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Monday, February 4, 7:31 AM S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 -0.3% amidst political jitters in the EU-periphery (I, II). The Stoxx 50 -1.1%, led by Italy -2.5% and Spain -2.1%. Comment!
Saturday, February 2, 9:00 AM "We told you so." Seriously? Barron's thumps its chest in the sort of self-congratulatory, bullish article that could give a fan of stocks pause. "If there's a great rotation going on from bonds to stocks, we may be only in the top of the first inning," says Jason Trennert. The 60/40 stocks/bonds mix is out of favor with many institutional investors, notably big college endowments, which now have 27% of assets in stocks vs. 45% a decade ago. 156 Comments
Friday, February 1, 10:52 AM If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever. 97 Comments
Friday, February 1, 10:11 AM Stocks move to session highs following the big ISM beat, not to mention better-than-expected sentiment numbers. S&P 500 +0.9% and the DJIA is just 10 points shy of 14K. Treasurys give up most of their post-payroll report gains. Comment!
Thursday, January 31, 9:30 AM Up 5.31% so far this month, the S&P 500 is on track for its best January since 1997 - happy news for the "as January goes, so goes the year" crowd. Maybe of more interest: Apple - the S&P's highest-weighted member - is also the worst-performer, -14.3%. Has there ever been an instance when the index has done so well while its largest holding did so poorly? 7 Comments
Wednesday, January 30, 9:29 AM Ignore plunging consumer confidence at your peril, suggests SoberLook, as stock prices are pretty well tethered to it (or is it the other way around?). In any case, divergences don't seem to last for very long. 7 Comments
Wednesday, January 30, 8:01 AM The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey in a graph shows the sharp rise in bullish sentiment occurring alongside the rise in stocks since mid-November. The bulls are at their highest level since March 2011. The bears are at the smallest since a year ago. 2 Comments
Monday, January 28, 12:17 PM The nearly-always bullish Tom Lee of JPMorgan made news a couple of weeks back by actually sounding cautious. No more, the strategist takes to CNBC to talk about Dow 20K and S&P 500 2.5K in the next 4 years. "There's still a lot of investors fighting the tape ... We still have a taint on owning stocks." 8 Comments
Monday, January 28, 7:27 AM "The bears are gone, extinct, vanished," writes John Hussman, with the only ones remaining being permabears or nutcases. "And yet, the historical evidence for major defensiveness has rarely been stronger." Capitulation is everywhere, he says, with even Alan Abelson telling investors to let profits run until stocks start to go the other way. 6 Comments
Friday, January 25, 12:14 PM We're in the 4th phase of a bull market, Laszlo Birinyi tells the FastMoney gang, and it's typically the strongest phase and lasts nearly a year. Don't forget animal spirits, he says, noting CMG, TIF, ISRG all warned, all got hammered, and all recovered. The sudden flows into stock funds? "I don't subscribe to the theory that the retail investor is the last one in." 7 Comments
Thursday, January 24, 8:07 AM The bullish reading on the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey starts to near an extreme level, rising 8.4 points this week to 52.3%. The last time it was this high was Jan. 2011 - not the worst time to buy, but not the best either. The spread over bears rises to 28 points. 4 Comments
Wednesday, January 23, 9:53 AM A macro headwind for the market - the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turns negative for the first time since late April. It was a pretty good time to lighten up then, as were the last few times this indicator turned from green to red. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, January 23, 6:58 AM Nearly 80% of the individual stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought, according to Bespoke. Looking at a 5-year chart, the group notes this indicator is as mean-reverting as it gets. High levels of overbought stocks tend to move to low levels rather quickly. 4 Comments
Tuesday, January 22, 11:27 AM "It's as good as it gets in the U.S.," a wildly bullish David Tepper tells Bloomberg. "This country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness." Be long the "risk things," he says, and avoid Treasurys, the Swiss franc, and the yen. He's as blunt as ever: "I'd rather work at McDonald's than the sell side." 30 Comments [Breaking News]
Saturday, January 19, 12:30 PM "High-yield bond yields are lower than the S&P's earning yield for the first time ever," says a very bullish Oscar Schafer at the Barron's Roundtable (earlier). He says no one is talking about stocks at cocktail parties, but he does hear conversation about fixed income (that's some party). Pension funds hiding in bonds for "riskless returns" are in for a surprise. 7 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, January 15, 7:42 AM More on the BAML fund manager survey: The survey's gauge of risk-appetite soars to its highest level since Jan. 2004, and is confirmed by manager cash levels dropping to about their lowest level ever. Comment!

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