Jul. 29, 2014, 4:23 PM
- Core earnings of $62.1M or $0.50 per share vs. $0.46 in Q1. Dividend is $0.50.
- Book value per share of $19.80 up 6% from Q1. Today's close of $17.27 is a 12.8% discount to book.
- Effective interest margin of 1.2% is off one basis point from Q1.
- MBS makes up $18.3B of portfolio vs. $17.3B at start of year; residential loans $2.3B vs. $1.8B; commercial loans $95.6B vs. $64.6B.
- Conference call at 5 ET
- Previously: Invesco Mortgage Capital beats by $0.02, beats on revenue
- IVR flat AH
Jul. 29, 2014, 4:08 PM| Comment!
Jul. 3, 2014, 9:56 AM
- A few days ago, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 2.50%, but it's been on the rise all week and shot up to near 2.7% this morning following the strong jobs print and drop in unemployment to 6.1%. Checking the short end of the curve, Eurodollar futures are selling off as well, and now have baked in more than one rate hike between now and one year from now, and 75 basis points of hikes by the end of 2015.
- Previously: Treasury yields jump, gold slumps after strong jobs print
- Off 1.1% today, Annaly Capital (NLY) is down nearly 5% since this time last week, with a similar move having taken place in American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%).
- Chimera (CIM -1.4%), CYS Investments (CYS -1%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -1.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -1.6%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -1.2%), AG Mortgage (MITT -1.8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.7%), Dynex (DX -0.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -0.9%).
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
Jun. 16, 2014, 4:33 PM| Comment!
May. 5, 2014, 7:41 AM
- Core EPS of $0.46 is down a penny from Q4 and stands against the dividend of $0.50.
- Book value per share of $18.53 is up 3.1% from Q4 (after $0.50 dividend), and puts the stock at a 9.5% discount to book.
- Effective net interest margin of 1.21% is off 14 basis points from Q4.
- Leverage slips to 7x from 7.28x.
- CC at 9 ET
- Source: Press Release
- Previously: Invesco Mortgage Capital misses by $0.03
- IVR no trades premarket
May. 5, 2014, 7:31 AM
May. 4, 2014, 5:30 PM
Apr. 25, 2014, 4:43 AM
- The amount that lenders originated in mortgage loans plunged 58% on year Q1 to a 14-year low of $235B, almost entirely due to drop in refinancing. The figures are from industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.
- Loans for acquisitions were flat on year and lower than in Q4.
- The trend is the latest indication that increasing interest rates are hampering the housing recovery. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.5% last week, up from 3.6% in May last year, when rates spiked after the Fed indicated it would scale back its QE program.
- Tickers: DHI, PHM, RYL, MHO, NVR, LEN, SPF, MDC, HOV, TOL ORI, NLY, AGNC, MTGE, ARR, TWO, IVR, CMO, MFA, WMC, FMCC, FNMA, RDN, NMIH, ESNT, GNW
- ETFs/ETNs: ITB, XHB, MORT, MORL, REM, MORT, MORT
Apr. 24, 2014, 10:36 AM
- A check of the mortgage REITs (REM +0.1%) finds not a lot going on stock price-wise following the first Q1 earnings reports from the sector this week (CYS Investments and Hatteras). As expected, book values grew and prepayments remained at a low level.
- Perhaps unexpected was a good deal of caution from CYS management about mortgage prices - right now, it's finding better value in Treasurys, and awaits a pullback in MBS prices before boosting those holdings. "The mortgage market is a little kid playing with matches," said CEO Kevin Grant on the earnings call (transcript). "We just don't know when everybody's fingers are going to get burnt. The traders that play in this market, they know this and they know they are playing with matches."
- Amid the low supply of MBS out there, Hatteras (HTS +0.1%) management on its call (transcript) says it now has 10 originators delivering wholesale product to the company covering more than half of monthly cash flow needs. Up next is expansion into jumbo ARMs.
