iShares Dow Jones US Energy (IYE)

All Comments on IYE

  • commenter
    mangolfer
    Aug 21 07:33 AM
    Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
    From another SA article about China consumption

    Where I find flaw in this China-Olympics theory is that the media makes it out to be that there are only two consumers in the world of crude: the U.S and China. Everyone says that this decrease in demand is thanks to the slow down in China to clean up the air before the Olympics. Did everyone forget that the rest of the world, including emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, and India, have NOT slowed down because of the Olympics? To add, China did not close down production countrywide, but only in Beijing and a few other small factory and port cities. Beijing is less than 2% (1.7% by my math in 2007) of China's GDP.

    While the rest of the world (92% of energy consumption) continues to consume at its pre-Olympic pace, oil has fallen $35. Yet, CNBC won't stop talking about the impending hurricane of demand that will come from China. I disagree.

    As I have already said, most of China is still consuming at its pre-Olympic pace too.

    Let's do a little guestimation: China accounts for 8% of world oil consumption (1/3 as much as the U.S). Let's say that Beijing consumption has slowed 50% (it didn't). By limiting traffic, it is estimated that only 1/3 of the 3.3 million vehicles will stay off the road daily. Non-discretionary consumption should stay flat. So, 2% of 8% is 0.16% of world consumption, or approximately 138K barrels a day of consumptions. Going back to our 50% decrease in consumption number, Beijing purposely decreased its Beijing consumption by 69K barrels a day. There goes the ramping up thesis. 40 factories here and there don't significantly raise that number in the context of world supply.

    My point is that China's actions have not significantly, or even marginally, cut demand. However, in the same time frame, Crude Oil has fallen from $148 to $113. To say that the slowdown in China is because of the Olympics is a canard. Furthermore, China has curtailed gasoline demand by raising prices 17% in late June and OPEC has increased supplies.

    The Chinese tried very hard to piece together their country before the world arrived. It is arguable that the super spike we saw in oil was because China tried to complete in months what they should have built in years. Now, I will argue that progress (and consumption) will slow from here. Growth tends to slow post Olympics in host countries.

    Reply
  • commenter
    ChinaMart
    Aug 21 07:07 AM
    My Website
    Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel? [view article]
    Millions of cars in China will be back on the roads and factories around Beijing will return to production after the Olympics are over and the restrictions on air-polluting activities are lifted. China demand will go up again. OPEC is talking about cutting production to keep prices higher. Oil will not see sub $100 again. Ever. Reply
  • commenter
    chrisfrostic
    Aug 18 01:20 PM
    My Website
    The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful [view article]
    Once again:
    We will never run out of oil until the core of the earth is cold and dead.
    Manmade Global warming is not a problem. The earth is covered with oceans which absorb any excess before it has a chance to accumulate.
    Http://frostic.com/co2andglob...     Reply
  • commenter
    Alisha
    Payton
    Aug 16 09:39 PM
    Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio [view article]
    Delta,

    Thanks for the link to the article. I never would have come to the conclusion that the dealings we do here have such a STRONG impact on business abroad. In relation to S&P500, my favorite ETFs for diversification, ADRE and EEM have an r of no less than .6 over the last five years. Thats quite a pitiful performance. However, as a nonactive trader, I still like the idea of global markets ETFs for my portfolio purposes, and Geoff's article and the comments that ensue, are quite helpful and entertaining.


    On Aug 04 05:21 PM Delta David wrote:

