Nov. 19, 2014, 2:43 PM
- Up yesterday following the SunEdison/First Wind deal and JA Solar's (JASO +1.2%) Q3 beat and guidance hike, several Chinese solar firms are adding to their gains today, even as the Nasdaq drops 0.5%. JKS +5.7%. TSL +3.9%. YGE +3.3%.
- Roth (Buy, $18 target) is pleased with JA's numbers. "Q4 capacity has been fully booked, and over two thirds of Q1 production has already been allocated ... Trading at just 3.4x our 2015E EBITDA vs. peer average of 8.0x, we continue to believe JASO is under-appreciated and undervalued given the company's strong execution, improving earnings strength, potential for $219mn of 2015 EBITDA, and leading balance sheet (net debt/cap of 24.3%)." It sees a resolution of the U.S./China solar dispute as a potential catalyst.
- This morning, Trina announced a deal to design, build, and run a 10MW Jordanian solar plant. Construction is expected to start in December, and grid connection is expected to happen in Q2 2015.
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:36 AM
- Under pressure for much of last week, solar stocks are rallying (TAN +4.3%) after SunEdison (SUNE +23.5%) and its TerraForm Power (TERP +29.1%) YieldCo announced they're buying leading wind project developer First Wind for up to $2.4B, and JA Solar (JASO +4%) beat Q3 estimates and upped its full-year cell/module shipment guidance to 3.1GW-3.2GW from 2.9GW-3.1GW.
- Gainers: SCTY +3.9%. SOL +4.5%. TSL +3.7%. YGE +2.7%. JKS +3.4%. HSOL +2.8%. ASTI +6%. DQ +3.2%. RGSE +2.6%.
- SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila declares the First Wind deal will double his company's addressable market. Cowen thinks SunEdison "can leverage First Wind’s platform to push into international markets for wind given the potential expiration of the production tax credit for U.S. wind projects."
- Along with its results/guidance, JA announced a $90M buyback; it's good for repurchasing 23% of shares at current levels, if fully used. JA's Q3 gross margin was 15%, -20 bps Q/Q but +370 bps Y/Y. Cell/module shipments rose 15.2% Q/Q and 57% Y/Y to 500.2MW.
Nov. 18, 2014, 9:13 AM
Nov. 18, 2014, 7:07 AM| Comment!
Nov. 17, 2014, 5:30 PM
Nov. 13, 2014, 1:58 PM
- Solar stocks can't catch a break this week. Down on Tuesday following Vivnt Solar's weak results and guidance, and down yesterday in the wake of Canadian Solar's numbers, they're off today after SunPower provided light 2015 guidance.
- Notable decliners: FSLR -4.3%. SUNE -5%. CSIQ -6.9%. JKS -5%. SOL -4.7%. JASO -3.2%. VSLR -3.7%. SOL -4.7%. CSUN -7.9%.
- Chinese polysilicon maker Daqo (DQ -10.1%), which posted mixed Q3 results this morning, is selling off after opening higher.
- Is a lot of bad news priced in? The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -1.6%) is now down 33% from a March high of $51.07, and not far from a 52-week low of $32.23.
Oct. 13, 2014, 4:09 PM
- Solar and fuel cell companies are among the biggest decliners on a day that saw NYMEX crude oil prices fall below $85/barrel (they're now slightly above), and Reuters report the Saudi government "will accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and perhaps down to $80, for as long as a year or two." The Nasdaq as a whole finished down 1.4%.
- Of note: Oil only accounts for 1% of U.S. electricity production, and also a small percentage of electricity output in many other large economies.
- Solar decliners: SUNE -10.7%. FSLR -5.9%. SCTY -9.7%. DQ -9.4%. CSIQ -8.1%.JASO -7.7%. SOL -8.6%. TERP -7.5%. JKS -6.7%. CSUN -5.9%. VSLR -6.3%. TSL -8.7%. YGE -5%.
- Fuel cell decliners: FCEL -6%. PLUG -4.7%. BLDP -7.4%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Sep. 12, 2014, 2:14 PM
- Solar stocks are on the move after Trina Solar (TSL +3.7%) CEO Gao Jifan says its factories are operating at full capacity but the company still can't meet the demand for its solar panels.
- China's top three solar panel makers are at full capacity and will have to expand their production, Gao says, noting that TSL's solar panel production will rise to 3.8 GW by year-end, up from ~3.4 GW at the end of June.
- China recently announced new subsidies for smaller solar energy projects, which Goldman Sachs says will make selling power to the country's electrical grid much more lucrative for the operators and will cause prices of solar components to rise.
- CSIQ +2.6%, CSUN +7.4%, YGE +3%, FSLR +1.7%, SPWR +0.8%, JASO +2.4%, SOL +5.4%.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Sep. 12, 2014, 9:33 AM
- “Right now Trina (NYSE:TSL) is producing at 100 percent capacity and selling at all rates, yet we still can’t meet all customer demand,” CEO Gao Jifan tells Bloomberg.
- All of China's big three solar-panel makers are running at full capacity and need to boost capacity, he says, noting (without providing details) a the results of a survey unveiled yesterday at an industry conference. Trina's solar-panel capacity will rise to 3.8 gigawatts this year from roughly 3.4 gigawatts at the end of June, says Gao, and solar-cell capacity will rise to 2.8 gigawatts from 2.4.
