iShares Dow Jones US Total Market Ind (IYY)

All Comments on IYY

  • commenter
    gordon
    Sep 01 12:08 PM
    Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources [view article]
    The BLS was responsible for 81% of the "official" job creation ytd, all phantom jobs created to satisfy your "transit employment" element. How about TEMP WORKER numbers? They have never failed to lead those "official" payroll numbers, it says recession, so does retail sales, biz spending, here's accurate info.www.financialsense.com... Reply
  • commenter
    aceemily
    Aug 31 04:41 PM
    Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources [view article]
    Excellent article. There is so much info noise that it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaf. It was good to know that there are independent pundits that use empirical data instead of a preconceived philosophy to give direction. This summation made for good reading. Reply
  • commenter
    Dominoes
    Falling
    Aug 31 02:43 PM
    Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources [view article]
    Obviously the bulls have reviewed the bears arguments and disagree but how do you explain the 50% decline in the housing stocks all the while the bulls are denying the dominoes lining up as predicted by the bears. How do you stop the dominoes of reverse wealth effect, mortgage resets, the solvency credit crunch and tighter credit with higer rates, the elimination of MEW (mortg. equity withdrawal), fewer leverage buy-outs and corp. buy backs, less foreign buying of any mortgage products, the falling dollar, less yen carry-trade, etc.etc. etc. Reply
  • commenter
    CrossProfit
    Aug 09 01:59 AM
    My Website
    Market Memoir: The Great Bull Market [view article]
    Mazel tov!

    1) Does this mean that gold has some catching up to do over the next 25 years?
    2) An ounce is an ounce. How many of the original S&P 500 stocks from 25 years ago are in the index today?
    3) If you stuck with the original index from 25 years ago, what would the percentage be?

    Either way, this is impressive as you can play the index. Now, if you were to go back a little farther you will find that oil and the S&P 500 are neck to neck in this race. Remember oil at $2 a barrel?

    Eddy loves our data mining tactics…

    Save some Champaign for the night watch… it doesn't look like they are getting ready to celebrate on the NIKKEI.

    Saul Sterman
    CrossProfit     Reply
  • commenter
    Jeff
    Aug 03 12:20 AM
    My Website
    Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish [view article]
    If you check out recent posts at the blog, oldprof.typepad.com/a_.../ , you will see a further explication of the TCA model that we use for this.

    Thanks,

    Jeff     Reply
  • commenter
    dsassyt@aol.
    com
    Aug 02 01:58 PM
    2Q and YTD ETF Performance Review: Large Cap, Growth Funds Lead the Way [view article]
    Do you include Powershares in your comparisons ever? Reply
  • commenter
    Dr. Gregory
    Tucker
    Jul 26 06:18 PM
    The Dow Falls 226 Points: Predictably, Hysterical Headlines Follow [view article]
    Mr.Sullivan, you are so right. We love mtaphors that dramatize the end of the world; they make everything so real and so serious and oh so critical, and such a load of malarky. As the numbers get bigger the swings get bigger, and so what. It isn't the swings that bother us, it is our refusal to own the truth that we don't run jack sh--. Being in the market without knowing control is a mytyh is like sailing a 50 foot schooner with no sailing lessons. You can study the market for life and if you don'tr accept the truth that over and beyond market knowledge, it will do strange things because it is run by the psyche, and the psyche defends fictions as facts until the sh-- hits the fan. If you don't like the game, get out of it! Reply
  • commenter
    Lee Carlson
    Jul 26 03:23 PM
    The Fed Stops Spoonfeeding Us: A Great Depression for Housing? [view article]
    Can't argue with the comments above ! Right now housing is in big trouble with Fl , CA, and Az leading the way. Floridas problems are primarily State Laws at work, driving up RE Taxes so high that people can't afford homes and Insurance is also to blame as we had Allstate and State Farm bailing out,..too risky they say ! Relief is on the way they say, but we have to wait until Nov. 9 ( When the tax bills come out ) and again in Jan. when issues about the taxes , which are a Constitutional problem are up for a vote to change the way Taxes are calculated.
    Our only real hope, nationwide, is to have our currency devalued,..which is happening fast,..to the point that our prices become bargains to Europeans and Canadians.     Reply
  • commenter
    Paul Meisel
    Jul 26 09:25 AM
    The Fed Stops Spoonfeeding Us: A Great Depression for Housing? [view article]
    Leo hits a several good points.

    New housing costs should be driven by 3 things: the cost of materials (rising over time but relatively stable), the cost of construction labor (similar), and the cost of the land and developing it (varies widely geographically).

    Therefore the amount of deflation is going to vary widely geographically based on the relative demand in that area, and how it compares to recent times. Some places will hold up well due to demand in that area; some places (a few rural areas I know come to mind) never experience the bubble inflation in the first place. But a lot will either drop in price dramatically or just sit in inventory until demand comes back.

    Locally the trend I see is that there are some sellers willing to take a big price hit because they have owned the place awhile and are seeing decreased profit rather than losses.     Reply
  • commenter
    leojbourne
    Jul 25 11:54 PM
    The Fed Stops Spoonfeeding Us: A Great Depression for Housing? [view article]
    It would be good to have objective data on housing prices and sales by region, since declines in the median sale price without respect to regional weightings are not useful data. In some markets, inventory and time on the market have greatly increased, but prices have not decreased. Other markets have been overpriced for several years, and a correction was to be expected at some point. I am not trying to minimize the large impact of housing price declines on the economy, but its deflationary effect does seem to be part of the Fed's plan to control growth.

