iShares S&P 500 Index (IVV)

All Comments on IVV

  • commenter
    rcsam
    Oct 11 04:33 PM
    How Low the S&P 500 Could Go [view article]
    Where were you 6 months ago. Negative comments always come out at or near the bottom. You must adjust for inflation and interest rates. The stock market return is correlated with 30 year treasuries. You haver a choice between Treasuries and stocks. The market only needs to provide a 3% premium to treasuries and they are yielding 4.15%. The required return on stocks is around 7% to adjust for the greater risk of equities. The yield is 2.5% on the SPX so growth must be 4.5%. Is that reasonable? Growth is inflation plus population growth plus productivity gains. You would have to forecast no productivity growth which contrary to the American experience for the past 100 years. If the market were 1/2 of today, the yield would be 4.8% and growth would only need to be 2.2% to get to 7%. If inflation goes to 10% like it did in 1975 then you are right as bond yields would go to 13% which is a 3% premium to inflation and the required return on stocks is 16%. You can do the math were the stock market would sell---lower. We do not have 10% inflation nor the prospect of such. More likely we will have deflation. Reply
  • commenter
    CLH
    Oct 11 03:46 PM
    How Low the S&P 500 Could Go [view article]
    I agree with your article. However, I expect a rally (maybe now which is playable) and then a further downslide. Reply
  • commenter
    couldashould
    a
    Oct 11 03:10 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    101 comments shows why Cramer is on TV. you people watch him apparently even though you hate him. Like craning your neck to see an accident.
    By the way, most investment experts tell us to have at least 2 years set aside before we invest. Cramer is more conservative. His statement, made by Vogel of Vanguard, or Warren Buffett, would have been accepted as wisdom!!!!.     Reply
  • commenter
    Ant
    Oct 11 02:56 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    So, 1 MAN can move Global Markets? Wow...you people are clueless. Stick to stamp collecting. Reply
  • commenter
    bill d
    Oct 11 02:10 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Wow - 101 comments.
    Who was it that said there is no such thing as "bad" publicity ?
    Cramer (and NBC) won't get worried until you all stop talking about him.
    for BBUGS - the double down strategy is not unique to Blackjack - you double your bet after you lose - obviously you have to have very deep pockets. Sort of like dollar cost averaging. You probably lose in the long run anyway.     Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Oct 11 01:33 PM
    My Website
    How Low the S&P 500 Could Go [view article]
    www.qvmgroup.com/inves...

    Since posting my article, the WSJ published an article that makes the same worst case S&P at 400 price level analysis from a fundamental perspective. My post is updated on my blog to contain the relevant excerpt form the article by the Jason Zweig of the WSJ.

    Modified blog post is at link above.     Reply
  • commenter
    bill d
    Oct 11 01:32 PM
    2008 Price Targets Higher Than Mt. Everest [view article]
    You rarely see anyone making long range predictions in the other direction - right ? Reply
  • commenter
    InvestorDash
    boards
    Oct 11 01:15 PM
    My Website
    How Low the S&P 500 Could Go [view article]
    Did the same analysis this morning. For the next 30 years, DJIA oscillates between 7000 and 15000 in periods of about 7 to 8 years. Similar to period 1952 to 1983. Pre 1952 was nice bull run. 1983 - 1998 was nice bull run. Post 2038 should be a nice bull run. Reply
  • commenter
    User 28081
    Oct 11 01:12 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    The "Crammer" (sic intended) is an asshole. I'd like to see them dragged off his show in handcuffs. Reply
  • commenter
    experienced
    Oct 11 01:10 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Cramer over the years has an almost unblemished record of being wrong. If you did the opposite of what he recommended, you would be better off. So I think it is useful to know that Cramer's sell signal, coming after major losses, is probably a buy indicator. There appear to be some major bargains now, especially in energy stocks (oil and gas producers as well as synthetic fuel technology) and high technology, including certain semiconductor and wireless communication markets. Investors should concentrate on companies with little or no debt and a cash flow that allows for generating future capital needs internally.

    Only an idiot would make an across-the-board sell (or buy) recommendation.     Reply
  • commenter
    jim from NY
    Oct 11 12:52 PM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Cramer should be hung upside down on wall street, let investors pay $1 a hit (Going to charity) and beat the living crap out of this ahole.If you look back a year ago, He is WRONG about his picks over 70% of the time! How the hell to they let him have his own show. This is 2008 and still nothing but criminals on wall street including Cramer. Reply
  • commenter
    CLH
    Oct 11 12:30 PM
    On a Return to Normalcy: Dow 8,500 [view article]
    Very good article. However, all of us should understand that we can not go in and out of the market w/o losing money (although Im sure most of you think you can). The majority of the nation sold at the bottom and will not go in again or worse wait for another top to buy. Reply
  • commenter
    rambus
    Oct 11 12:22 PM
    My Website
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Cramer should put his picture on the wall of shame. Number 1. He should learn humiliation at his own price.. Reply
  • commenter
    ezduzit
    Oct 11 11:59 AM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    for those investors who asked to have cramer taken off the air or cnbc censured or general electric taken to the woodshed, i suggest you put a parental lock on the cramer show. as an option, my television has more stations sent to me then i can use. yours does too!

    btw, an english teacher could make a fortune by offering lessons to the majority (i didn't say all) of the posters who cannot come close to parsing a sentence. how can they make a 'reasonable' & 'believable' statement as to how a major corporation & its employees should operate.

    ps: i don't watch the cramer show. it's too noisy     Reply
  • commenter
    stvcomment
    Oct 11 11:45 AM
    Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    In a few years these prices should look pretty good so I want to thank all those sheep that sold on Cramers' advise.

    Why are they watching a show on the market if they need to follow some guys advise that they do not even know ?

    Learn and operate independently. I never thought the Cramer show would last a year. Amazing !     Reply
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