iShares Dow Jones US Total Market Ind (IYY)

All Comments on IYY

  • commenter
    De Val Yood
    Buck
    Apr 24 01:36 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    Brett -- The dollar continues to lose value. What would your chart look like if you made it in terms of (a) Euros, (b) gold or (c) oil? Reply
  • commenter
    User 143167
    Apr 24 12:44 PM
    My Website
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    The only reason you should be optimistic about this market is that it is too big to fail for the US. Imagine the HUGE unfunded pension liabilities on all companies' balance sheet if the market tanked another 20% from here. Not like anytime in the history, this country is now built up by financial assets and credits ONLY after most manufacturing has been shipped out.
    Wise up, "The problem of the big banks is the problem of the whole country now". No way can we ever get rid of this brain cancer without paralysing this country, so the Fed's only viable way is to dilute this problem by inflation. In that scenario, an equity market tumble will fail the Fed's effort, that is why the government, the talking heads on major media, the big fund industry gurus, will do all their best to save it, no matter how overvalued it may be. Have to get an equity bubble to counter the effects of bursting housing bubble.     Reply
  • commenter
    globalmacro
    Apr 24 12:40 PM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    Mr. "Pseudonym",

    You're absolutist tone clearly labels you as the village idiot. Congrats.

    GM     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Pseudonym
    Apr 24 11:28 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    This is a sucker lull.

    The past is not the present. 2008 is not 2002 in any respect.

    I won't list all of the serious problems with our economy as you should know them by now. But taken together they spell no growth and the potential for serious negative growth.

    That's hardly a "bottom".

    I predict you'll be handed your head on a paper plate.     Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    Apr 24 11:22 AM
    My Website
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    The global investor is investing in what is considered a safehaven, essential commodities. In past domestic or global downturns, investors turned to bonds and stocks and went long. The health of the U.S. financial system is very much still in question. Main St. is cutting spending and Main St. is 70% of the GDP. Main St. is now dragging down Wall St., it is inevitable. The entire easy credit economy created a ton of over expansion and our service economy (80%) is not something the U.S. or globe really needs at this time. I expect GDP to contract to -20 within three to four years with the U.S. energy policy (or lack thereof) being the wild card. So for now, I will take the limited recovery from stimulus and sell my consumer healthcare media business while the bulls are fooled into thinking all is well again. Reply
  • commenter
    karchad
    Apr 24 11:14 AM
    Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us [view article]
    My optimistic take is that when selling dries up, we're at a bottom, even above it. It will take awhile for buying to pick up, yes, but to me, downside risk is limited, the greater risk is in missing that sudden move up. I'm in at this point. If the awful daily news hasn't created more selling, then there's no more selling to be had. I can wait, like in 2002, i went in big in August, the low was hit in october, but i had to wait till the next year for the gains. That's okay. I can look beyond CNN's daily disaster stories for my investment strategy. I like this article. Reply
  • commenter
    goatfarmer
    Apr 08 11:41 AM
    My Website
    All-ETF Portfolios vs. Strategic Mix of Stocks [view article]
    I fee the same. Name calling detracts from the credibility of the name caller. Geoff, nice to see an article with a simple point. Reply
  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:17 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on IYY
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    Kunst
    Dec 19 08:29 PM
    Almost All U.S. Index ETFs Now in Oversold Territory [view article]
    So anything 1 SD below its 50 day MA is oversold and due to rise? By that standard, I'll bet there were a ton of screaming good buys in late 2001. What goes down may go up, but not necessarily immediately. Sometimes what goes down keeps going down, for good reason.. Reply
  • commenter
    dsassyt@aol.
    com
    Dec 18 06:45 PM
    Almost All U.S. Index ETFs Now in Oversold Territory [view article]
    Can you please explain the flag system. I am sure it is simple,but I can't seem to figure what is undervalued. Reply
  • commenter
    matt c.
    Dec 06 12:15 AM
    Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources [view article]
    this is an interesting article, but, over the past couple of years, i think it's safe to say that the bears have been right a lot more often than the bulls have when it comes to the housing market and the economy.

    as i see it, the debate about the housing market affecting the overall economy has gone something like this from BULLISH perspective:

