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JASO vs. ETF Alternatives
Tuesday, Nov 122013, 8:59 AM
Tuesday, Nov 122013, 8:59 AM| Comment!
- Up strongly yesterday, ever-volatile solar stocks are giving back some of their gains in premarket trading today after Yingli (I, II) and Hanwha (I, II) provided Q3 results and full-year guidance that left investors wanting more following big 2013 run-ups.
- Notable decliners: TSL -3.9%. JKS -5.2%. JASO -3.4%. CSUN -3.3%. SCTY -1.3%. SUNE -2.5%.
- Also: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is down 2.4% in spite of announcing a 32MW module supply deal for a Chinese solar plant, and First Solar (FSLR) is down 0.7% in spite of announcing it has obtained power purchase agreements for a 40MW California power plant it's building.
Monday, Nov 112013, 3:26 PM
Monday, Nov 112013, 3:26 PM| 3 Comments
- Solar stocks are bouncing back strongly today following last Thursday's SolarCity-led selloff. Though there's no major news trigger for today's gains, industry sentiment has been increasingly positive thanks to good earnings news, optimism about 2014 demand, and signs government support remains healthy.
- China has lifted its 2014 solar installation target to 12GW from 10GW, albeit while keeping its 2015 cumulative installation target intact at 35GW. Meanwhile, Solarbuzz is predicting long-struggling Europe will stabilize in 1H14, and return to growth in 2H14. Germany and the U.K. are expected to account for half of regional demand.
- JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), which has announced a new 70MW module supply deal, is among today's big winners. Others: JKS +10.5%. FSLR +4.2%. SCTY +6.7%. TSL +7.9%. ENPH +5%. YGE +6.7%. CSUN +8.8%. STRI +7.3%.
Thursday, Nov 72013, 2:22 PM
Thursday, Nov 72013, 2:22 PM| 3 Comments
- With shares up over 5x YTD going into the company's Q3 report, SolarCity (SCTY -14%) investors are taking profits in the face of a Q3 beat and above-consensus guidance.
- Credit Suisse (Outperform, $75 PT) is defending SolarCity today, while praising the company's operating leverage and incremental retained value per watt (rose 35% Q/Q in Q3 to $1.9)1.
- Goldman (Neutral, $65 PT) also talks up SolarCity's value retention, as well as its declining operational costs/watt (fell to $0.59/watt from $0.80/watt in Q2). But it also cautions expectations were high, points out "no volume upside was provided" for 2013/2014 deployment targets, and that there's "limited clarity" for SolarCity's solar lease securitization efforts.
- On its CC (transcript), SolarCity mentioned it invested $200M+ in solar deployments in Q3, and financed another $86M. The company has been raising funds for its deployment efforts at a breakneck pace.
- Many solar peers are also off sharply on a rough day for tech momentum play. Thanks to good earnings news, the group rallied sharply both on Monday and last Friday. In addition to SolarCity, China Sunergy's poor guidance could also be playing a role.
- Solar decliners: FSLR -4.2%. SPWR -6.1%. SOL -5.1%. JKS -4.8%. YGE -4.7%. JASO -6.5%. DQ -10.2%. SPWR -6.1%. LDK -5.5%. SUNE -3.8%.
Monday, Nov 42013, 12:56 PM
Monday, Nov 42013, 12:56 PM| 3 Comments
- Positive Q3 guidance revisions from Canadian Solar (previous) and Daqo (DQ +11.2%) are fueling another massive rally in solar stocks, some of which jumped last Friday thanks to blowout Q3 numbers from First Solar (FSLR +4.6%).
- Canadian hiked the midpoint of its Q3 module shipment guidance range by more than 10%, and the midpoint of its gross margin guidance range by 800 bps. Daqo has upped its polysilicon shipment range to 1,200-1,275 MT from a prior 1,000 MT, albeit while slightly lowering its wafer shipment guidance to 6.5-6.6 MT from prior 6.8 MT (shipping delays are blamed).
- The guidance hikes follow a string of positive Q2 reports from Chinese solar firms in August, as companies saw both their sales and margins benefit from growing local demand, diminishing overcapacity, and strong shipments to the high-margin Japanese market. Credit Suisse recently predicted improving demand could lead excess Chinese supply to evaporate by late 2014 or 2015.
