iShares Dow Jones US Total Market Ind (IYY)

All Comments on IYY

  • commenter
    CarlosSlim
    Apr 25 11:57 AM
    My Website
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    I would like to see analysis on the captial inflows into Ponzi schemes.

    Seriously, some people think the market's rise is due to pensions/mutual funds/IRAs/401Ks funded by...wait for it...

    ....BABY BOOMERS!!!!

    Who are now beginning to retire.

    When the BABY BOOMERS retire, can anyone guess what will happen?

    Anyone? Anyone?

    Bueller?     Reply
  • commenter
    curious cat
    Apr 25 10:32 AM
    My Website
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    i don't know, but my wife keeps buying things and planning another vacation. does that mean anything? yup, some people do not read the business news. they do not care where the dow is and just keep doing what they've been trained to do. they consume. thank god for superman, i mean market, and the american way. Reply
  • commenter
    Pauly B
    Apr 25 09:20 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    Housing is in a upswing, the American Consumer has recovered, no recession, no stagflation, 90 % of companies are giving positive forward guidance and are profitable, the financials have rebounded, Man this economy is on fire. Gotta love the bulls right now. Just saying and believing this makes one feel so good.

    For me I think I will stay in my bunker a little bit longer and keep my puts and short positions on just in case.     Reply
  • commenter
    cashew
    Apr 25 08:17 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    The problems are so big that they can't let it fail!!!!!! The market has been hyped in the late 90's and then real estate was blown up due to the stock market crash in 2000. The market will move higher on green technology and a slow restoration of housing. However, housing is doomed to go nowhere for years and the stock market will be the only game in town. Even with inflation interests rate next year may make a modest climb . I agree the fundamentals of the economy suck but that doesn't mean the market won't move a lot higher by next year ! Reply
  • commenter
    peterthepain
    ter
    Apr 25 07:34 AM
    My Website
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    this is a very interesting debate!
    I love to read
    benbittrolff.blogspot..../
    www.financialarmageddo.../
    globaleconomicanalysis.../

    so seeking alpha is interesting because it is much more bullish and gives another view.

    my own view is that this is a big deal and that it is too soon to believe that its all over, I read articles like this one because I may be wrong and I am hedged to some extent. i believe that the market is being propped up like user 1437 does.
    Japan provides an illustration of what can happen - top around 40,000 drop to around 28,000 (looks cheap?) drop to around 17,000 (cheaper?) then down to 12,000 then up and down between 12,000 - 20,000 then 8,000 before back to 12,000 then 17-18000 then 12,000 for 18 years!

    you probably think that it couldn't happen here.
    I wouldn't be so rude to those who disagree with me - I may be wrong!     Reply
  • commenter
    fxtrader07
    Apr 25 03:41 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    as i have pointed out elsewhere this will neither be a straigt downward crashing market nor a new bull run. some sectors have already had a devastating bearmarket and a sharp recovery (e.g. homebuilders). others had the first leg down (retailers), some are in turbo bull mode (enbergy) and some have been holding up but will likely enter into cyclical declines as well (tech, "growth"-sec... what gives? the averages won't do much overall for probably years to come. the s&p for instance might just swing around between 1500 and 900. a wide range, granted, but as things stand you won't make much money with your average etf at all.
    p/e compression has been underway and will continue. the consumer spending will be anemic and shrinking for the coming 2-3 years as the households work themselves slowly out of their overextended debt levels. of course, you probably will have made money 10 years from now if you just hold but returns might be very small overall and inbetween there could be gut-wrenching declines.
    focus on proven, time tested businesses which cheap valuation and robust cash flow and good dividends and keep part of the holding in cash and some in physical gold and commodity stocks (dont chase either one). some financial stocks look cheap here, but as i am unable to assess the risksn for any of the banks (anything can still be hidden in the balance sheets) i won't touch them as i cannot properly manage the risk forn these stocks     Reply
  • commenter
    ICouldBeWron
    g
    Apr 25 02:34 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    My concern is that we are going to see a classic sell in May and go away scenario.

    Here's how I think it might play out. Crude and natural gas make one last surge upwards, crude tops at around US$130 sometime in early May. Then we see selling across the board in commodities, and also in commodity stocks. This pulls down the major US averages which have been trading sideways, and they join the shanghai composite and nikkei, trending down. S&P can't close above 1400 for more than a few days.

    At the same time the Yen begins to gain strengthen. The Yen has been weakening recently and has almost pulled back to support (~50dma) levels. Once it reaches support it will resume the bull wave up that began back in mid 2007 when equities were topping. A pattern emerges of days where the Yen (and maybe Renminbi) strengthen and commodities and equities sell off. The Dow Jones transports having formed a clear heads and shoulders top break 200dma support and enter free fall. The Yen bull market becomes the dominate theme as all eyes turn again to the Yen and the unwinding of the carry trade.

    I'm still trying to work out bonds.

    Ultimately crude (WTIC) reaches a nadir between USD80-90 and a bottom in equities/commodities forms.

