IWM Forum Topics
- All Comments on IWM
- General Discussion on IWM
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08 [view article]
- Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune? [view article]
- For ETFs, First Half of 2008 Was All About Commodities [view article]
- Emphasize Capital Preservation in these Mean Markets [view article]
- Weekly Market Review: Stagflation Story Remains Intact [view article]
- Hedge Funds Moving Into a New Marketplace [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
- Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
- Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
- Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
- Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
- Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
loading ...Recent IWM Articles
- Thursday Outlook: Overbought!
- Wednesday Outlook: No Rhyme or Reason
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08
- Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune?
- Friday Outlook: Bear's Wild Ride
- Sitting Out Asset Classes: Boring Is Not Always Bad
- For ETFs, First Half of 2008 Was All About Commodities
- Thursday Outlook: The Good and the Bad
- Wednesday Outlook: Bunning Throws Heat
- Tuesday Outlook: Going Out of Business Sale
- Full List of Articles »
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
would you please add silver to your charts. thank you! ReplyChoosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
I have read most of your articles, they have answered all of my questions but these:How about leverage, or lack of leverage - cash. If we have a risk free return on the Y axis, we can reduce risk in an efficient way by combining cash and something close to a P75 portfolio in a linear fashion; on a line from the risk free return on the y axis tangent to the efficient frontier. Like wise the line would extend to the right, above the frontier, allowing higher returns with less risk by using leverage. So shouldn't we be concerned with finding the portfolio that provides the steepest line (Sharpe ratio?) and then adjusting our risk/return with leverage or cash? Of course its not that simple, our loan rate would not be the risk free rate and leverage might not be good for a long range strategy, but how about options or levered ETFs? Also if the left side of the efficient frontier was high enough we could combine a risky portfolio with cash, no need for leverage. We also have the problem of what to use for cash, a MM or maybe short bonds, if they are held to maturity and not marked to market.
You optimize the asset mix by hand, using experience. How about using Monte Carlo to do the optimization, try many random combinations (0%-100%) and pick among the winners? Might take a while, but my computer is not used while I sleep!
Reply
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Excellent presentation. Unfortunately, the author is too shy in giving us his view and strategy. How is a novice to interpret the action? ReplyWednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Let's see here, if the consumer is 70% of the economy and cars aren't selling, or houses, or other big consumer items, stocks are prepped for a multi year rally???I don't think so! Reply
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
A couple weeks ago the Royal Bank of Scotland warned about a potential plunge in the markets, but that a rally could occur in early July first. Might this be it? ReplyWednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
This rally was a good chance to add to shorts, which is what I did. Good luck in getting a sustained performance in this market, unless oil drops below 130 and keeps on dropping.... ReplyWednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
When you hear that kind of argumentation, you understand why the market is so inefficient.... Don t dream Gabe... Staglation fear is spreading... look at the different CPIs, PPIs in all the different economies. High oil prices doesn t come from speculation, you ve got structural issues now, supply issues more than demand issues. Accordingly, it will weigh on costs.... And the main problem is cost inflation that will accelerate inevitably. It means that central banks will raise rates now. China is not anymore a safe haven as well. Finally, if you look at the earnings growth estimates for this year (excluding financials), you still have 14% growth ! How could you believe it is sustainable?... So the street has to revise down.If you look at technicals, that s not good as well. All the rebounds are weak and driven by short covering, but mutual funds are not ready to buy this market in this context because there is no catalysts... Reply
Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
Excellent--looking forward to following up... ReplyTracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
It would be interesting to combine a mean reversion approach based on valuations by coupling it with asset classes that have historically shown strong positive or negative correlation. I've been trying to come up with an adequate algorithm but it's quite tricky and can leave you exposed to higher risk. There is a website (www.assetcorrelation.c...) that publishes up to date correlation matrices each day for the past few months that I've been tracking and things have been quite out of whack recently. Replym
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Today (July 8, 2008)’s Last Two Hours’ RallyWhat a prudent trader looks for are extreme values before putting in his trades. But the market does not always oblige by steadily heading towards those extreme values, positive or negative.