- Other sector ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Individual names: Annaly (NLY +0.6%), American Capital (AGNC +0.7%), (MTGE +0.2%), Armour (ARR +0.1%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.6%), Invesco (IVR -0.1%), Capstead (CMO +0.3%), MFA Financial (MFA +0.1%), Western Asset (WMC +0.5%).
Apr. 11, 2014, 4:52 PM
Apr. 10, 2014, 11:49 AM
- Lit up bright green as the market's momentum names again break down and lead the averages - and Treasury yields - lower are the mortgage REITs (REM +0.5%).
- The 10-year yield is off six basis points to 2.63% and Eurodollar futures in the last few sessions have rallied strongly, pricing out at least one rate hike between now and the end of 2016.
- CYS Investments (CYS +1.7%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR +1.3%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +1.3%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.4%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.8%), American Capital (AGNC +0.6%), (MTGE +0.5%).
- One day after making a number of additions to its management team - including a couple of hires from the New York Fed - Annaly (NLY +0.5%) is also posting gains.
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
Mar. 19, 2014, 10:14 AM
- A check of the mortgage REITs as dividend announcements continue to roll in finds the sector marginally higher, but Dynex (DX) lower by 1% after cutting its payout by 2 cents to $0.25 per share. Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.3%) and Invesco Mortgage (IVR +0.3%) both held their dividends steady - as has been the norm for the sector this quarter.
- Even with today's decline, Dynex - at $8.95 per share - trades above Dec. 31 book value of $8.69.
Mar. 18, 2014, 4:20 PM| 1 Comment
Mar. 7, 2014, 2:51 PM
- Mortgage REIT fans will be interested in this transcript of a roundtable yesterday led by JPMorgan analyst Matt Jozoff, and including executives from Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.9%), Annaly (NLY -2.4%), MFA Financial, Invesco (IVR -2.5%), and Two Harbors (TWO -1.6%). At a minimum, it makes clear - for those who would lump the sector together - the significant differences in investment approaches and assets held.
- As tipped off during his company's earnings call a few days back, David Finkelstein - head of agency MBS trading at Annaly - sounds the most bullish: "Technicals over the near-term are relatively supportive of MBS, and we also believe that even beyond the Fed’s departure from being a - or from adding to their portfolio, we think that the landscape will still be favorable to MBS due to relatively low volatility the fact that we will not have a significant portion of the MBS market actively hedging their portfolio, which should reduce volatility day to day."
- MFA CEO William Gorin doesn't want any part of long-dated agency MBS: "We came into the year owning zero 30-year agency paper ... which we are happy with. When you are competing with a non economic, non profit maximizing competitor in the space [the Fed] ... we’ve decided not to be in that space."
- Related ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
Mar. 7, 2014, 12:46 PM
- The mortgage REITs are maybe the poorest performing sector amid a big move higher in interest rates, and formerly bullish Deutsche Bank ringing the register on New York Mortgage Trust, CYS Investments, and American Capital Mortgage after nice runs for all have pulled them close to (or above in NYMT's case) book value.
- There's also an earnings miss this morning from one of the last of the players to report Q4, Western Asset Mortgage.
- Annaly (NLY -2.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -2.3%), Armour (ARR -1.4%), Two Harbors (TWO -1.8%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), Capstead (CMO -1.2%), MFA Financial (MFA -2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.7%)
Feb. 24, 2014, 8:07 AM
- Acknowledging Invesco Mortgage (IVR) Q4 EPS fell short of the dividend, analyst Merrill Ross reminds management has been repositioning the portfolio and will likely continue to do so. "It is not easy to shorten duration in a rising rate environment, but IVR was able to accomplish that, as was evidenced in core results."
- While book value fell Y/Y, it rose from Q3, her reminds. "We think this externally managed company can leverage the vast resources of its sponsor to source and monitor residential and commercial mortgage assets as private, non-bank capital plays a vital role in the evolving housing finance market."
- Ross upgrades to Buy with price target lifted to $18 from $17.
- Previous earnings coverage: Invesco moves money out of 30-year fixed rate mortgages and into hybrid adjustables, loan securitizations, and other assets.
- Earlier today: Ross upgrades Two Harbors.
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