    OTOH if the S&P closes above 1400 for a couple of days within the next few weeks I'm on wrong and I'll cover my shorts.
     Reply
  • commenter
    bearfund
    Apr 24 11:53 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    karchad, I too like to buy assets on the cheap. It's even a point of pride not to overpay. The problem is, stocks are not cheap today. While there are exceptions (and my, the effort I invest in looking for them), most companies and indeed entire sectors have wildly unrealistic earnings expectations for the next couple of years. The harsh reality is that a stock trading today at 16x trailing earnings and an "estimated" (random number pulled out of analyst's ass) 14x forward earnings is more probably trading at 20x forward earnings with additional downside risk. Companies that sell to individuals (called "consumers" by the media) are going to find - and are finding already - that unless their products are essential to life, they're going to have a lot fewer customers. The reason for this is straightforward: many American individuals have negative net worth and most of those who do not have substantially all their assets in retirement accounts. Under those conditions, spending tends to equal credit creation. No credit, no spending. America is simply tapped out at every level, from the individual to the US Treasury. If you want to make money in this market, you have to look abroad or focus on commodities. Maybe there are a few US companies sufficiently undervalued to be worth the risk, but there are very few I even give a second look and I haven't bought one in the past 2 years.

    You're absolutely right that when it seems like things can't get any worse it's historically a good time to buy. I'm simply not convinced that the market has reached that point psychologically. People are thinking credit crunch followed by brief, mild recession. The reality is very different. This recession may or may not be mild, but it will not be brief; if it is, it will turn out to be followed by another in short order. The milder the recession, the longer it will last, the more inflation will accompany it, and the better commodities and foreign assets will look. At some level, the facade of value creation propped up in front of credit creation simply becomes unbelievable and something has to give. It's either a major recession or dramatic inflation and devaluation or both. Once all that has worked itself out (and everyone thinks, as they did in 1980, that things simply couldn't get any worse), stocks will be a great buy -if- America learns the right lessons from it. I figure that to be several years off yet and it depends on that most unpredictable of factors, politics. The early 80s had Volcker and Reagan to shake the country out of its funk. Things are worse this time, no matter what sunshine is being blown up your ass by bulls, and leadership is in shorter supply than ever. You're right on principle but terribly, devastatingly wrong on timing. Average down, I guess. You'll eventually make money, just a lot less than you could have.     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Pseudonym
    Apr 24 05:00 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    "Here's a hint: you make money buying on bad news, not good news. Good luck losing your money"

    Here's another: Bad news can get worse...

    ---------------------

    From a technical standpoint, I see us in the recovery phase of the first Elliot wave down.

    The 3rd wave down is a high probability.

    It's not time to bury your head in the sand, it's just time to be cautious and ready to move out of the way if/when that tsunami wave hits.     Reply
  • commenter
    karchad
    Apr 24 04:59 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    John, you're right for individual stocks, i dont advocate buy-and-hold for that. But for etfs/index funds, it's the best we can do. nobody can time the market. Not you, not me, not Buffet,Rogers, etc. The best we can do, is buy at low prices. Period. And you and i can tell what is a relatively low price. when the market drops 20%, it's time to buy. sure, you may not make money next week, next month. but long term, you return will exceed others' and maybe even exceed the indices. When the market is up for 5 years in a row, or bubbles up 80% in a year, it's time to lighten up. That's the best I can do to get decent returns. I can't time. And i dont believe ANYONE can. Not even a computer. Reply
  • commenter
    karchad
    Apr 24 04:56 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    I'm grateful to the people who defended my comments, but i'm a little upset at it! Not personally, but I like to see 100 people attacking my optimism. Anyway, there will also be some John Pseudonyms, so don't be so hard on him. He helps the rest us profit in the equity's market! Without him, i wouldnt be retired! Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Pseudonym
    Apr 24 04:56 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    I'm not saying that between now and next week the DJIA will be at zero.

    I'm saying the risk/reward ratio is not favorable to a "buy and hold" strategy.

    This market is for the nimble; not your typical mutual fund investor.

    Heading for all time highs while the economy sinks is a sure sign of mania. And the average guy always takes it in the shorts when the mania ends.     Reply
  • commenter
    karchad
    Apr 24 04:53 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    Hey John Pseudonym, as the market slowly drifts up, it will be up 100% and you'll still be yelling "bear trap". I've heard from the likes of you for 40 years now, and have made tons of money off of people like you. Keep listing what's wrong with the economy, while I make money, buying at low points of the market, when people like you are yelling "Disaster"..... By the way, homebuilders ITB is up from 13 to almost 21, i'm in at 17. An amateur like is probably scratching his hear, wondering how that can be, "the news is so bad". Here's a hint: you make money buying on bad news, not good news. Good luck losing your money Reply
  • commenter
    steve west
    Apr 24 04:12 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    John go take your gun and your survival gear and hunker back down in your bunker where you belong. leave the real investing to those of us who know what we are doing
    In fact keep your money under the mattress - the market is headed higher and that is just the way of the world     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Pseudonym
    Apr 24 01:49 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    GM,

    This village idiot will have his fortune in the bank when this blows over.

    There are too many dark clouds to justify anything but short term buying and selling for traders.

    The "buy and hold" strategy of the masses is dangerous at this time.

    With all of the serious (known problems) in the world economies, why in the world would you want to be standing on the tracks as the light approaches?

    I can't predict the future, but the past and the present have set up a risky situation; best to get out the way and until you see what the light is exactly.

    JM

     Reply
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