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iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL)

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  • Today, 11:18 AM
    • Out last weekend continuing to believe the S&P 500 could hit 3K this decade, Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker today cuts his 12-month target for the index to 2,200 from 2,275 (it's currently at 1,936). The expected forward P-E ratio is now 16.6x, down 60 basis points.
    • Parker's bull case of 2,425 stands against the previous bull case of 2,600, and the bear case is 1,500 vs. 1,700 previously.
    • In another shift, Parker and team reverse their recommendation to overweight small-cap stocks. "With the less 'risk-on' macro all being made by our economists, we think it is more prudent to skew a bit toward higher-quality and larger-capitalization securities."
    • Morgan expects five rate hikes between now and year-end 2016.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Today, 11:18 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sat, Aug. 29, 8:37 AM
    • The sharp rally from Monday's panicky bottom is typical, says Felix Zulauf in a Barron's interview, and these recoveries tend to last for a few days to a few weeks, before the lows eventually get retested. Thanks to the continuing collapse of the Chinese bubble, it's Zulauf's hunch stocks will take out new lows in the next wave of selling.
    • Like Latin America in the early 1980s, Mexico in 1994, Asia in 1997, and Russia in 1998, China has a balance-of-payments issue. The currencies involved in those instances fell 40-70%. Even if the yuan only falls 30% (it's down 10% already) - with China being the world's largest exporter - the price deflation translates into declining sales, profit margins, and profits for companies across the globe.
    • "Central banks can’t solve the problem by providing more liquidity because liquidity isn’t the issue," says Zulauf. "We have plenty of liquidity; we don’t have enough borrowing capacity." What it means is lower prices, lower inflation, and lower interest rates. "The stock market will have to adjust to this new reality."
    • At the start of the year, Zulauf predicted the Fed wouldn't hike rates in 2015, and he's sticking to that view. A tightening now "will probably send the wrong signal to the market, and at the wrong time."
    • Yuan ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
    • China equity ETFs: FXI, ASHR, CAF, YINN, PGJ, GXC, FXP, YANG, CHIX, CHN, PEK, MCHI, TDF, XPP, YAO, GCH, ASHS, YXI, CN, CHXF, FCA, CNXT, CHNA, KBA, JFC, AFTY, CHAU
    • Broad U.S. large-cap ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Sat, Aug. 29, 8:37 AM | 72 Comments
  • Fri, Aug. 28, 9:12 AM
    • Calling it "Total Risk Surrender" and capitulation, BAML says $29.5B was yanked out of stock funds in the week ended Wednesday, a record since the numbers began being kept in 2002.
    • The action on Tuesday was especially stunning - an outflow of $19B, the most since the global financial crisis (chart here) - and, for now, coinciding with the exact bottom of the current bear move.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Fri, Aug. 28, 9:12 AM | 35 Comments
  • Tue, Aug. 25, 8:14 AM
    | Tue, Aug. 25, 8:14 AM | 59 Comments
  • Mon, Aug. 24, 12:32 PM
    • Stocks are down about 1% (and the Nasdaq just -0.3% as some tech names turn green) -- a bad day on many occasions, but a major clawback from the Dow's 1,000-point-lower opening minutes today, with some more aggressive bargain hunting going on.
    • The Dow's down just 140 now. Advancers at the NYSE are up to just under 200, against nearly 3,000 trading in the red. Apple and Intel are the Dow reps that are in positive ground.
    • The VIX is around 37 after jumping near 50. Earlier, the NYSE invoked Rule 48 (allowing stocks to open without indications) for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis.
    • The dollar is still down against major currencies: -2.6% against yen, down 1.2% against the Swiss franc. The euro was up 1.6% against the dollar. Nymex WTI crude recovered a bit but is still down 3.9% to $38.87.
    • ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, RSP, QID, SQQQ, QLD, CRF, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, VV, USA, SCHX, DDM, VFINX, ZF, QQEW, QQQE, FEX, JKD, EEH, SPLX, SFLA, EQL, QQXT, IWL, SPUU, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, UDPIX, SBUS, OTPIX, RYARX
    | Mon, Aug. 24, 12:32 PM | 51 Comments
  • Fri, Aug. 21, 8:06 AM
    • As of yesterday's close, Dow Theory has flashed the beginning of a primary bear market, says typically bullish technician Ralph Acampora.
    • He notes the DJIA broke its closing low from Dec. 16, thus confirming weakness the Dow Transports which peaked on Dec. 29 (the DJIA peaked on May 19 at 18.313).
    • Typically this bear market signal comes as the market is near oversold territory, says Acampora, so expect a bounce, but use the rally to sell.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS, DIA, DOG, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, UDPIX
    | Fri, Aug. 21, 8:06 AM | 5 Comments
  • Thu, Aug. 13, 3:06 PM
    • "If you think the equity market is heading for a spot of trouble here, the high-yield bond market is having a coronary," says David Rosenberg, noting average yields have jumped 120 basis points since June (while Treasury yields have tumbled), bringing spreads to 580 basis points - a level hit only twice in the last three years.
