Nov. 1, 2013, 12:03 PM
- Investors poured another $12.4B into global equity funds in the week ended Wednesday, with BAML's Michael Hartnett saying another $8B-$9B of inflows over the next two weeks would trigger a contrarian sell signal in his firm's flow-based model.
- This would coincide with BAML's Bull & Bear Index, which is getting a little to bullish for comfort. Fund manager cash levels were at 4.4% in October. A dip below 4% in November, says Hartnett, would trigger a bright red Sell alert.
- Stock index ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, UWM, SPLV, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, MIDU, VV, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, IWB, ITOT, ONEQ, PDP, UMDD, IWR, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QQQE, QUAL, DIM, IVOO, JKD, SBB, VONE, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FNX, EQL, JKJ, FVI, SDD, EUSA, ROLA, PZI, FDM, SFLA, TRND, RTLA, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, TRNM, ONEK, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, VTHR, EWRS, TWOK, FSE, FSU, PXLC, EWRI, PWO, TOTS, SMLV, BXDB, EWRM, LGLV, UWC, TNDQ, FNDB, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, PXSC, SIZE, PXMC, PIQ, TWQ
Oct. 31, 2013, 7:08 AM
- Still coming to grips with the slightest hawkish twist to the FOMC statement yesterday afternoon, S&P 500 (SPY) futures are down 0.25% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is off 0.45%. Facebook soared after a big earnings beat last night, then actually turned red during the earnings call, but is now higher by 3% in the premarket.
- Europe opened to the downside, but is now mostly higher, and Asia was solidly lower overnight.
- Treasury yields have regained some of their composure, the 10-year yield falling 3 basis points to 2.51%, after shooting higher yesterday afternoon post-statement. Gold's off 1% to $1,.335 per ounce.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, SH, DIA, IWM, VTI, TZA, TNA, SSO, SDS, PSQ, IWC, IVV, SPXU, SPLV, UWM, UPRO, VOO, QID, MDY, VB, SPXS, PRF, SPXL, DOG, TQQQ, IJR, RSP, DXD, SQQQ, SLY, QLD, PRFZ, MVV, RWJ, RWL, IJH, EPS, VO, SCHB, TWM, URTY, SCHA, SDOW, UDOW, VXF, USMV, DDM, EZM, VV, MIDU, RWM, RWK, IWV, SRTY, SCHX, ITOT, IWB, ONEQ, PDP, IWR, UMDD, OEF, SPHB, IYY, MGC, NY, SAA, SCHM, BXUB, DWAS, QQEW, VTWO, XLG, NYC, MIDZ, MZZ, QUAL, QQQE, DIM, IVOO, JKD, VONE, SBB, EXT, RSCO, CZA, FVI, FNX, JKJ, EQL, EUSA, PZI, SDD, FDM, ROLA, SFLA, RTLA, TRND, XMLV, THRK, XSLV, JKG, BXUC, SMDD, WMCR, MYY, FYX, QQXT, VIOO, EEH, TRNM, ONEK, SPXH, TRSK, IWL, EWRS, VTHR, TWOK, FSE, PXLC, EWRI, FSU, SMLV, BXDB, PWO, TOTS, EWRM, LGLV, TNDQ, UWC, FWDD, ALTL, FMK, FNDB, PXSC, PXMC, SIZE, PIQ, TWQ.
Oct. 30, 2013, 2:31 PM
- Check that. Far from little-changed, traders use some real or imagined hint from the Fed statement to take a break from buying low and selling high, with the S&P 500 (SPY -0.7%) diving nearly 1% in a matter of minutes.
- Perhaps at work here - and we're grasping at straws - is the removal from the statement of a line expressing concern about tightening financial conditions.
- The Dow (DIA -0.6%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.4%), and Russell 2000 (IWM -1.5%).
- Index ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG, QQQ, QQEW, TQQQ, QID, SQQQ, PSQ, QLD, QQQE, IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
Oct. 30, 2013, 12:17 PM
- Leading indicator? Trailing? Coincident? The Russell 2000 (IWM -1%) has begun to diverge from the S&P 500 (SPY -0.2%) over the past couple of sessions, and not in a good way.
