Jarden Corp. (JAH)
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JAH Forum Topics
- All Comments on JAH
- General Discussion on JAH
- Russell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float [view article]
- Is Trouble Brewing at GLG Partners? [view article]
- 4 Steps to Ensure Your Protection in Today's Environment [view article]
- Jarden's 'Rope a Dope' Investor Relations [view article]
- Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
- Jarden Feels The Wal-Mart Squeeze [view article]
- Jarden Execs In Conflictual 'Blank Check' Venture? [view article]
loading ...Recent JAH Articles
- Russell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float
- Thursday's Options Outlook: CSCO, CROX, JAH, ENER, PSUN
- Is Trouble Brewing at GLG Partners?
- Jarden's 'Rope a Dope' Investor Relations
- 4 Steps to Ensure Your Protection in Today's Environment
- Are Jarden's Earnings Set to Implode?
- Jarden Remains a Compelling Short
- Jarden Feels The Wal-Mart Squeeze
- Why You Need Long and Short Positions In Your Portfolio
- The Short Case on Jarden
- Full List of Articles »
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Russell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float [view article]
...and rely soley on disposable income of its customers who in turn are leveraged to their eyeballs in credit & mortgage debt. Hit it Kenney..."You got to know when to fold em know when to hold em and know when to run.... ReplyRussell 1,000 Stocks with the Highest Short Interest as a Percentage of Float [view article]
I can't imagine anyone shorting WYNN, LVS, MGM, BOYD gaming. These stocks could take off anytime and have been going up for the last 3 weeks. All four are well managed companies and well capitalized. ReplyIs Trouble Brewing at GLG Partners? [view article]
well done, great call!.. you made my watch list..Reply
Editors
General Discussion on JAH
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyIs Trouble Brewing at GLG Partners? [view article]
Interesting notifications. However you forget that bad perfomances in January 08 was also due to a bad preparation of fund managers to bear markets. Consequently by underestimating glg's ability to react (it takes time when you manage 24 B$!) you underestimate glg's revenues 08. Replysack
4 Steps to Ensure Your Protection in Today's Environment [view article]
Did you cover on HSII before today's conference call? Are you still short? ReplyJarden's 'Rope a Dope' Investor Relations [view article]
I'll have a follow up in a few days but if you're that "anxious" post with your real name and email address and I'll send you my thoughts on JAH or do you prefer to post anonymously? LEH is one of my favorite research houses, if it wasn't for Bruce Harting, CFA and his views on DSL, it would have been much harder to make $ off shorting since his institutional clients would not have been holding the bag.What's so slanted about what I've written in regards to JAH over the past year I've followed the company? What is not factual in what I've presented?
1) Did Franklin and Co issue a press release covering their paltry $2MM insider purchase? YES, and what the hell is the point of something like that, how many companies put out PRs highlighting a $2MM purchase? AP wires may pick up on the Form 4 filings but do companies release a statement about it?
2) Where are the JAH filings that indicate Marlin Equities (Franklin) and Ian Ashken have gone on to create two SPACs on JAH time while JAH shareholders have lost 40-50% of their investment value? If you're happy to have your CEO and CFO spend their time investing in GLG and raising capital during the time they're supposed to be running your company while being paid by JAH shareholders, fine. But what have I said that was slanted with respect tothat?
3) Any press release covering the acceleration of equity grants to Franklin and Co recently? NO, and I wonder why there would be a PR on Franklin spending a few bucks to buy shares but then no PR to cover the fact that they are getting equity grants accelerated.
So what have I stated that is slanted or tabloid journalism, everything I've presented in FACT. Is your long position preventing you from reading anything that contradicts your position with an objective mind? Seems that way.
You find it amazing that SA allows people to post contradictory but factual based work with real analysis? If I was long on JAH and published a rosy piece saying ignore the fact that Franklin and Ashken are making a fortune off other investments and investing their time in creating and directing these SPACs while they're supposed to be running your company, ignore the incredible debt load because those Margarita concoctions and bicycle playing cards are hot sellers, or ignore the difficult Q4 comparisons since they jammed that K2 acquisition in their to gum up any comparable analysis, then that would be fine with you?
You see right through me? You're a pathetic anonymous poster upset about a contrary view to a position you hold. I do this for a living and put out any comments/analysis along with my real contact info. Do you think I'd publicly discuss any idea if I did not vet the idea and believe there was tangible analysis to back my viewpoint from the start, have you read the prior postings on JAH here? If I put out anything that resembles tabloid journalism, how does that benefit me from a professional standpoint? Seems you think people are that foolish to think that 1) writers here can move actually markets 2) that people can't distinguish between objective work and slanted short work (although slanted long views are fine). Reply
Jarden's 'Rope a Dope' Investor Relations [view article]
I anxiously await your next garbage piece after JAH delivered a strong quarter and excellent cash flow. Cash is cash and no matter what you claim that is the ultimate measure of performance. Bucket shops?? Since when were Lehman and Goldman considered bucket shops?I find it amazing you are allowed to publish slanted pieces like this when you are short the stock as your only aim is to benefit yourself and your investment by being negative (more like tabloid journalism).