    • The move in spreads is the equivalent of a 9% correction in stocks, suggesting the S&P 500 should be at about 1,910 now, instead of 2,092. Either the S&P has some serious downside ahead, or spreads are going to have to come back in, says Rosie.
    • Much of the trouble in junk land can be traced to the crash in energy prices, and the spread widening this summer coincides with more than a $15 per barrel decline in the price of oil.
    • ETFs: HYG, JNK, HIX, HYLD, DHY, CRF, PHT, EAD, HYT, JQC, VV, USA, SCHX, CIK, DSU, HHY, SJB, ZF, NHS, PHF, ACP, FHY, MCI, VLT, KIO, ARDC, FEX, CIF, MHY, AIF, ANGL, PCF, DHG, JKD, MPV, EEH, IVH, HYLS, JSD, UJB, EQL, CJNK, IWL, GGM, QLTC, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Thu, Aug. 13, 3:06 PM | 8 Comments
  • Tue, Jul. 14, 10:07 AM
    • The cash level of 5.5% among those fund managers surveyed is the highest since Lehman, says BAML's Michael Hartnett, adding that cash above 4.5% has proven to be a contrarian buy signal in the past.
    • Confidence in the global economy tumbled to 42% from 55% a month earlier - keep in mind the survey was conducted amid the Greek crisis, and the crash in Chinese stock prices. The boosted pessimism surrounding China has led commodity allocations to a six-month low, with emerging market equity allocations at a 16-month low. Gold, however, is being judged as undervalued for the first time in five years.
    • As for European stocks, the appetite to be overweight rises despite the potential for a breakdown in the eurozone.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Tue, Jul. 14, 10:07 AM | 7 Comments
  • Thu, Jul. 9, 9:25 AM
    | Thu, Jul. 9, 9:25 AM | 19 Comments
  • Fri, Jun. 19, 10:00 AM
    | Fri, Jun. 19, 10:00 AM | 20 Comments
  • Tue, Jun. 16, 9:08 AM
    | Tue, Jun. 16, 9:08 AM | 4 Comments
  • Mon, Jun. 15, 11:40 AM
    • Though most are focused on what are sure to be coming rate hikes, says Bank of America's Savita Subramanian, another round of QE could prove a bigger hit to market confidence. "This is not our base case, but is the risk that seems to be getting the least attention."
    • On the Fed's mind could be the case of Sweden - the country's central bank hiked prematurely after the financial crisis, only to be forced to backtrack (the ECB did the same).
    • BofA's base base remains a rate hike this year and 120 bps in hikes between September 2015 and December 2016. It would be the slowest pace of Fed tightening in the last five cycles.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Mon, Jun. 15, 11:40 AM | Comment!
  • Mon, May 18, 12:56 PM
    | Mon, May 18, 12:56 PM | 1 Comment
  • Fri, May 15, 3:54 PM
    • Bubbles can "destroy" contrarian types, say strategists at the bank whose former CEO said, "While the music's playing, you gotta dance" shortly before the financial crisis nearly blew the lender to bits.
    • Today's "new paradigm" could be the idea of secular stagnation, and thus growth, interest rates, and inflation staying persistently low, says the team. This in turn causes inflated prices for anything with growth - biotechs and Internet plays come to mind - or for high dividends.
    • One client's definition of a bubble: "Something I get fired for not owning."
    • Getting a little  more scientific, the strategists define a bubbly price as one two standard definitions above its 10-year mean. While European fixed-income (Italian and Spanish 10-year yields are less than 2%) might fit the bill, not much else on the planet does, says the team, recommending readers become "bubble pragmatists," i.e. dance.
    • ETFs: CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, ZF, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Fri, May 15, 3:54 PM | Comment!
  • Wed, Apr. 29, 2:48 PM
    • Down 0.5-0.7% for most of the session, the major averages have rallied to nearly unchanged with 75 minutes to go in the session.
    • If anything, the FOMC statement leaned hawkish as the central bankers brushed off the Q1 slowdown as weather-related and gave no indication that a June rate hike is off the table.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield was as high as 2.07% this session, but has slipped back to 2.03%. 30-day Fed Funds futures still aren't seeing liftoff until late Q3 or early Q4.
    • Previously: FOMC: Q1 slowdown "transitory" (April 29)
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Wed, Apr. 29, 2:48 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Apr. 27, 7:57 AM
    • “Correction risks will grow in [the] absence of fresh inflows in coming weeks,” write Michael Hartnett and team at BAML, noting U.S. stock fund outflows in nine out of the past ten weeks. The accompanying chart shows (at least to the human eye) since the start of 2013 a fairly strong correlation between the S&P 500 and the cumulative levels of fund inflows - a correlation that has broken down in a big way in 2015.
    • The note then proceeds to totally contradict this idea by pointing out that the year-to-date exit from U.S. stock funds has not been this bad since the same time frame in 2009 - a pretty fair time to go all-in on equities.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
    | Mon, Apr. 27, 7:57 AM | Comment!
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IWL Description
The iShares Russell Top 200 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Russell Top 200® Index.
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