SA News • Aug. 16, 2013
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Thu, Nov. 13, 3:20 PM
- U.S. crude oil prices break below $75/bbl for the first time in more than three years, brushing aside an IEA report showing a surprise 1.735M barrel inventory drawdown as well as remarks by the Saudi oil minister dismissing talk of an oil price war among producers.
- West Texas crude settled today at $74.21/bbl, -3.9% and breaking below an important support level; during the past three years, futures have tested but not broken through that level three times.
- Brent crude recently was trading below $78, -3%.
- Global oil majors are all lower: COP -1.9%, BP -1.4%, CVX -1.4%, XOM -1.1%, TOT -0.9%, RDS.A -0.7%.
- Oil services companies and offshore drillers suffer even sharper drops: SDRL -4.4%, SLB -4.2%, HAL -3.9%, BHI -3.9%, RIG -3.8%, DO -3.5%, NBL -2.9%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, CRUD, IXC, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, IPW, FENY, PXJ, UHN, DWTI, DNO, RYE, FXN, SZO, GNAT, OLO, DDG, FILL, OLEM, TWTI
Tue, Jun. 3, 2:22 PM
- Meeting the world’s energy supply needs by 2035 will require more than $48T of investment, with more than half needed to compensate for declining output at mature oil and gas fields and the rest on finding new supplies to meet rising demand, the IEA says in a new report.
- North American shale output is forecast to tail off from the middle of next decade, restoring the importance of supplies from the Middle East and OPEC.
- Europe could face an energy shortfall if power companies and oil producers fail to invest ~$2.2T through 2035 to replace aging electricity infrastructure and meet regulatory goals to reduce carbon emissions, according to the agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, KOL, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, FRAK, IYE, IEO, IXC, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, FILL, EMEY
Mon, May. 19, 7:17 PM
- Mexico, Iran and other countries that once played hardball with big oil companies are now rolling out the welcome mat, offering generous deals in the hope they will bring capital to stimulate output.
- But it isn't certain the big oil firms will want to return to all those countries, as the economics of the oil business may be changing to favor different kinds of exploration projects elsewhere in the world, WSJ reports.
- The biggest shake-up is coming in Mexico, where production has been falling steadily while rising electricity demand has forced dependency on imported natural gas and sent prices soaring; Total (TOT), Chesapeake (CHK) and Chevron (CVX) have expressed interest in entering the country.
- Iran is considering big changes to its current stringent oil terms, but some analysts say "it will be a slow process to get Western oil companies back to Iran... Iran's reservoirs are prolific, but they are also complex and in poor shape."
- Also, he Ukraine crisis has reinforced the trend in thinking about geopolitical risk as being a big factor.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, FCG, XOP, DIG, GASL, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IXC, IEZ, GASX, PXE, IPW, PXJ, BARL, PXI, PSCE, FENY, RYE, FXN, GNAT, DDG, IOIL, FILL
Mon, May. 12, 4:41 AM
- Saudi Arabia could increase oil production if the tension between Russia and Ukraine causes any market shortages, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said today at an energy conference in Seoul.
- Al-Naimi's comments came after pro-Russia separatists declared victory in a "self-rule" referendum for Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
- Absent of any crude shortages, al-Naimi doesn't expect OPEC to increase its production cap of 30M barrels a day when it meets next month. "Supply is highly sufficient. Demand is great. And the market is fairly stable. There's no reason for a change," al-Naimi said. He also described $100 a barrel as a fair price "for everybody, consumer, producer and oil companies."
- WTI crude is +0.2% at $100.20 a barrel, while Brent is +0.3% at $107.80.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DTO, DBO, BNO, IXC, CRUD, USL, IPW, BARL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, GNAT, OLO, IOIL, OLEM, FILL, TWTI
Oct. 2, 2013, 6:45 PM
- The increase of U.S. energy output in recent years has been widely discussed, but a WSJ analysis of global data shows the U.S. is on track to pass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil and gas this year - if it hasn't already.
- The U.S. last year tapped more natural gas than Russia for the first time since 1982, and it's catching up in pumping crude; Russia produced an average 10.8M bbl/day in H1 2013, 900K/day more than the U.S. but down from a difference of 3M bbl/day a few years ago.
- The amount of crude from the Bakken oil field in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford shale in Texas continues to rise rapidly, while Russian output is expected to remain flat through 2016; that's a big problem for Russia, whose oil exports could fall 25%-30% after 2015, reducing GDP more than $100B. (also)
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL, RSX, ERUS, RBL, RSXJ, RUDR.
Sep. 28, 2013, 8:25 AM
- North America will become "energy independent" by 2020 on the strength of the shale revolution and then become a net energy exporter, consultant Wood Mackenzie says in a new report.
- North America’s energy independence will introduce a new dynamic to coal, oil and gas prices; coal and gas exports will establish a price cap on their respective markets during periods of high demand, and weak oil demand growth will see U.S. tight oil provide a price floor under crude markets.
- The report says energy independence does not imply a North America entirely detached from global markets; the region as a whole will be dependent on others to clear excess production, and the U.S. will need to import oil for the foreseeable future.
- ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG, IXC, IOIL, AXEN, IPW, GNAT, FILL.
Aug. 16, 2013, 1:06 PM
- Screening for income ETPs to 1) Hold up against a rising yield curve 2) Offer dividend income 3) Exhibit low volatility, Ned Davis' Neil Leeson pulls up several MLP funds, a few international stock ETFs, and a private-equity tracker.
- MLPs include YMLI, AMU, MLPY.
- The private-equity find is the PowerShares Global Listed Private Equity Portfolio (PSP).
- The international funds include Canada (EWC), U.K. (EWU), and the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC).
- The quick take is these exchange one set of risks for another, writes Brendan Conway - unlike bonds, each of these funds got crushed (or would have been crushed if it existed) during the financial crisis.
IXC vs. ETF Alternatives
The iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of companies that Standard & Poor's deems part of the energy sector of the economy and important to global markets, as represented by the S&P Global Energy Sector Index. The index is a subset of the Standard & Poor's Global 1200 Index.
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