We see right through you. Reply
Jarden's 'Rope a Dope' Investor Relations [view article]
Great insight, thanks. And congrats on the short - looks like it's done well. ReplyJarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
Daniel, yeah excess cash is the right way to do it. It's at it's low so so realize it could easily kick up for a bit and probably do your own dd, I was short DSL at $68-70, was around $75 for about 6 months after I started shorting before it corrected so the point for me is if something doesn't make sense to me i'll stick with it for a while. I've been following JAH since last year and I wouldn't be surprised if it sees $30 before $15. My approach to shorting and sticking it out with a position might not makes sense/fit with others either, depends on the entire portfolio composition.prophets - K2 + JAH capex based on historical figures would seem to indicate they'd need about $100MM in capex, the run-rate interest expense based on the blended interest rate for their debt would be about $200MM and then factor in cash taxes of $116MM or so once you account for D&A of about $110MM. Those fixed charges before any principal amortization (which would be minor since the senior debt is 3 tranches of B loans, another move where the bankers are dopes) and capital leases is $420MM. EBITDA less capex would be around $500MM, resulting in a fixed charge ratio of 1.2x. Interest coverage is under 3.0x. Those are aggresive leveraged finance multiples for buyouts by LBO shops and would be a challenge in today's market against a fresh buyout. Conversely, JAH has a dwindling business with bad credit stats on a totally pro forma run rate basis. It's LTM EBITDA just about $360MM so once again people are betting that JAH will realize all these "synergies" they boast of with K2, if they don't or if K2's own deals (it bought a bunch of companies) fizzle out these guys slow down, the interest expense stays the same, principal amort, not much capex can be scaled back, and then their stuck with $1B+ in stale inventories with the majority as finished goods vs work in progress/raw material.
Also, guys like TGT, WMT, SHLD might have heavier push backs during the holiday season, JAH argues that they have "leading brands" but many of these business were bankrupt before despite those leading brands. Don't know if you really have to have that CrockPot for the xmas or how many Margaritaville's can be sold through. Also, last call, good choice of words by JAH to indicate sell-in was good for sporting goods but based on GMTN and other results, sell -through probably won't be and there could be some returned products.
All that said, JAH's CEO and CFO are wall street heavies, the banks and sellside are in their back pocket but I see some similarities between JAH and other failed consumer products platforms. SPC looked great on a pro-forma basis, had TH Lee running things and that got crushed by debt from $40 to $5, PBH had a similar experience, that was led by GTCR. So smart money, heavy debt, but exposure to big box retail that just squeezes you once you become dependent on them. Those margins don't leave much room for error when you have that heavy interest expense let alone principal amortization to deal with. Reply
Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
Interesting note, but not necessarily a compelling short idea.1. ROIC sucks and they are clearly bad allocators of capital, but it's not exactly like the market is ignoring this fact. The market price trades at a discount to the capital invested.
2. Your own pro-forma figures seem to indicate they are not going to see a bankruptcy. I agree with your own point about tangible book value being less important. They don't seem to have much capex requirements. What are the WC requirements then? With double digit EBITDA margins... I don't see how this stock at ~10x earnings is materially mispriced without a definitive viewpoint on deteriorating margins (due to competition or w/e), which you don't seem to indicate.
Maybe they do hit the wall due to margins/consumer slowdown - if so how do you reach that conclusion. The analysis/argument does seem incomplete w/o a liquidity analysis that might make it more compelling (as suggested by a prior post).
Interesting facts, but not a compelling argument as to whether this security is truly overvalued.
-pro Reply
Jacome
Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
nevertheless, this is a real good piece and I am looking to short this as well. Thanks. The combination you notes: poor mgmt, eroding ROIC turns, and excessive debt -- should pound the stock more.Reply
Jacome
Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
on your ROIC equation, shouldn't it be "less excess cash" JAH needs some of that cash for operating, some it arguably does not.... Reply
Jacome
Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
This guy had a GREAT call on crox, before it got axed in half. ReplyIntensive
Investing
Jarden Remains a Compelling Short [view article]
Thanks for the nice write-up, Amit. I'd taken a look at this at some point as a short and passed, but it definitely does seem like a catalyst is potentially in sight with an oncoming consumer slowdown and tighter debt markets. The negative tangible book value also makes this a potential zero, which is always a great thing in a short.Have you taken a look at all at the debt schedule? Will they be forced to refinance some debt at higher rates anytime soon? Have you done any stress testing to see at what EBIDTA levels they begin to run into significantly trouble covering interest payments?
Thanks,
Eric Reply