    > Emerging Markets = Diversification? www.indexuniverse.com/...
    >
    >
    > Alisha you might want to read that article before adding Emerging
    > Markets for purposes of diversification.     Reply
  • commenter
    jaded risk
    manager
    Aug 12 03:03 AM
    P/E Ratio & Estimated Earnings Growth for S&P Sectors [view article]
    wondering how all sector earnings significantly below the total S&P500 earnings? should the S&P500 earnings be close to the weighted sector earnings? Reply
  • commenter
    The FItzman
    Aug 10 10:14 PM
    My Website
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    mekats: they are recommendations going forward. you seem to believe the energy stocks are down alot more this year than the S&P500 or the DJIA or some other "diversified"... equity play. they aren't. my point is, the fundamentals behind oil and energy haven't changed to be bearish, if anything, i believe they are more bullish now than at the start of the year. COP is down less than the S&P this year, as is vanguard energy. i think it will be helpful if you got something like barrons, the WSJ, or investors daily and looked at the YTD, 5yr, and 10yr returns to compare the investments. Reply
  • commenter
    mekats
    Aug 10 08:36 AM
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    Fitzman - don't recall your May post referencing a 10 yr timeframe. Thought it was a "going forward" recommendation. The 30%-40% losses in the last month will require a lot of that long term horizon in order to recoup. Reply
  • commenter
    jjason
    Aug 10 06:26 AM
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    High oil prices are helping to ruin the economy that we live in. ( I assume most of you are US citizens and live in the US. )

    None of you seem to understand the connection between Cartels, price fixing and high prices. Also, If oil prices were lower, the dollar might be stronger.

    On Friday oil was down to $115.00 a barrel. All energy related stocks took a dive...some as much as 7% in one day. Ups and downs in the markets of 7 to 15% a day is the result of traders who are speculators and this has become a fools game. I do not trade stocks, bonds, real estate or commodities for a living.

    There will be winners and losers because we are playing a zero sum zero game here. This is not good for the overall economy.

    If any of you want some input from another source, look up David Kotok, at Cumberland Advisors, and go to his website and sign up for his email newsletter. I can tell you that David is worried about this economy...very worried.

    In the meantime, I was wondering if any of you read Michael Greenberger's report?     Reply
  • commenter
    andys2i
    Aug 08 02:33 PM
    My Website
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    Great artile and like you I think the respite is temporary. As I discussed recently, Oil prices long term will go back up due to the following factors which relate well to the ones you have listed.

    - The planet remains in a state of energy stress. Asian countries are adding an estimated 50,000 new cars per day to their roads. Adding this growth plus that from other oil based consumables, will provide a huge demand side effect. With supply limited and growing very slowly, this will lead to a steep rise in prices.

    - If China's oil demand growth rate continues at its current pace of 6% to 7% per year, China will use 20 million barrels a day by 2020 - about the same as what the U.S. uses today. And by 2030, China would be up to 40 million barrels per day - twice what America uses now.

    - Tensions between Iran and the U.S. and other Middle east countries don't look like abating in the longer term despite recent diplomatic efforts and a lull in tensions.

    - We'll drive more, fly more and waste more. As prices fall, the alliance of environmentalists and consumers, brought together by pain at the pump, is already coming apart. When has is below $4, people will think of it as a relief and unfortunately most will go back to their old habits.

    - Renewable energy is still a long way from being a viable alternative to oil in terms of widespread usage. The world economy cannot and will not quickly convert from an oil-based consumer to a blend of other energy options such as natural gas, solar, wind and so on
    Reply
  • commenter
    truthinvesti
    ng
    Aug 08 07:18 AM
    My Website
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    Enjoy the spirited debate. My freewebsite is up over double digits on long positions . My feeling is the integrated plays like COP and XOM are pricedattractively at these levels. Oil while in "bubble mode" is not going to see 70 dollars a barrell either more than likely. XOM is my favoritebecause it is a400 billion dollar stock and many soverign wealth funds need toput their money somewhere. Real estate and treasuries are not attractive. Reply
  • commenter
    User 166319
    Aug 07 09:42 PM
    Sector Relative Strength: Energy and Financials [view article]
    Anyone wanting the lower risk Energy play needs to jump on the post IPO play of Energy Services Aquisition, (ESA;nyse) It's a holding company with more cash reserve than the overall price per share currently at $5.60. It recently announced plans to buy two major players in the oil and gas field, a pipeline company and pipeline construction company. After these deals move it will drive the stock forward into earnings which on Valuation will yield approx. $8.50-9.00 target. Company has an unforeseen ceiling with a built in basement thanks to it currently trading less than its total cash reserve. Reply
  • commenter
    bluetea
    Aug 07 12:25 PM
    Crude Reality: Big Oil's Purposely Restricting Supply [view article]
    Alpha/Longoil:

    Whether or not OPEC is greatly overstating their reserve position, I think we all agree the long term focus has to be on reducing our demand for oil.
    Coal displaced wood, oil largely displaced coal, and alternate energy sources must displace oil as quickly as possible.
    Greenspan thinks OPEC could ramp up and the world could produce 115MM barrels a day by 2025 or so. Pickens says 85 MM is the peak.
    They both agree that demand must be destroyed or the ability to produce will fail to meet global consumption at some point.

