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Monday, May 6, 7:27 AM The S&P 500 (SPY) is fairly valued, says Goldman, but opportunity lies in cyclicals (XLY, XLE, XLI, XLB) which are more undervalued vs. defensives (XLU, XLP, XLV, XTL) than at any time in the last 15 years. "Given the 4 P/E multiple point head start, even a slight valuation normalization should translate into outperformance of cyclicals over defensives during the next 12 months." 1 Comment
Friday, April 26, 8:34 AM The beginning of a bigger move? Two of the year's three strongest performing sectors - healthcare (XLV) and consumer staples (XLP) - are down on the week as the three weakest sectors - energy (XLE), materials (XLB), and tech (XLK) - post gains of 3%-4.5%. 2 Comments
Wednesday, April 24, 9:20 AM "To say that the advance has gotten ahead of fundamentals is an understatement," says iShares' Russ Koesterich, suggesting investors lighten up on red-hot consumer staples (XLP, IYK) holdings. He questions the conventional wisdom saying staples are not immune to consumer spending slowdowns, and further, he argues, how many companies are really pure staples plays? Comment! [Consumer]
Friday, February 15, 2:41 PM The XLP, XRT, and XLY all give up gains and turn lower following Wal-Mart sounding the warning over the effects of the payroll tax hike. It's fascinating that it took markets until just now to react to what was crystal clear 6 weeks ago. 2 Comments [Consumer, On the Move]
Wednesday, January 16, 4:33 PM Tech (XLK) is the new defensive sector, its 14.8 PE ratio continuing to trail traditional cautious plays like telecom (IST), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU). At a lofty 22 PE ratio, telecom leads all S&P sectors - it's a pretty fancy multiple for a slow-growth sector, but investors are attracted by the lofty yield. The S&P (SPY) as a whole has creeped up to a 14.8 ratio. 2 Comments
Monday, January 14, 7:56 AM Li & Fung - the world's largest supplier of clothes and toys to retailers - plunged 15.4% in Hong Kong trade after reporting a 40% drop in operating income thanks to weak U.S. orders. Major customer Wal-Mart -0.5% premarket. Comment! [Global & FX, U.S. Economy, Consumer]
Monday, January 7, 3:48 PM Maybe what's got Wal-Mart (WMT) and Consumer Staples (XLP) so down in the dumps relative to the general market over the last month is the payroll tax hike allowed by the fiscal cliff deal. A FRBNY study finds workers spent 28-43% of 2011's payroll tax cut - that's money now going to D.C. instead of retailers. "We continue to be baffled that politicians on both sides agreed ... this was a good idea," writes Cardiff Garcia. 8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, January 4, 11:25 AM Omega Advisors' Leon Cooperman is no fan of consumer staples stocks as his hedge fund moves to short Procter & Gamble (PG +0.1%), Unilever (UL -0.1%), and Nestle (NSRGY.PK) in the new year. The investor says he isn't convinced by the margins and growth of the group. If he's right on his call, the Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) also looks dicey. 8 Comments [Consumer, Quick Ideas]
Thursday, January 3, 9:32 AM "Stocks soar on news of rapidly shrinking paychecks" is a headline you won't see today, but Nick Colas points out 79% of households make under $100K/year and are subject to the full brunt of the higher payroll tax which kicked in on Jan. 1 - removing 4% of their annual spending power. He sees it as a 50 bp drag on GDP growth in 2013. 15 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, December 28, 2012, 7:37 AM A port strike looms this weekend that could paralyze cargo traffic from Maine to Texas. Nearly all retailers could be affected, but none more than Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) as Christmas comes in spring for the home-improvement industry. The President has the power to force workers back on the job, but the White House is mum at this point. 9 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, December 26, 2012, 7:20 AM Early results suggest a weak holiday season for retailers, with MasterCard's SpendingPulse reporting sales just 0.7% higher than a year ago. "It's a lost season," says the group's Michael McNamera. Not too surprising, major discounting was common in the days leading up to the holiday, and even greater bargains are expected after. 5 Comments [Consumer]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 10:25 AM More on Consumer Sentiment: The 74.5 read wasn't just sharply below the 83 consensus, it was 5 points underneath the lowest estimate out there. It was led by a 13 point plunge in expectations to 64.6. Double-digit declines are very rare, say the report authors, and point to a "sudden pessimism" as the final surge of the holiday shopping season approaches. The XLY, XRT, and XLP can't be bothered, all with moderate gains today. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, November 13, 2012, 10:43 AM Consumer staple bellwether? Procter & Gamble (PG +0.5%) holds its Analyst Meeting this week with a sharp focus on if the company can pull a rabbit out of its hat in Q4. After relying on higher prices to offset dips in volume in key categories, execs tipped product innovation and emerging markets to lead the company out of the 1%-4% growth doldrums. For P&G to pull it off, it will have to buck an overall consumer staples trend that looks sluggish globally. PG watching: The Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP +0.3%) with 13.67% of its assets in the stock, VDC, FXG, IYK, PSL, UGE, SZK. Comment! [Consumer]
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, 12:36 PM With the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) at an all-time high, trader(s) really get bullish with 254K January 38 calls purchased yesterday, tripling the typical open interest on the contract. The 38 strike is about 5% out-of-the-money and cost $0.15. Comment! [Consumer]
Tuesday, October 2, 2012, 7:43 AM A 2.8% decline in the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) relative to Consumer Staples (XLP) since the Fed's QE∞ announcement may suggest investors aren't buying Bernanke's insistence the program will boost the economy. More likely, it's a case of buy the rumor, sell the news, as the XLY outperformed the XLP by 9.2% in the 6 weeks prior to the Fed move. 1 Comment
Tuesday, September 4, 2012, 3:36 PM A month before the close of Q3, most corporate management teams are more bearish than analysts on earnings - except for consumer staples (XLP). Companies in the sector are the only ones in the S&P 500 to issue more positive guidance than warnings, writes Gregg Harrison, yet analysts may not be giving them credit for such. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]

IYK iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods ETF

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iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods ETF