- Trina +2.1% in early action, with JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) -0.8%, and JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) +0.8%.
Sep. 4, 2014, 1:51 PM
- Making good on an August Bloomberg report, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) has called on local governments to identify and support distributed solar projects in their realms.
- As previously reported, extra subsidies will be encouraged for rural and government projects, public infrastructure installations will be promoted, and financial firms have been told to offer discounted loans.
- The NEA is trying to hit an 8GW 2014 distributed solar installation target in spite of a slow start to the year. Its target for utility-scale projects stands at 6GW.
- Several Chinese solar stocks are rallying, as are a few non-Chinese names. YGE +5.1%. CSIQ +3.6%. JASO +3.8%. TSL +2.3%. SOL +2.1%. HSOL +5.2%. DQ +4.7%. ENPH +6.6%. ASTI +6.1%. RGSE +2.8%. SolarCity (SCTY +5.1%) is up after announcing plans to open 20 new operations centers.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Aug. 20, 2014, 8:15 AM
- JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) -6.1% premarket after Q2 earnings and revenues come in short of Wall Street expectations, even as shipments soared.
- On a Y/Y basis, results were much improved: Excluding special items, earnings swung from a year-ago loss, and revenue surged 53% to 2.4B yuan ($390.5M).
- Total shipments during Q2 jumped 47% Y/Y to 681.8 MW, while shipments of modules surged 76% to 445.8 MW; JASO says it expects total cell and module shipments of 730-760 MW in Q3.
- Gross margin was 15.2%, vs. 8.1% in the year-ago quarter and 16.7% in Q1 2014.
- Raises FY 2014 shipment guidance, now expecting to ship 2.9-3.1 GW, vs. prior guidance of 2.7-2.9 GW.
- CEO Baofang Jin expects sustained growth and profitability in H2 "due to accelerating activity in China, and continued favorable product and geographic mix."
Aug. 20, 2014, 7:27 AM| Comment!
Aug. 19, 2014, 5:30 PM
Aug. 19, 2014, 10:20 AM
- "Based on our checks, we estimate the probability of [trade settlement] success is now ~30-40% vs. prior expectations of 5-10%," writes Roth. "The narrative for Chinese solar stocks, in our view, has shifted to a more positive tone."
- Roth's remarks follow a letter from a law firm representing the Chinese government to the U.S. Commerce Department proposing talks for a solar tariff suspension agreement. Last week, Beijing retaliated against U.S. solar module tariffs by closing a loophole for U.S. and Korean polysilicon imports.
- Though admitting many Chinese suspension offers have been rejected over the years, Roth thinks "the Chinese government would not have made an offer without believing it would have a decent probability of success as it does not want to be rejected by the US government publicly."
- Notable gainers: YGE +3.9%. TSL +3.9%. JASO +3.3%. SOL +3.9% CSUN +6%. HSOL +4.3%.
- Solar ETFs: TAN, KWT
Aug. 5, 2014, 11:57 AM
- Bloomberg reports China's National Energy Administration (NEA) might soon announce policies calling on local planners to support more distributed solar projects - specifically, projects in industrial zones, and for companies with buildings sporting large rooftops.
- Among others things, local governments will be encouraged to offer more distributed solar subsidies, and to promote installations on public infrastructure. Financial firms will be urged to offer discounted loans, and to create solar investment funds.
- China is aiming for 8GW of 2014 distributed solar installations (to go with 6GW of utility-scale installations), but there have been doubts the target will be hit following a slow start to the year. Deutsche argued in May 2GW could be a more realistic distributed target.
- Chinese solar names are up strongly. U.S. giant First Solar reports after the bell. TSL +8.4%. CSUN +7.6%. JKS +8.3%. SOL +6.7%. CSIQ +6.3%. JASO +5.7%. HSOL +4.8%. YGE +4.8%. DQ +4.1%. YGE +4.8%.
- Solar ETFs: TAN, KWT
Aug. 1, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) amid a market selloff after SunPower (SPWR -8.5%) posted mixed Q2 results and provided Q3/2014 guidance ranges with midpoints below consensus.
- SunPower also announced it's building a new plant (Fab 5) that could go live in 2017 and eventually produce 700MW+/year of modules, boosting its capacity by over 50%. "Our share has been in single digits for a while and demand for the last 24 months suggests that we can expand share," says CEO Tom Werner.
- The announcement comes 6 weeks after SolarCity (SCTY -3.5%) unveiled plans to build a 1GW+ module plant with newly-acquired Silevo's help, and said it will later build "one or more significantly larger plants at an order of magnitude greater annual production capacity."
- Minimal capacity investments, together with rising U.S./Asian demand, have helped module prices stabilize following gut-wrenching declines in prior years.
- Also: SunPower stated on its CC (transcript) it hasn't decided whether to create a solar project YieldCo similar to SunEdison's (SUNE -4.3%) TerraForm Power (TERP -4.7%), which recently turned in a strong IPO. "It does not look like the company is likely to make a decision anytime soon," says Raymond James.
- Nonetheless, Brean has upgraded SunPower to Buy, citing optimism about strong demand and healthy pricing.
- Other notable decliners: FSLR -3.6%. TSL -8.4%. JKS -6%. CSIQ -5.6%. CSUN -5.7%. YGE -5%. SOL -4.5%. ENPH -5.8%. RGSE -4.5%. HSOL -3.9%. JASO -4.4%.
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