- Also: Suntech (STP +13.6%) has officially reached a deal to sell its large and bankrupt Wuxi, China unit to solar cell maker Shunfeng (previous), SunPower (SPWR +10.9%) has announced it's buying module cleaning robot developer Greenbiotics, and SolarCity (SCTY +16.4%) has announced (as part of its seemingly non-stop financing binge) it's selling $54.4M in solar asset-backed notes maturing in Dec. 2026.
- Today's winners, aside from the aforementioned companies: JKS +9.8%. JASO +9.2%. RSOL +8.3%. LDK +6.5%. HSOL +5.2%. YGE +7.4%. CSUN +6%. SOL +6.9%. SUNE +3.5%. TSL +9.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Monday, Oct 282013, 12:15 PM
Monday, Oct 282013, 12:15 PM| 5 Comments
- Though the Nasdaq is only down 0.1%, many 2013 Internet, solar, and enterprise software high-flyers are diving once more. Chinese names are well-represented in the group, as NQ Mobile continues crashing thanks to fraud allegations and Sohu plunges due to weak Q4 EPS guidance.
- The WSJ and NYT have each run pieces asking whether a new tech bubble is afoot, at least in certain hot sectors. "People are reaching for growth," says one fund manager quoted by the WSJ. Others argue the fact the high-flyers generally have substantial revenue, and are often profitable, makes the current situation different from the Dot.com bubble.
- Internet decliners: FB -3.4%. MELI -2.8%. GRPN -5%. ZNGA -2.7%. P -2.4%. DANG -7.6%. VIPS -7%. YY -4.8%. QIHU -5.6%. RENN -5.7%. SINA -2.4%. FUEL -4%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -12.4%. FSLR -4.8%. SOL -8.4%. YGE -8%. JASO -6.9%. GTAT -5.4%. SUNE -4.6%. SPWR -4.3%. SCTY -3.8%. STP -8.9%. TSL -13.2%.
- Enterprise decliners: CRM -3.8%. DATA -4.5%. MKTO -5.8%. WDAY -4%. DWRE -3.4%. VEEV -5.1%. IMPV -3.4%.
- Recent declines: I, II.
- Previous: Cashin sees mobile/cloud bubble
Friday, Oct 252013, 4:21 PM
Friday, Oct 252013, 4:21 PM| 4 Comments
- Chinese Internet and solar stocks, many of which have skyrocketed this year, have closed with decent losses after the Shanghai exchange fell for the fourth day in a row amid credit crunch worries, and as NQ Mobile continued to feel the impact of Muddy Waters' fraud allegations.
- Muddy Waters' detailed accusations regarding ghost addresses, a shell company, inflated market share figures, dubious cash balances, and spyware are likely to yield fresh scrutiny of the financial statements provided by Chinese ADRs, and could also affect the reception given to upcoming IPOs (I, II). Investor concerns about the bookkeeping of U.S.-traded Chinese firms had diminished some this year.
- Chinese Internet decliners: VIPS -9.1%. AMAP -6.1%. YY -6%. QIHU -4.8%. PWRD -5.7%. CYOU -4.7%. SINA -3.8%. LONG -3.5%. YOKU -3%.
- Chinese solar decliners: YGE -12.2%. JKS -9.4%. JASO -9%. DQ -7.2%. TSL -6.8%. CSIQ -4.8%. CSUN -4.4%.
Friday, Oct 112013, 10:32 AM
Friday, Oct 112013, 10:32 AM| 2 Comments
- Two days after tumbling as the government shutdown spawned a general selloff in risk assets, solar stocks are bouncing with the help of strong Q3 numbers and even stronger 2014 guidance from SolarCity. The numbers shine a light on the strong installation growth being seen in the U.S. market.
- Notable gainers: SPWR +5%. FSLR +3.3%. TSL +5.7%. YGE +3.6%. JKS +4.4%. CSIQ +3.9%. JASO +3.9%. DQ +3.4%.
Wednesday, Oct 92013, 1:21 PM
Wednesday, Oct 92013, 1:21 PM| 7 Comments
- A day after Internet stocks with big 2013 gains tumbled as part of a general rout in risk assets, solar stocks are largely doing the same (TAN -3.2%).
