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- Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink [view article]
- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud [view article]
- Now is the Time for Inverse Sector ETFs [view article]
- Real Estate Bottom - or Prelude to a Drop? [view article]
- How to Invest Like Yale's David Swensen [view article]
- Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
- Home Prices See Record Declines in July [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha [view article]
- A Tale of Two Coasts [view article]
- Commercial Real Estate Hits 7-Year Low [view article]
- Market Rewind: Exceptional Range [view article]
- An Endowment Portfolio From Publicly-Traded Vehicles [view article]
Recent IYR Articles
- Tuesday Outlook: Everything But the Kitchen Sink
- Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud
- Friday Outlook: Who Let the Dogs Out?
- Wednesday Outlook: Approaching Capitulation?
- Real Estate Bottom - or Prelude to a Drop?
- Tuesday Outlook: Capitulation? Not Yet
- Friday Outlook: Investors Finally Giving Bad Data Its Due
- Thursday Outlook: Dysfunctional Politics
- Home Prices See Record Declines in July
- Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha
- Full List of Articles »
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Housing Futures Show Signs of Life [view article]
How does the volume work on this? Open interest is 21 and average is 13. That does not seem like much. Are these Case Shiller futures worthwile considering the low volumes? ReplyThe Real Deal on July's Housing Numbers [view article]
Well said real estate reporter.I don't think that anyone is calling a bottom based on the latest figures. At the same time, it's not unreasonable to say that there are some signs of buyer interest and perhaps a slight change in sentiment. It took a while to get into this mess and it's going to take a while to get out of it. Reply
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
Realizing everyone has stated valid points, heres another aspect to ponder...The Internet. People are now able to use the interent to search rates, new mortgage programs, stocks etc...
With that said i believe the internet is large contributing factor to our current "crisis". People are realizing that they can navigate their way through various internet sites, getting the "raw" truth about our current and what programs are available.
I believe when the market stablizes we will see numbers drop by atleast 1/3. Refer to the book Freakeconomics, by S. Levitt. Makes sense. Reply
estate
reporter
The Real Deal on July's Housing Numbers [view article]
We here in the media do make lots of mistakes, but this isn't one of them. The NAR figures *are* seasonally-adjusted.Reply
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
Tim, you need to find that lost sales data from the 80s and 90s you did the analysis on. It probably didn't conclude what you think it did. There is no way real estate is stabilizing. ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
What do they call a former homebuilder? Yeah, waiter. ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
While everyone here is probably right about the real estate market, they are probably wrong about (homebuilder) stocks. The two are not always correlated and the author raises some credible "technical" points about these sector stocks. As a longtime bear on homebuilders, I am betting on the stocks recovering despite their "property" values declining. At least for a substantial retracement - which is still worth the long trade.Food for thought! Reply
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
When I see on the evening news stories of holders of large inventories of unsold/unsalable homes bulldozing them to reduce that inventory, then I will consider the possibility that housing has bottomed. The current unsold inventories eclipse previous historical comparisons, making previous historical comparisons a poor yardstick to measure things by. ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, looks like a duck.... it has to be a duck !This is a down market and will not come back untill there is a much bigger implosion. The banks are so scared they do not want to lend any money. Look at the rates on forward money that tell the whole story.
We are far from the bottom... very far. Reply
Lathrop
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
The market is digesting the sales reports from the summer. Home sales drop after Labor Day when children need to be registered in schools and do not pick up again until the end of the school year. Add in the cool weather pattern of La Nina with a cold winter with new homebuilders being forced to expend more of their own money to heat their new homes which will be sitting vacant and things are looking bleak. Meanwhile, municipalities, strapped for cash, will be raising local property tax rates, followed by a wallop of insurance premiums rebounding from the last five years when the industry was underpricing everything. Every potential homebuyer and speculator is sitting and waiting for the spring when home sellers will be desperate. Hot market real estate attorneys, title companies and settlement agencies are sitting at their computers playing solitaire waiting for the phone to ring. Real estate brokers are watching their Mercedes get reposessed. It is going to be a cruel, cruel winter as homebuyers try and save as much as they can for the upcoming inevitable mortgage rate increase by next summer. I would not gamble my worst enemy's money on a homebuilder ETF. It is strictly an eyes-glued-to-the-term... trader game, and I spend enough time in front of the computer as it is. ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
Sounds like wishful thinking. A few weeks ago a bottom was being called in financials but that sentiment has quickly disappeared. Even if a bottom is in, any major recovery is years away. ReplySpring
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
An opinion at this point of the game has no validity. With unemployment, credit card debt coming crisis, heating cost this winter, gasoline prices that will rise again will a play a major factor in the housing market. If everything stays realativly stable then I say we have the forming of a bottom and would agree with you. If everything goes negative then we have never seen the likes of what is to come. The great depression talked about in future generations will the the one we will live through ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
Look at insider sales (TOLL) for instance and re-think your story... ReplyWhat the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [view article]
You and the market are probably wrong. The backlog of unsold homes is the price lid on new homes, it is not going up, but down. Good try, but no cigar either. ReplyEndowment Investing 2008, Yale-Style [view article]
Thanks Mebane for your article. It's very good and to the point.Reply