    That Battery technology that Kleiner backs sounds very promising. I've read about some big companies getting close to solar breakthroughs that will be affordable to the mass of people.

    For now, I do my small part to conserve, drive less and drive more intelligently and see a fairly quick and painless way to further erode US demand if we can get all 240MM or so US cars on board     Reply
  • commenter
    Geoff
    Considine
    Aug 07 11:44 AM
    My Website
    Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio [view article]
    SmartETF:

    It would be far more helpful if you published one or more articles about what you think is the best approach, how it works, back tests, etc. Simply claiming that your model is better and that you have out-performed by some measure over some period of time is not compelling. Also, publishing a portfolio and then revisiting it later and seeing how it has performed--as I did here--is a useful data point. QPP is consistent with the opinions of some of the very best minds in institutional research (Roger Ibbotson, David Swensen, etc.). This does not make it right, of course, but it is meaningful in my opinion. There may be better models in the world, but there are none that I know of that are as well documented both in stress testing and in practice.

    Geoff     Reply
  • commenter
    solboy
    Aug 07 10:12 AM
    Checking In on the All-ETF Portfolio [view article]
    Smart ETF. Could email me about your firm´s services. solboy@hushmail.com Reply
  • commenter
    The FItzman
    Aug 07 09:07 AM
    My Website
    Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors [view article]
    longoil: thanks!

    LazyAl: i'm not sure we have 30 years. the CEO's of COP, RDS, and Hess have all thrown out the date 2015 as the timeframe for when worldwide oil supply won't keep up with demand. that's only 7 years away. if the US economy is in the ditch now, with oil at $120, imagine what will happen when oil and gasoline become scarce and shortages arise? the price of oil will skyrocket, and the economy, currency, stock market, and social fabric of the US will shatter. that is why i am such a proponet of a comprehensive long-term energy policy. history shows that no matter how much wealth a person gathers, if their country, currency, and economy go down the tubes, everyone goes down the tube....

    our only hope:
    thefitzman.blogspot.co...

    Perceptions: no, my argument is a bit more sophisticated than that. worldwide oil supply won't be able to keep up with worldwide demand. therefore, the margin between the two has been shrinking, and therefore the price increased. add to that issue the 50% drop in the US currency, which oil is priced in, due to the insane Bush economic policies and you have another oil kicker. add to that the risk premium due to the oil war and you have another factor. add to that china and india competing for the same oil resources and you have another factor. wasn't all this in the article?

    options: i agree we need more nukes too. financing of nuclear plants is necessary because of the large up-front cost and the long-term pay-off (decades of utility bills). i'd rather see the government finance nuclear plants than start oil wars - at least we'd have something concrete at the end of the day. i also wish they'd help finance the nat gas pipeline from alaska and western canada to the lower 48. the US could have done both for the money (not to mention lives) we've wasted in Iraq, plus, they could have put 50,000,000 hybrids on US highways. all for the cost of Iraq. what a waste huh? i agree GE is a good energy play. nukes, wind, and compressors and handlers for LNG and the oil industry. they are wonderfully positioned in energy. unfortunately, they have had large exposures to the financing and consumer markets, which they are now addressing. once this is out of the way, the stock should start to perform, which it hasnt done for years. wrt nuclear, i'm sure iran would love to have a French or American designed nuclear plant, but of course the sanctions prevent that. so, they go shopping elsewhere. i read the russian plant you speak of was the same exact design as the chernobyl plant :O     Reply
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