- Notable decliners include JA Solar (JASO -6.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -5.6%), First Solar (FSLR -2%), SunPower (SPWR -2.2%), ReneSola (SOL -3.7%), Yingli (YGE -3.9%), Trina (TSL -2.2%), SunEdison (SUNE -0.4%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.6%).
- SolarCity (SCTY -4.7%) is following peers lower on a day when it announced the $158M acquisition of mounting systems supplier Zep Solar. Shares outperformed yesterday following the singing of a California solar bill.
- Suntech (STP -3.5%) has given up the premarket gains it saw on news two Chinese solar cell makers have made bids for the company.
- Debt-laden LDK (LDK +4.6%), which has missed out on this year's big solar rally, is bucking the trend.
Monday, Sep 302013, 11:44 AM
Monday, Sep 302013, 11:44 AM| Comment!
- The Chinese government, which has already set a 35GW 2015 solar installation target, is now offering local solar manufacturers a 50% value-added tax (VAT) rebate for sales taking place from Oct. 2013-Dec. 2015.
- Chinese solar plays are responding well to the news. STP +15.6%. CSUN +23.5%. LDK +13.4%. SOL +5.4%. DQ +4.5%. JASO +3.9%. TSL +4.1%. YGE +3%.
- Also: JinkoSolar (JKS +3.6%) has announced a deal to supply 20MW of modules to the State Grid Corporation (China's biggest electric utility) for a 60MW demonstration project. Deliveries will take place in Q4.
- Last week's gains: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
Friday, Sep 272013, 5:25 PM
Friday, Sep 272013, 5:25 PM| Comment!
- Deutsche's upgrades of Yingli and Trina ended up stoking a broader rally in volatile Chinese solar names, most of whom were already having a pretty impressive week going into today.
- China Sunergy (CSUN +30.4%) was a standout, even though there was no company-specific news to fuel today's massive gains. Other winners: CSIQ +9.5%. SOL +8.8%. JKS +5.3%. JASO +4.1%. DQ +3.7%.
- Yesterday: Solar stocks rally again, India and First Solar in the news
- Wednesday: Solar stocks add to 2013 gains after tariff proposal aired
Wednesday, Sep 252013, 2:45 PM
Wednesday, Sep 252013, 2:45 PM| 2 Comments
- U.S. solar trade group SEIA has issued a proposal that aims to remove the anti-dumping tariffs imposed last year by the ITC on Chinese solar module imports, and also put an end to China's threats to issue retaliatory tariffs on U.S. polysilicon imports.
- The SEIA proposes Chinese manufacturers establish a fund to compensate U.S. rivals for losses caused by Chinese state subsidies, and that mechanisms be created to protect U.S. firms from having to deal with a flood of Chinese imports.
- Both Chinese and U.S. solar names seem to be responding well. JASO +8.6%. SOL +8.4%. TSL +8.2%. SUNE +6.3% (previous). JKS +5.9%. SPWR +5.5%. FSLR +4.2%. YGE +5.8%. JKS +5.9%. CSIQ +3.3%.
- China and the EU reached a solar anti-dumping settlement in August.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN.
Tuesday, Sep 172013, 2:51 PM
Tuesday, Sep 172013, 2:51 PM| 1 Comment
- In an official statement (translation), China's industry/IT ministry says it will ban solar manufacturing projects that "purely" expand capacity. However, the ministry is also mandating a solar company's annual spending on R&D and equipment upgrades combined must exceed 3% of revenue and RMB10M ($1.6M).
- Analysts thinks the mandate is a not-so-subtle way of urging companies to merge.
- As solar equipment suppliers such as GT Advanced (GTAT +2.7%) and Veeco (VECO -2.1%) can vouch, solar manufacturers (Chinese or otherwise) aren't investing much anyway, as they try to soak up the huge amounts of excess capacity created in past years.
- The revenue and gross margin figures provided in the Q2 reports of many solar names (not to mention the YTD performance of their shares) suggest decent progress is being made. Enough so that some think manufacturers will be compelled to add capacity next year.