- The index of small caps has led the way in the big stock rally over the past year, outperforming the big cap gauge by more than 1000 basis points. Its most recent strong relative move has come since mid-September when the Fed backed away from the expected taper.
- Russell 2000 ETFs: IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
Oct. 17, 2013, 4:28 PM
- "We start to get a little queasy when we hit 19x," says BAML's Steven DeSanctis, unable to find bargains in any sector of the small cap universe.
- The Russell 2000 is up 29% this year, and 5.4% over the three months, easily cruising past the S&P 500's 21% and 2.7% gains, but the small cap's P/E ratio has risen to just over 18 vs. a long-term average of 14.9.
- The lofty valuation has BAML recommending clients swap out of U.S. growth for global growth as small caps generally have less exposure to international action.
- Small cap ETFs: IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK, IWO, VTWG, UKK, SKK, IWN, VTWV, UVT, SJH.
Oct. 8, 2013, 2:51 PM| 22 Comments
Sep. 29, 2013, 8:28 PM
- S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.8% on mounting concerns of a partial U.S. government shutdown after the House voted to tie federal government funding to a halt on key provisions of Obamacare. Adding to worries is what may be the imminent collapse of the Italian government.
- DJIA (DIA) futures -0.7%, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.6%, Russell 2000 (IWM) -0.9%. Italian FTSE MIB futures (EWI) -1.2%.
- Japan's Nikkei is off 2% in the early going and Australia's ASX 200 is down 1%.
- Gold's little-changed and WTI crude oil is down 1.1% to $101.72.
- U.S. stock index ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG, QQQ, QQEW, TQQQ, QID, SQQQ, PSQ, QLD, QQQE, IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
- Japan ETFs: EWJ, NKY, EWV, EZJ, ITF, JSC, JPP, DXJ, SCJ, DFJ, FJP, JPNL, JPNS, DXJS, JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD.
- Australia: EWA, EWAS, KROO, AUSE, FAUS, AUD, AUNZ, FXA, GDAY, CROC.
Sep. 16, 2013, 9:51 AM
- Bearish pundits have their tails in the air thanks to Time's latest cover which features a bull with a party hat and shades on under the headline, "How Wall Street Won."
- The so-called "magazine cover indicator" has been a favorite of contrarians since print was invented, with Business Week's 1979 "Death of Equities" cover the granddaddy of all bell-ringers.
- Paul Macrae Montgomery is the best collector and recorder around for these incidents, and he says there's an 80% chance the market will top in a month and be lower a year from now. Don't be swayed by the equivocal nature of the article - which says another crash remains possible - it's the graphic image that's of most importance. He reminds Time signalled the epochal March 2009 bottom with its March 10 "Holding On For Dear Life" cover.
- Index ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, QQQ, QQEW, TQQQ, QID, SQQQ, PSQ, QLD, QQQE, DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG, IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
Sep. 15, 2013, 8:37 PM
- S&P 500 (SPY) futures +1.1% following Larry Summers pulling out of the race to be Fed chief. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and DJIA (DIA) +1%.
- 10-year Treasury futures are up nearly a full point, translating into about a 10 basis point dip in the 10-year Treasury yield, which closed Friday at 2.88%.
- Eurodollar futures are partying, the December 2016 contract up a full 17 basis points - in other words, nearly one 25 basis point Fed rate hike has been erased on the Summers news. Still, at 97.33, the Dec. 2016 contract is pricing in nearly 250 bps in hikes between now and then. The Eurodollar market has always been a great repository of market angst, and to say the taper and Summers were making players nervous would be putting it mildly.
- The greenback is lower across the board, down about half a percent vs. the euro (FXE), pound (FXB), yen (FXY), swissie (FXF), and loonie (FXC), and off a full percent vs. the aussie (FXA).
- Precious metals are on the move as well, gold +1.7% to $1,330 per ounce, and silver +2.5% to $22.25.
- Stock index ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB, DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG, IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
- Long-dated Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UUPT, UDN, UDNT.
- Short-duration Treasury ETFs: SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ.
