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Wednesday, June 19, 10:53 AM "Sell in May and go into cyclicals," says Ralph Acampora after the last month. He reminds of an old adage saying sectors going down the least during a selloff become the new market leaders. During SPY's 5.2% decline from May 22-June 6, the best performers were Tech (XLK) and Industrials (XLI). The worst were Telecommunications (IYZ) and Utilities (XLU). This "rolling rotation" between sectors is necessary, he says, to give further life to the secular bull market begun in March 2009. 3 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 8:49 AM Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. 4 Comments
Monday, May 6, 7:27 AM The S&P 500 (SPY) is fairly valued, says Goldman, but opportunity lies in cyclicals (XLY, XLE, XLI, XLB) which are more undervalued vs. defensives (XLU, XLP, XLV, XTL) than at any time in the last 15 years. "Given the 4 P/E multiple point head start, even a slight valuation normalization should translate into outperformance of cyclicals over defensives during the next 12 months." 1 Comment
Friday, May 3, 8:00 AM "We don't want to sell in May and we continue to prefer cyclicals (XLY, XLI, XLB, XLE) ," says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, fully returned to his normal bullish stance. He notes client positioning is "dramatically different" from the heavily long stance of the last 3 years at this time. More, the downturn in gasoline prices could ad 50 bps to GDP in Q2, and the rally in high-yield suggests the economy is set to get stronger. 1 Comment
Tuesday, January 8, 3:29 PM Vanguard's recent expense reduction means 9 of its 10 sector ETFs are now the cheapest available to U.S. investors. With an annual expense ratio of just 0.14%, VOX, VPU, VCR, VDC, VDE, VHT, VIS, VGT, and VAW stack up favorably vs. the 0.18% charged by State Street's Sector SPDRs (XLU, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLK, XLI, XLB and XTL which charges 0.35%) and the 0.47%-0.48% iShares sector ETFs (RXI, KXI, IYE, IYF, IYZ, IYH, IDU, IYW, IYM, IYJ) charge. At 0.19%, Vanguard Financials (VFH) is still slightly more expensive than the Financial SPDR (XLF). 2 Comments
Monday, November 5, 2012, 7:58 AM Reporting Q3 profit off 85% from a year ago, Liugong Machinery President Zeng Guang'an warns of continued overcapacity in the Chinese construction-equipment sector, saying the country only needs about 10% of the current 200 firms in the business. "We have too much investment. We need more consumption." Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, October 19, 2012, 9:10 AM "Investors need to understand the growing risks of overplaying the defense card," writes AllianceBernstein's Joe Paul, exploring whether high-yield stocks are in bubble territory. It's not news they're expensive compared to past metrics, but high-yielders now make up a record 44% of the S&P 500 (on a cap-weighted basis). "As a countermeasure, (investors) may want to add more cyclical, deeper-value names." 2 Comments
Friday, October 19, 2012, 8:54 AM Technicians get interested in the industrial sector (XLI) as the charts say there's a move coming, "and it's not going to be a boring one." The direction is not yet known, but J.C. Parets is giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. Wait for weekly closes above $38. The XLI -1.3% premarket, as its largest holding, GE, slides following earnings. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, June 21, 2012, 5:02 PM It's time to rotate out of industrial stocks into tech, thinks S&P equity strategist Sam Stovall. While industrial names are likely to be pressured by weak PMI data and other signs of global macro weakness, tech companies are expected to produce above-average 2012 and 2013 EPS growth. Moreover, they sport a PEG ratio of just 0.7, the lowest of 10 S&P industry groups. (large-cap valuations) 1 Comment [Tech, Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 10:21 AM Taking its signal from rising bond yields, HSBC suggests cyclicals will outperform as higher rates are a sign nominal demand is rising. The main casualties: healthcare and consumer staples. As for being a threat to the entire market, HSBC believes this is only true at real yields above 4% (they're negative now), but "a sharp rise in bond yields is a threat from whatever level." Comment! [Quick Ideas, U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, October 11, 2011, 3:08 AM The Financial Stability Oversight Council is due to release today proposals on how it will determine which non-bank financial firms are big enough to be labeled "systemic." It's a tag companies are anxious to avoid, as it will mean increased Fed oversight, as well as new capital and liquidity rules. Comment! [Financials]

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iShares Dow Jones US Industrial ETF