    1. "there is no housing 'bubble,' just a boom that's slowing down and will reaccelerate in the coming months."
    2. "ok, there was a bubble in some select markets, but we don't see it affecting the US housing market as a whole."
    3. "the US housing market was probably in a bubble."
    4. "there aren't significant problems with subprime mortgages."
    5. "there are problems in the subprime market, but they won't spill over into the market for prime mortgages."
    6. "the subprime problems have spilled over into the market for prime mortgages, but we don't see this causing problems in the broader credit market or causing a general credit problem.'
    7. "ok, we've had a credit crunch, but we don't see this causing a recession."

    they've been wrong on steps 1-6. it is crazy to believe that they'll be wrong on step #7? i don't think it is. i'm not saying that a recession is guaranteed by any means, but, on balance, the bears, even the permabears, have been right more often than the bulls about the housing market.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 110789
    Oct 03 06:54 PM
    Exchange-Traded Funds and Closed-End Funds by Asset Class, Type and Provider [view article]
    Are there any EFT funds that are purelt composed of vietnam companies? lasmatas@yahoo.com Reply
  • commenter
    Jeff
    Oct 01 07:53 PM
    My Website
    Are You Missing the ETF Rally? [view article]
    Uncle Bill -
    Thanks for your question. I can see that you did some research with genuine interest, so let me try to clarify a few things.

    While I have been trading market sectors through model-based rotation systems for nearly ten years, the application to the ETF's, and particularly to iShares, is a new approach for us. I have tried to explain why this universe is especially good for our model, and I'll write more on this in the future. Meanwhile, the record you see here is what we actually did. The articles include a rapid trade in and out of a sector in August, and how we were out of the market for a month.

    I am trying to illustrate what it is really like to trade a system. Most people do not understand at all. I do not expect to call bottoms and tops with this method. In fact, I know that I will get whipped around at transitional points. How? From studying the careful, out-of-sample back tests, so I am prepared for what I get. I also know there will be some negative patches and drawdowns.

    We use this model for our intermediate outlook even when I personally disagree. (Over the years, the model and I have been pretty close overall, both with excellent records.) Because we make our position public on the Ticker Sense blogger sentiment poll, you can check us out for a longer period. When the model is negative, we include short ETF's to hedge the position. We might still be net long, but the percentage has been reduced.

    I am still trying to figure out what to include in these articles, and what the timing should be. Your comment is helpful in that regard.

    Thanks,

    Jeff     Reply
  • commenter
    Uncle Bill
    Oct 01 03:28 PM
    Are You Missing the ETF Rally? [view article]
    I noticed that your positions in this article are only a month old, so I checked your previous posts to see how you've been doing. On June 20, with SPX a 1512, your post was Outlook Continues to Be Bullish. About two weeks later, July 3, with SPX at 1534, your title was Outlook Moves to Neutral from Bullish. Three weeks after that, with SPX at 1511, your title was Outlook Shifts to Bullish. Ten days later on August 2, with SPX at 1472, you wrote "What has happened in the last week has little to do with the valuation of most stocks. We find many attractive buys on our "watch list" and we have added to our positions." Two weeks later, on August 17, you wrote, "Our intermediate term model turned neutral as we reported on August 1st, and negative a couple of days later." At the time of the post, SPX stood at 1411. That was pretty much the low for the summer. What's a thoughtful reader to conclude? Reply
  • commenter
    NoFate
    Sep 03 04:20 PM
    Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources [view article]
    Carlos - I don't disagree, except what you describe sounds more like depression ...I hope we don't end up there!

    Also, by the time the government does something it is generally too late. It is common for the Fed rate to follow the GDP down, since the recession is generally "baked in" by that point and there is a lag in the affect of lower rate (probably 6-12 months).

    Jeff - I think you got your answer. There are many recession indicators as the responders have pointed out. I think the bottom line is that not all recessions are the same. Some predictors are better than others depending on the cause and kind of recession. I try to triangulate ...or use more than one indicator.

    I'm amused that Economists are such bad recession predictors though. Some economists seem to get it right most of the time, but most do not. I'm not sure if it is one of the following reasons or not:
    1) Hate to be wrong.
    2) Have conflict of interest with job.
    3) Are too focussed on other economic studies.
    4) Are not well educated.

    I mean both "The Economist" magazine and the Federal Reserve studies put the probability at 30-40%, yet many Economists are so stupid they say there is virtually no chance of recession.

    There is something rotten in Denmark!     Reply
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