The readings in SPY and QQQQ were mildly positive as of yesterday, July 7, 2008. It would have been better if there were no rally during the last two hours today, if a stronger, more sustainable rally is to become more likely.
As it is, we now have a premature rally, that began during the last two hours of today’s trading. This also means that the movement will likely be limited before a re-test of the recent low ensues.
Reply
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Gabe, you are crazy. How would an implosion in Europe and emerging markets signal record rally? This market is still going lower, it's a good oppertunity to add to your SDS, DXD ect...Love the charts, this is the best thing on this site. Replyborenstein
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
This is only the beginnig of the unprecedented rally.The recession that most of the experts are referring to ,statistically does not exist(two consecutive quarterly declines in the GDP).Market "Bears " will have to adjust their positions(short)to reflect the true state of economy(deceleration),... a wishfull thinking(recession).
Short covering is only a partial argument for the stock market rally.
The ultimate "engine" responsible for the record equity rally will be the Great Economic European and Emerging market implosion,driven by the high rates and the record leverage in these geographic/economic areas.The flight to quality(dollar) that will follow ,will overwhelm the "shorts" and the experts. Reply
Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
Dear Gentlemen, when I see all this discussion about market, value, correction, bottom, peak, etc I am sad to see the most important word of all - that is "citeras paribus".I was thought that the words mean - "everything else being equal".
I was told that all economic theories are based on "citeras paribus".
That got me to panic and travel all around the world to see any country where economy was run based on that principle.
Well guess what? Every country has hidden and sometimes not so hidden regulations to ensure that the economy is always "growing".
No country, including the USA has a free market.
Because of this manipulation of market, growth sometimes is artificially boosted. Look at the so called "Tiger" economies of South East Asia. These countries were artificially boosting their economy using borrowed money.
USA has done the same for the last decade by issuing Bank Securities as collateral. The scheme went too far including creating non-existing high priced housing market to attract foreign money into USA.
All this borrowing and artificially increased house value boosted the consumer economy.
Now the time is for all this to collapse as it has happened before in all other countries.
The bottom is yet to come. Because everyone who can afford is still holding on to their positions. The only way American Stock market can improve is to allow foreign takeover of American corporations.
But the US Government will not allow it.
This is exactly what happened in Korea with its Chaebols and Indonesian Conglomerates who refused to give up their ill gotten assets. Korea managed to destroy the power of Chaebols and recover its country. Indonesian could not.
Which model will play out in USA is yet to be seen. Till then don;t bet my friends. Reply
Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
lksseven must be drinking a lot of that "Koolaid" if he believes what he just posted.Unfortunately the Democrats do not have a veto-proof majority. If they did we would not have had Senate Republicans halt a $32 billion package of tax breaks for renewable energy that would have been financed mostly by new taxes on big oil, on June 21, 2007. President Bush threatened to veto the final legislation because, he argued, it discouraged domestic oil and gas production, and increases the tax burden on the oil industry
Opening up ANWAR and the OCS is literally a drop in the bucket; not even a good stopgap measure. "Opening up offshore areas to oil exploration...might cut the price of gas by 3 to 4 cents a gallon at most, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council."
www.time.com/time/busi...
The right wing of the Republican party is only starting to talk the renewable talk because it is good politics. They don't have a history of walking the renewable walk.
The only way we'll stop sending $700 Billion of America's net worth EVERY YEAR to the oil exporters is to change the politics in Washington. Based on track record Republicans are for more of the same, which is hurting our economy.
Reply
Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
I do not agree that oil is rising due to speculation. There is certainly the law or supply and demand in effect; Anyone who can't see this must be blind. Also, there are so many trillions of USD sitting in far away places, earning nothing and seeing their buying power go down moment by moment. Is it not wiser to buy something you can use, whether it be iron, manganese, oil, wood, cement, anything is better than the USD Reply