- Related currency ETFs: ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX, GBB, YCL, YCS, JYN.
- Precious metals ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, PHYS, AGOL, DGL, UBG, DGP, UGL, DZZ, GLL, DGZ, UGLD, DGLD, GLDI, SLV, SIVR, AGQ, DBS, USV, ZSL, USLV, DSLV, SLVO.
Aug. 23, 2013, 2:34 PM
- "The small cap valuation story has also deteriorated a bit," writes Credit Suisse's Calvasina and Mahaffy, noting the relative ratio between small caps and mid caps has gotten back in line with the long-term average.
- A bigger issue though, is absolute valuations - small and mid cap stocks have become overvalued relative to large caps which themselves are overvalued.
- Bottom line: The entire equity market has a valuation problem and the valuation of small and mid caps is little better or worse.
- Small cap ETFs: IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
- Mid-cap ETFs: SCHM, RWK, FNX, MDY, IJH, VO, VXF, JKG, IWR.
Aug. 21, 2013, 8:03 AM
- Yesterday was the first session in more than three years which saw the Dow (DIA) decline while the Russell 2000 (IWM) rose more than 1.5%, according to Bespoke.
- Bullish or bearish? Small cap outperformance is commonly thought to signal the sort risk-appetite necessary for a bull market. The Russell 2000 has outperformed the Dow by nearly 1000 basis points over the last year with all of the gain coming since the bull move took off in mid-November.
- Small caps really started to widen their lead from late June - perhaps signaling the sort of over-exuberance necessary to set at least a temporary market top.
- Small cap ETFs: IWM, VTWO, EWRS, SRTY, TWM, RWM, TNA, URTY, UWM, TZA, SMLV, TWOK.
- Dow ETFs: DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOG.
Jul. 9, 2013, 3:11 PMState Street (STT) is competing aggressively on price with the launch of its Russell 2000 ETF (TWOK) - the fund will have an expense ratio of 0.12% vs. iShares' (BLK) IWM with expenses of 0.24%, and Vanguard's VTWO at 0.21%. In addition, SSgA is relaunching 3 existing ETFs after refitting them to Russell indexes. The SPDR Russell 3000 ETF (THRK) replaces the SPDR Dow Jones Total Market ETF (TMW), with expense ratio halved to 0.10%. The SPDR Russell 1000 ETF (ONEK) replaces the SPDR Dow Jones Large Cap ETF (ELR), with expense ratio halved to 0.10%. The SPDR Russell Small Cap Completeness ETF (RSCO) replaces the SPDR Dow Jones Mid Cap ETF (EMM) with expense ratio falling to 0.10% from 0.25%. | Comment!
Jul. 8, 2013, 3:54 PMState Street (STT) looks to take on iShares' (BLK) dominant small cap ETF (IWM) with the Tuesday launch of the SPDR Russell 2000 ETF (TWOK). IWM currently has $23.3B in AUM and an expense ratio of 0.24%. This compares to other far smaller competitors like Schwab's SCHA at 0.08% and Vanguard's VB at 0.10%. Previous: Small cap stocks outpace the S&P 500. Other reasonably popular ETFs: IJS, IJR.
| 4 Comments
Jul. 8, 2013, 9:44 AMIf small caps truly lead than it's good news for the broader market. The Russell 2000 (IWM) - which crossed over 1,000 for the first time ever on Friday - hit another all-time high in early trade today, +0.3% to 1,009. The index is outperforming the SPY by about 330 bps YTD, after widening its lead in the market bounce over the last 2 weeks. | 2 Comments
Jul. 6, 2013, 10:05 AMBarron's "Sizing Up Small Caps" column has had a hot hand - its picks are up 24.6% over the last year vs. 12.3% for the benchmark (IWM). Grabbing David Englander's eye are companies that hit difficult times but are now undergoing a strategic change. Three selections are up plenty, but still may be in the early innings of their turnaround: Chiquita Brands (CQB), Ruby Tuesday (RT), and Wendy's (WEN). | 1 Comment
Jun. 20, 2013, 5:30 PM
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The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
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