    The subprime mortgage issue has several major components: decline in real estate prices due to desperation selling, and increased risk to hedge funds owning mezzanine and equity grade mortgage backed securities or other collateralized debt obligations. Neither of these deserves the high level of worry that currently prevails.

    Desperation selling and outright defaults are, in my view, largely a product of speculation. As I understand it, the numbers are growing, but the percentage of defaults in terms of total number of mortgages is still extremely low. New bankruptcy laws will assist lenders in holding many borrowers hostage to debt for the rest of their lives, if foreclosures do not bring enough money to repay the mortgage (this depends on state mortgage laws.) I expect the default numbers to level off, not accelerate, since the really bad loans go belly up first, and I think that has been done already. Interest rates are not going up. As long as homeowners have jobs, they will usually find a way to make payments on their primary residence.

    In terms of defaults affecting hedge funds owning CDOs, once again I am not concerned. I believe (but could be wrong) that most at-risk portfolios are owned by under-informed and poorly-advised groups with a high greed quotient, such as pension funds, college endowments, foreign investors and wealthy individuals. I don't expect major banks and financial institutions to have risked significant portions of their business on speculative CDO ventures, especially ventures involving leverage or underwriting in return for cash flow. Major institutions that have been in business for decades are not likely to bet the farm on such risk. I expect most of the pain to fall on groups who expected something for nothing (or at least, for no risk) and who indeed made a good profit for a number of years, and probably distributed a goodly portion of it to their members. It is unlikely that many people will be bigger net losers, at the end of the day, than they would have been if they had invested in the stock market during a normal bear market period.

    Some worry about the unwinding of leveraged CDO money that has been hedged incorrectly on the short side to misbehaving tracking funds or indexes. Once again, we should keep things in perspective. The loss of a few billion dollars in the global economy is no longer a big deal.

    Moreover, there is an economic imperative at work now that has not previously existed in U.S. history. We are a huge debtor. Those to whom we owe money have bet their own economic welfare by recycling dollars into our treasuries to help keep interest rates low so that we will continue to prosper and to buy their exports. They cannot risk major perturbations to our economy, or else their holdings will lose a huge amount of value, and large value has already been lost due to the weakening dollar. Therefore, when push comes to shove, money will become available for major bailouts and buyouts. This won't happen for the small players, because there's not enough vested interest to help them. But if major institutions have troubles, they'll be rescued -- if no one else will do it, the Fed will.

    My reasoning is based on the assumption, which I am seeing increasingly validated in recent years, that everything must happen so that the rich will get richer. Using this assumption, all else follows. Recessions and depressions are bad for business. Therefore, in this globally interconnected financial world, business (and governments -- sometimes it's hard to separate the two) won't let them happen, at least not until the big players have their money off the table.

    However, when small and medium sized investors decide to play for high stakes with high risk, they usually end up getting punished. Later the high rollers come in and buy up the debris for pennies on the dollar.

    This happened during the Savings and Loan fiasco, when developers made money (subsidized by the taxpayers) buying foreclosed property from the Resolution Trust Corporation. Additional taxpayer money went into salvaging or liquidating the failing Savings and Loans. Where S&Ls closed, deposits migrated to nearby banks, which saw profits rise. In retrospect, that "crisis" was barely a ripple on the pond of history. Many younger people don't even know what the RTC was.

    I believe the current real estate and CDO difficulties are transient, and that real estate prices will stabilize within the next two years. The cost of construction materials has fallen dramatically. It is cheaper to build a new house today than it was two years ago. That artifact is keeping prices low on sales of existing homes. When the current investory clears, prices should reach equilibrium about 15% lower than they were two years ago, and should thereafter increase at near the rate of inflation, as they usually do.     Reply
  • commenter
    sarthur118
    Jul 24 10:14 PM
    Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish [view article]
    I also would be interested in any further explication of Vince's model and related strategy

    thanks     Reply
  • commenter
    dhirst
    Jul 24 07:01 PM
    Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish [view article]
    I would definitely be interested in more details about the basis for the model. Reply
  • commenter
    NutritionFac
    ts
    Jul 24 05:58 PM
    Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish [view article]
    Hmm. Unfortunate timing, one might say. Still, I'm sure many would be interested in any further elaboration on your model. Thanks. Reply
  • commenter
    Frank Li
    Jun 10 04:00 PM
    Buy Into Upcoming Global Weakness - Just Not In U.S. and Japan [view article]
    Hard to see how other global markets aren't linked to America and Japan. My guess is that if the US market takes a hit, emerging markets (for example) will take an even bigger hit. Reply
  • commenter
    wixeywaxy
    Jun 07 04:41 PM
    Why Did the Market Act Like Bernanke Said Something New? [view article]
    You article is correct, the Fed has been following rather consistently it's policy indicated earlier and with less mealy mouth conversation than under the Greenspan area. Interest rates are low, yet not too low. The result is a reasonable balance which is fair to the entity making loans as well as the borrower. There is obviously no reluctance to fund huge deals presently. Vic Reply
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