- Most Chinese module vendors are trading lower, but not all of them: YGE -4.4%. STP -3.2%. JASO -2.2%. TSL -0.8%. LDK -0.6%. SOL +0.9%. CSIQ +1%. Polysilicon maker Daqo (DQ +9.9%) is up strongly.
Monday, Sep 162013, 3:26 PM
Monday, Sep 162013, 3:26 PM| Comment!
- China says it will impose a 6.5% tariff on materials from most U.S. polysilicon suppliers (TAN +1.4%; (KWT +1.5%) beginning Friday, but that's far short of threats it could slap anti-dumping duties of as much as 57%.
- The decision follows a U.S. move last year to impose tariffs on Chinese-made solar cells and after China and the EU settled a dispute in July over the alleged dumping of Chinese-made solar panels in Europe.
- High tariffs on solar-grade polysilicon would have risked hurting Chinese solar manufacturers, which depend on imports of raw materials, by raising their costs.
- Three U.S. suppliers are exempt: U.S.-based MEMC Pasadena (SUNE -2.2%) and two U.S. subsidiaries of Norway's Renewable Energy.
- CSUN +1.4%, CSIQ +1.3%, YGE +0.8%, TSL +0.3%, STP -3%, FSLR +1.4%, SPWR +3.4%, JKS -1.6%, JASO -0.2%, SOL +1.2%.
Thursday, Sep 122013, 8:16 AM
Thursday, Sep 122013, 8:16 AM| 2 Comments
- Solar panel installations in the U.S. jumped 15% to 832 MW during Q2 as booming business for utility-scale systems helped offset weaker demand for residential and commercial projects, according to a report from GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association.
- The utility-scale solar market soared 42% Q/Q, but the report says utilities in California and other key states have slowed their procurement of power from new solar projects.
- The average installed price of solar systems fell to $3.05/watt from $3.36 in Q1 and $3.43 a year ago, but prices vary greatly state to state and project to project.
- ETFs: TAN +6.6% premarket; KWT.
- Related tickers: JASO, FSLR, JKS, TSL, SOL, STP, LDK, SPWR, CSIQ, YGE, CSUN, SCTY, RSOL, SUNE, HSOL.
Monday, Sep 92013, 1:20 PM
Monday, Sep 92013, 1:20 PM| 1 Comment
- With the Shanghai Composite having risen 3.4% overnight in response to news Chinese exports rose 7.2% Y/Y in August (up from 5.1% in July and easily topping expectations), it's not surprising many volatile Chinese Internet and solar names are adding to their large 2013 gains today.
- AutoNavi (AMAP +18.5%) is easily the biggest Chinese Internet standout. Other winners include YY (YY +8.2%), NQ Mobile (NQ +4.9%) and e-commerce plays Dangdang (DANG +9.5%), LightInTheBox (LITB +3.1%), and Vipshop (VIPS +3.5%).
- Solar standouts include Trina (TSL +4.9%), Daqo (DQ +12.5%), JA Solar (JASO +6.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +3.9%), Yingli (YGE +3.8%), LDK (LDK +3.2%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +2.5%).
- Chinese mobile chipmaker RDA Microelectronics (RDA +10.6%) is also having a very good day.
Wednesday, Sep 42013, 12:26 PM
Wednesday, Sep 42013, 12:26 PM| 1 Comment
- Recapping the solar industry's Q2 performance, JPMorgan says it's pleased with strong Chinese and Japanese demand, bottom-line improvements driven by cost cuts and stabilizing pricing, and a growing focus by solar companies on projects rather than module sales.
- The firm observes Japanese solar deployments are expected to soar to 6.9GW-9.4GW in 2013 from 1.8GW in 2012 (per Sharp), and that China wants to have 35GW of installed capacity by 2015. It also likes the margin improvements many solar firms delivered in Q2 (I, II, III).
- Winners include JA Solar (JASO +13.6%), Yingli (YGE +10.2%), Hanwha SolarOne (HSOL +13.7%), Daqo (DQ +8.7%), LDK Solar (LDK +7.4%), China Sunergy (CSUN +5.3%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +2.6%), and Trina (TSL +4.3%). Many of these names have already soared from last fall's lows.
- View all 3 replies
TFCAB:: Awesome; i dont follow that one; i will put it on the radar. thanks
Ocean Man:: I bought puts on it.