iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)

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  • commenter
    User 143167
    Jul 02 11:45 AM
    My Website
    Q2 Economic Commentary: Buyers on Strike [view article]
    Oil prices would not go down if the US economy can avoid a recession. Increased supplies? How can that happen? Seriously I believe OPEC will cut its production if oil price falls below $120.
    This economy NEEDS a severe recession to bring an end to this commodity boom. That is how stagflation ends up with every time.     Reply
  • commenter
    billb
    Jul 02 07:40 AM
    My Website
    Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
    Interesting. Have you tried the inverse? In other words, take the best performing asset classes for a given month, waited a month and gone long? What tools did you use to test this theory? Reply
  • commenter
    ICouldBeWron
    g
    Jul 01 11:30 PM
    Going New-School About Indexing [view article]
    I also have been enjoying this column and could become a regular reader.

    In the long run (40 years). I'm an optimist on the economy. I agree with Warren Buffet that index funds make sense for most people. I think we will solve our energy problems (via Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactors, sorry to use the f word), and the USA could even led colonization of the galaxy this century.

    In the more immediate future (2-5 years) I'm very pessimistic. Both the credit crisis and energy crisis are real problems that aren't going to dissapear overnight. So I'm mainly in cash (AUD as that's were I happen to reside. I actually expect the AUD to fall in the short term, but at least interest rates are 7%ish, which is ok, and going up. And Japanese Yen JPY, for a carry trade play, as Jim Rogers says 'everyone should own some yen').

    Being in cash I need an inflation hedge. So I'm also buying some commodities, even oil. Yeah oil is going to crash I agree, the question is will it go to 150ish and crash back down to 100ish, or will it go to 200ish and crash back down to 130ish. I'm beginning to think we are going to 200. (So really correct rather than crash)

    I'm also still short the S&P500 and selected stocks. That's about it.

    Please allow me to give a few links regarding the Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactor. If you are feeling down about energy prices this stuff could really cheer you up.
    video.google.com/video...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    Reply
  • commenter
    blah-blah
    Jul 01 11:53 AM
    Dancing with the Bear Market [view article]
    Trying catch the bottom or the right side of the V(or U) is a fools game. No one blows a horn and signals that it's all clear.It'll be scary till it's well into the next bull run and that's when the dumb money finally jumps on board.

    For anyone with a time horizon longer than a few years, they should be buying a set of high quality companies at each downleg but always leaving some cash for another leg down.

    Then hold them for years collecting the dividends and reaping the rewards. For the next 6 months - year it's going to suck, get over it. Just because you bought something good and it's cheaper a month from now does not mean it wasn't cheap then.

    In this market I would probably set 10000 in the Dow as the last place to deploy cash and if it falls a little futher then so be it.     Reply
  • commenter
    fredlu33
    Jul 01 11:51 AM
    Going New-School About Indexing [view article]
    Try a read,Unconventional Success by David F. Swensen. I found it very much on point. Reply
  • commenter
    dougnhi
    Jul 01 10:16 AM
    Dancing with the Bear Market [view article]
    This article is synonomous with "buy the dip" mentality. During bear markets, buy the dip mentality will fail, and lots of folks will go bust. The wisest folks will stay on the sidelines until the selling is clearly over and a new trend arises. For the truely adventurous, shorting the market could prove profitable. The question at this stage shouldn't be "when to buy", but rather when to stop shorting. It's much too early for the "when to buy" question. The credit crunch has much farther to go. As the old saying goes....if folks are asking if it's over, it's not nearly over. When folks give up on it entirely and are in despair, it's time to be backing up the truck. We have steep grades ahead..... buyers beware! Reply
  • commenter
    syndicat
    Jul 01 07:38 AM
    Dancing with the Bear Market [view article]
    There are 3 possible causes of major bear markets: excessive valuation, excessive leverage and oil. Each of the prior major bear markets
    (1929-1933, 1973-1974, 2000-2003) featured 2 of the 3 causes.

