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iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL)

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  • Wed, Feb. 18, 1:06 PM
    • As CIO of BMO Private Bank, Jack Ablin has recommended an overweight position in large-cap U.S.stocks since 2010. BMO is currently 50% overweight the U.S., but is getting ready to sell.
    • "We're going to go from substantially overweighting the U.S. to neutral to underweight,” Ablin tells Howard Gold. "This is a major policy decision ... Over the next three to five years the U.S. is going to take a back seat to international markets.”
    • His reasoning: U.S. stocks are too expensive, and while companies are beating Q4 estimates, analysts have sharply cut 2015 earnings growth forecasts to 2.6% from 8.1% as recently as late last year.
    • ETFs: VUG, VTV, VV, SCHX, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FEX, JKD, EEH, JKE, IWY, EQL, EZY, PWB, IWL, IWX, FTC, JKF, SFK, IELG, ERW, FWDD, RWG, GVT, SYG, SYE, SYV, SBUS, ZLRG
    | 6 Comments
  • Thu, Feb. 12, 9:19 AM
    • A strong weak for stocks had bullish sentiment rising nicely to 40% from 35.5%, according to the AAII survey, but bearish sentiment crashed. It fell all the way to 20.3% from 32.4% - the largest one-week decline in more than three years, says Bespoke Investment. "Investors appear to have breathed a huge sigh of relief after last week's rally in equities."
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, ERW, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG
    | 2 Comments
  • Wed, Feb. 11, 2:46 PM
    • According to the 2015 Legg Mason Global Investor Survey, 85% of affluent U.S. investors say U.S. stocks offer the best opportunities over the coming 12 months - that's up from 74% who said so in 2014.
    • 63% are maintaining their equity allocation, 32% expect to boost it, and just 6% plan to cut equity exposure.
    • Global Head of Marketing Matthew Schiffman: "Overconfidence can lead to a degree of complacency that could prevent investors from paying close attention to their overall financial plan ... Investors have not changed their asset allocation since we started measuring investor sentiment three years ago, which could be another sign of complacency creep."
    • Source: Press Release
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, GTAA, JKD, AOR, EEH, RLY, EQL, EPRO, GAL, DBIZ, MATH, IWL, GIVE, FWDD, ERW, SYE, GAA, SBUS, ZLRG
    | Comment!
  • Mon, Feb. 9, 5:08 PM
    | 3 Comments
  • Dec. 23, 2014, 11:37 AM
    • "This year rhymes with 1998," says David Tepper in an email to CNBC. "Russia goes bad, easing coming from Europe. Sets up 1999 ... [oops] I mean 2015."
    • While not calling for a market top next year, Tepper says to be aware of the chance for markets - currently at fair value in his view - to move to overvaluation. He notes the S&P moved to a 30 P/E ratio in 1999 vs. a current forward P/E of just 16.
    • "Worldwide money [was] made too easy for where U.S. fundamentals were both in late 1998 and 2014," he continues. Those viewing this morning's revision to Q3 GDP growth all the way up to 5% might nod in agreement.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 16 Comments
  • Dec. 11, 2014, 3:17 PM
    • High-yield prices are off 2.4% this month and 5.7% since Labor Day even as U.S. equity markets continue to carve out new record highs. "The big question is whether oil’s problems are going to stay local or whether they’re going to spread out," says one fund manager.
    • More metrics: Dollar-denominated high-yield bonds now yield an average 120 basis points more than the earnings yield on U.S. equities vs. an average of just 20 bps over the last three years. On the other hand, maybe these markets are just returning to a more normal relationship - from 2005-2008, high-yield debt yielded an average of 370 bps more than equities.
    • High-yield is lower again today as oil crashes below the $60 per barrel level, with HYG and JNK both down 0.7%.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 9 Comments
  • Oct. 17, 2014, 11:42 AM
    • Kotok's Cumberland Advisors was in there buying on Wednesday with the Dow down 400 points, as the underlying components of tracked ETFs reaching extremes - nearly every stock was "oversold by enough standard deviations as to call for action."
    • "We are moving from worrisome cash reserve maintenance with anticipation of high volatility to a new place that will lead us into a new leg of a bull market. The time to rebalance and position is when doing so requires courage and when things look ugly."
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 14, 2014, 3:37 PM
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 14, 2014, 2:52 PM
    • Just 32% of fund managers expect the global economy to strengthen over the next twelve months, according to the latest BAML Fund Manager Survey. It's the weakest showing in two years. Alongside, corporate earnings expectations are the poorest in 18 months.
    • As a result, money managers have slashed overweight equity allocations to a two-year low of 34%, cut emerging market exposure for the first time in five years, boosted fixed-income holdings, gotten more underweight commodities, and raised cash levels to 4.9%.
    • “Cash balances are high, but investors are retreating to benchmark positions rather than staging an exodus from markets,” says BAML's top market honcho Michael Hartnett.
