 PM "Asset prices have moved a long way," says the team at Goldman, downgrading global equities from Buy to Neutral. Maybe not yet priced in, they say, is the economic drag from government cost-cutting (what cost-cutting?). Get ready to buy the dips though, as any sell-off should be shallow and short. Comment!
Friday, February 8, 10:11 AM Soaring optimism from investment newsletter writers means losses ahead for stocks, writes Jason Goepfert. Going back to 2000, there have been 9 other times when sentiment rose to these levels, he says, and in each of those cases the S&P was lower a month later, with the median loss 3.1%. In 8 out of 9 cases, the S&P was lower 6 months later, with the median loss 4.25%. 3 Comments
Thursday, February 7, 8:13 AM More from Grantham: Courtesy of the donkey-beatings, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced, but not uniformly so. Pockets of value can be found in emerging markets (EEM) and Japan (DXJ), and the great global franchise companies. Much of everything else is "brutally overpriced," with U.S. stocks selling at an implied negative 7-year imputed return ... As for fixed income - fugetaboutit!." 5 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, February 6, 8:15 AM Insiders are selling at an alarming pace, writes Mark Hulbert, noting the Vickers insider sell-to-buy ratio has jumped to 9.2:1, the highest level since right before summer 2011's big selloff. The ratio was high in December as well, but this could have had to do with upcoming higher taxes. What's the excuse now? 7 Comments
Monday, February 4, 9:08 AM Stock fund inflows - combining mutual funds and ETFs - summed to $77.4B in January, according to TrimTabs, smoking the previous record of $53.7B (when else, February 2000). "We increasingly do not like what we see ... Investors are piling into stocks ... while companies are no longer supporting share prices." (uh, UTX just announced a $5.4B repurchase program). 5 Comments
Monday, February 4, 7:31 AM S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 -0.3% amidst political jitters in the EU-periphery (I, II). The Stoxx 50 -1.1%, led by Italy -2.5% and Spain -2.1%. Comment!
Saturday, February 2, 9:00 AM "We told you so." Seriously? Barron's thumps its chest in the sort of self-congratulatory, bullish article that could give a fan of stocks pause. "If there's a great rotation going on from bonds to stocks, we may be only in the top of the first inning," says Jason Trennert. The 60/40 stocks/bonds mix is out of favor with many institutional investors, notably big college endowments, which now have 27% of assets in stocks vs. 45% a decade ago. 156 Comments

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