    This is the first bear to feature excessive leverage and oil together.
    Otherwise, nothing is new.

    Each of the previous bear markets provided an opportunity to buy stocks and build wealth.

    The real question is when to buy.     Reply
  • commenter
    theinvesting
    speculator
    Jul 01 07:33 AM
    My Website
    Dancing with the Bear Market [view article]
    S&p futures are down 13 points this morning. I don't think the S&p 500 will see 1400 again this year. Over the weekend Peter Schiff spoke to Barron's. He thinks the U.S is in trouble. I will tell you why @ theinvestingspeculator... Reply
  • commenter
    oduis
    Jul 01 02:04 AM
    Going New-School About Indexing [view article]
    It reminds me of discussions around 2000.
    When the markets were doing great back then, everybody wanted to convince you to by index funds. If everything goes up anyway, the performance fee is considerable.
    After the big crash, that some big old school asset allocator funds dampened a lot, they came back in fashion.
    Same thing 8 years later...
    The efficient market theory, the basis for indexing, has long been falsified.
    So my recommendation is: mix some global asset allocator funds. Even if not one single one beats the markt all the time, the mixture will do it. And let you sleep better, since they take out the big backdraws.
    Reply
  • commenter
    PrudentMan
    Jun 30 11:39 AM
    Going New-School About Indexing [view article]
    Why not just "drill" into the index and pick out the best stocks, get the full benefit or their performance without the baggage of the losers? Takes a bit of work but it is worth it and you can get all the info you need free or for pennies a day.

    The current investment services model used by the major institutions, you know those firms who don't know the value of their own assets let alone others, is dead. No one needs them unless they are too lazy or dumb to choose their own investments. They should be in TIPS, the only true prudent investment and enjoy life with a good nights sleep. The stock market is and never was for the average person, including institutions. Remember the Prudent Man Rule? It is buying a lot of toys for security plaintiffs attorneys.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Jun 30 11:25 AM
    My Website
    Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
    FrankM:

    Yes, QPP does account fully for correlation. This is absolutely crucial. If you read some of my other articles, you will see that I discuss this at length.

    Geoff

    Geoff     Reply
  • commenter
    Jonathan
    Sheinkop
    Jun 29 02:17 PM
    Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
    Geoff,
    Thank you for your uniquely academic approach. Can you be more specific in the length of the trailing time frames you use? As well, how often you look to make a change to a long term portfolio if a sector has just become a lead anchor? As you mention there is a difference between undervalued and distressed so when are you making your decision and acting upon it?

    Thanks,

    Jonathan     Reply
  • commenter
    mavericks
    Jun 28 03:03 PM
    June ETF Short Interest Surges [view article]
    According to ETFconnect.com, there are 476,300,000 shares of the SPY. If there are 197,400,000 shares short then that represents 41.4% of the outstanding shares. That is a huge percentage though the question is how that compares historically. Reply
  • commenter
    FrankM
    Jun 28 01:59 PM
    Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
    Thanks for the reply.
    While thinking over the pros and cons of monte carlo simulation this occured to me: In the types of portfolios being discussed, even though there might be a low corrolation between components, there is still some corrolation, somtimes over 50%. That means that independant random draws cannot be used for each component but that that each draw needs to be adjusted to refect the corrolations. Does QPP do this, and does the order of the draws matter? (The first can be used, but susequent draws for each component must be adjusted according to the required corrolations, as each component is assigned a value the problem becomes more complex because each component has corrolations to all others)
    I find this tool (QPP) quit interesting and the results you present amazing, too bad I just found it, I could have used something like this about 30 yrs ago!     Reply
  • commenter
    User 152589
    Jun 27 07:16 PM
    How to Play the Dollar's Fall With ETFs [view article]
    EDT

    Your article was intereting but gave not specific etfs tied directly
    to the US dollar particualarly for shorting. Did I miss something?

    Erick Tippett
    erick.tippett1@rcn.com     Reply

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