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- Weekly Market Review: Stagflation Story Remains Intact [view article]
- ETF splits (EEM, IWN, IJR, EFA, IGE, IJK, IJH, IJJ, IWM, ICF, IJS, IYR) [view article]
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08 [view article]
- Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune? [view article]
- For ETFs, First Half of 2008 Was All About Commodities [view article]
- Emphasize Capital Preservation in these Mean Markets [view article]
- Hedge Funds Moving Into a New Marketplace [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
- Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
- Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
- Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
- Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
loading ...Recent IWM Articles
- Friday Outlook: Stepping Back
- Thursday Outlook: Overbought!
- Wednesday Outlook: No Rhyme or Reason
- ETF Industry Data Summary: 1H'08
- Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune?
- Friday Outlook: Bear's Wild Ride
- Sitting Out Asset Classes: Boring Is Not Always Bad
- For ETFs, First Half of 2008 Was All About Commodities
- Thursday Outlook: The Good and the Bad
- Wednesday Outlook: Bunning Throws Heat
- Full List of Articles »
Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
Everyone should read the link posted by jjason. In addition to the obvious conclusions it provides about the ICE problem, there is an additional troubling aspect. The Fed is now in a position to fund oil speculation and drive oil prices higher.A major unregulated market for oil futures is ICE and ICE is backed by several oil companies and investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. With the new Fed policy orchestrated in the Bear Stearns rescue, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs can borrow from the Fed window. Whether they do this or not to fund oil speculation is immaterial, because they have the window available to back up futures bets when needed. Thus, they can risk more in this arena because they have the Fed back-up available if ever needed. Conclusion: oil futures prices are being driven higher by the "full faith and credit of the U.S. government".
If there is any consolation, even the "full faith and credit of the U.S. government" is unlikely to support a bubble forever. Thus, there will be a sharp reversal in oil prices at some point. The perpertrators (the backers of ICE and other unregulated "dark" markets) will be able to control their losses. Pension funds, mutual funds, endowments and individual investors may not. And, in the case of investment banks, the losses, if any, can be mitigated at the Fed window.
Seldom have so many suffered at the hands of so few! And the suffers are, through the Fed, providing financial support to their tormentors. Reply
speculator
Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
All markets are down but, when some start to come back, there will be winners and losers. US will be a loser, China will be a winner. ReplyMid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
Very nice wrap-up Phil. I also share your concerns and guarded optimism. ReplyGlobal Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
it's all ball-bearings these days ReplyGlobal Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
This is a good article reflecting the "nowhere to hide principle" in global markets. While I realize this is not a forum, has anyone published a comparison of projected inflation/recession in Europe, Japan, Singapore, Brazil, China? Also, which sectors would be doing better in Europe, Brazil? ReplyMid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
I agree with Phil. Please contact your US Congressmen and Senators to do something to solve this problem. Copy:www.star-telegram.com/...
and send it to everyone you know. Reply
Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
Fight big oil: get out of your car and use a bicycle, a public bus or train! Geez, you act like you're a slave to oil and you're not unless you're just brainwashed that you are! ReplyGlobal Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
Thank you for an insightful article. The chart of a status from around the world is an excellent broad view.This is a good time for strategic rebalancing. For those who have wanted to enter China and India it is a good time to start dollar cost averaging into it.
I have wanted some exposure to these countries but emerging is synonomous with volitile. I always prefer to enter new markets during a period of calamity when I can clearly see some level of darkness priced into the market.
It is time to purchase into these two markets with 33% of my target long term exposure. That said China could drop another 50% for all anyone knows. Emerging is synonymous with the statement "we really dont know how to value this opportunity"
Finally isnt it nice to see that for US citizens that for all the US problems, most of the rest of the world has been hit harder so far. Reply
Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
Nice clear article which I happen to agree with. The bottom-callers (where is Dick Bove when we need him?) have been talking about the gloomy mood on the Street for months. In fact, the mood only recently shifted to genuine gloom. Until a few weeks ago, the bulk of investors believed that every drop was a buying opportnity. They believed this because that is what they were taught to believe by the Fed and its ever-inflationary policy. When the Fed always has your back, being a stock market genius is easy.It has taken a serious drubbing to wake these geniuses from their intellectual slumber. The trend is down, and it is firmly established. "Nowhere to Hide" is an excellent summary of the situation in traditional stocks.
Me? I'm hiding in AUY, GRS, HL, SDS, EEV, ....
Reply
Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible? [view article]
If one is going to speculate in energy then why not anticipate an energy revolution? One that goes in the right direction to begin with... ReplyChoosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
Thanks, now if seeking alpha would just add a preview feature to this comment system I could see and the correct spelling errors!! ReplyConsidine
Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
Jonathan:As I say in the article--three years of trailing data is what I use. As far as getting rid of an under-performing sector, that will require study beyond QPP. The Financial sector is a great example. I have been very light on financials since well before the meltdown. I own some BAC, though, and it has gotten pounded. I am neither selling nor buying more. I invest for the long term and that is really what QPP is designed to help with. Over periods of less than a year, momentum tends to dominate--as I have discussed in some articles.
Personally, I do my homework up front and then I tend to get in for the long haul. I do not try to time my major investments in terms of selling out when they are down. When I am adding money, I will use data such as these to help provide ideas for sectors to look at.
The difference between under-valued and distressed is also apparent if you look at projected risk levels...
Geoff Reply
Russell 3000 Sheds Nearly $2 Trillion in Cap Value [view article]
You probably would have to go back to 1928 Fatcat to see that level of deniability. ReplyRussell 3000 Sheds Nearly $2 Trillion in Cap Value [view article]
right on Mike,Ive never seen such denial in my 57yrs... ReplyRussell 3000 Sheds Nearly $2 Trillion in Cap Value [view article]
"It was Sept. 10 last year when the Fed actually cut interest rates as a response to the credit crunch. Even in late August, everyone was debating the extent of what was going on..." said Stephen Wood, Russell's senior portfolio strategist.This is precisely why the Russell is in shambles. Those who did not see the full extent of what was going on by August were lost. Unfortunately, the follow-the-leader mentality so widespread on Wall Street led to 99.99% of the "experts" missing everything.
Reply