    • With interest rates scraping zero across the developed world, just 18% of those surveyed believe monetary policy is too stimulative. Yikes!
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, AOA, PERM, GTAA, FEX, CPI, AOK, JKD, AOM, AOR, RLY, EEH, EPRO, EQL, DBIZ, GAL, MATH, IWL, TZY, TZW, TGR, RRF, TDN, FWDD, TZV, GIVE, ERW, TZI, TZE, TDV, TZD, TZL, TDD, SYE, TZG, TZO, TDH, TDX
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 13, 2014, 10:30 AM
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 1, 2014, 12:04 PM
    • Add David Tepper to the list of hedge funders getting fried thanks to owning a piece of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Appearing on Bloomberg, Tepper says he wished he didn't own any stock in the two, but also says it's a small position.
    • Previously: Fannie and Freddie plunge after investor lawsuit dismissed
    • As for the broader market, he finds U.S. stocks interesting at these levels, but the next big move is dependent on whether or not Mario Draghi launches QE in Europe.
    • "Nothing," says Tepper, when asked about the market implications of Bill Gross' exit from Pimco.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EEH, EQL, IWL, FWDD, ERW, SYE
    | Comment!
  • Sep. 23, 2014, 3:15 PM
    • U.S. companies purchased $116.2B worth of stock in Q2, down 1.6% from a year ago, and 27% less than in Q1, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Q1 results, though, were skewed by Apple's well-timed $18B in purchases; in Q2, the company repurchased just $5B of its stock.
    • The thinking among many is buybacks have been a significant tailwind to the market, so the slowdown could then mean trouble, or at a minimum that corporations are holding a buyers strike in the face of high prices (that would be a first).
    • Buyback ETFs: PKW, SYLD
    • Broad large-cap ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, EEH, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 3 Comments
  • Sep. 22, 2014, 12:13 PM
    • The ratio of those insiders buying stock to those selling this year has fallen to about the lowest since 2000, according to Bloomberg. This comes as the companies they manage repurchased $275B of stock in H1 - the 2nd heaviest level since the data began being tracked in 1998.
    • “Insiders are reacting to stocks, in general, at all-time highs,” says one wealth manager. “Share repurchases represent other people’s money, which is much easier to spend. Corporate cash is exploding.”
    • The last time corporate insiders turned decidedly bearish was October 2010, with about seven sellers for every two buyers. The ratio of sellers to buyers stayed this higher for five straight months, the longest stretch in a decade. The S&P 500 peaked in April 2011 and tumbled 19% over the ensuing six months.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, EEH, IWL, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 6 Comments
  • Sep. 4, 2014, 3:39 PM
    • "Choice of shorts and market timing are the clear sources of blame," says Goldman's David Kostin of news mutual funds are on pace to match their worst relative performance in a decade, with just 23% of funds beating the S&P 500 YTD. The news is especially surprising given that correlations have sunk to pre-crisis levels - theoretically this should make it easier for stock pickers to separate winners from losers.
    • The lousy performance could mean good things for the market for the rest of the year though. Facing the prospect of needing to pen mea culpas in year-end letters, managers could feel compelled to chase performance in order to paint a prettier picture by the end of 2014. A check of the scorecard finds 9 years since 1991 when fewer than 40% of funds beat the averages. In those years, the S&P 500 rallied by 2% more in Q4 than it did in years when funds were outperforming the market.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, IWL, EEH, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 2 Comments
  • Aug. 12, 2014, 12:57 PM
    • "At these high levels, it suggests that all kinds of risks are priced in over the near-term," says BAML's Manish Kabra, after the bank's fund manager survey for August showed a sharp rise in cash holdings to 5.1% - the highest level since June 2012. "We expect risk assets to rally in August and move towards recent highs. But absent capitulation on the growth outlook, it is not time to close your eyes and buy - it's not necessarily a long-term trade."
    • Alongside the rise in cash, the number of respondents buying protection against a crashing stock market has risen to its highest level since October 2008, with 86% citing geopolitical issues as the biggest risk, up from 53% in June. It's the third-highest reading in ten years, says Kabra.
    • ETFs: VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, IWL, EEH, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 5, 2014, 9:16 AM
    • "We forecast a dramatic divergence between stock and bond returns during the next several years,” says David Kostin's team at Goldman, predicting an annualized 6% return for the S&P 500 between now and 2018 vs. a 1% annualized gain for 10-year Treasurys.
    • Alongside that prediction is Kostin's expectation for the Fed Funds rate to reach 4% by 2018.
    • Stocks typically perform well in the months leading to the first rate hike, meaning the next year (up to the point when most expect the Fed to move) should be a good one, says Kostin.
    • ETFs: PLW, GOVT, TAPR, VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, IWL, EEH, ERW, FWDD, SYE
    | 2 Comments
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IWL Description
The iShares Russell Top 200 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Russell Top 200® Index.
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Country: United States
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