Jan. 7, 2014, 1:05 PM
- Solar stocks started 2014 with a bang, and are adding to their momentum today (TAN +4%) with the help of positive industry and company-specific news.
- The Chinese government, which last year set a 35GW 2015 cumulative installation target, is now promising additional support, and says it will draft guidelines for industry M&A. Consolidation with China's fragmented solar cell/module market could both lower overcapacity (already declining thanks to rising demand) and lead to further margin expansion.
- Yingli (YGE +8.7%) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7.4%), both of which saw huge 2013 gains, are today's biggest gainers. Yingli has announced it's forming a JV with state-owned China National Nuclear Corp. to create 500MW of utility-scale solar projects. Canadian has announced a deal to supply 25.3MW of modules for four North Carolina projects.
- Also: Hanwha (HSOL +4.6%) has signed an MOU to supply up to 50MW of modules to U.S. residential solar installer OneRoof Energy.
- Other gainers: FSLR +2.7% (hit by a Goldman downgrade yesterday). SUNE +4.4%. DQ +4.9%. CSUN +3.2%. JASO +5.5%. ENPH +6.8%. ASTI +3.8%. JKS +3%.
Jan. 2, 2014, 12:09 PM
- On the first trading day of 2014, solar stocks are picking up right where they left off in 2013. Today's gains come in spite of a general selloff in equities.
- A bullish Deutsche note could be helping the group: The firm's checks lead it to think cumulative Chinese solar installations will pass a 2014 government target of 12GW this year. Last month, Deutsche defended Chinese solar names in the face of concerns about a possible 4GW 2014 cap on local utility-scale installations.
- Yingli (YGE +14.2%) is headlining today's winners. The company has announced it's forming a JV with a unit of Datong Coal Mine to build solar power plants in the Chinese city of Shuozhou. Hanwha, which has announced a Belgian module supply deal, is also up sharply.
- Other big gainers: CSIQ +9.2%. FSLR +4.9%. SOL +7.3%. JASO +6.7%. JKS +6.2%. SCTY +6.1%. TSL +6.1%. LDK +4.6%. SUNE +3.1%. CSUN +7.8%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT +2.9%. TAN +4.4%.
Dec. 30, 2013, 12:56 PM
- Solar stocks aren't getting left out on a day that's seeing a number of heavily-shorted names shoot higher (see NQ Mobile and InvenSense). With one trading day left in the year, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.5%) is up 128% YTD.
- China Sunergy (CSUN +15.5%) is today's biggest winner: The company announced this morning it has completed the sale of a 5MW U.K. solar project to a local firm.
- Trina Solar and Real Goods Solar, each of which announced new solar project deals, are also posting solid gains. As is ReneSola (SOL +3%), which announced it has signed a memorandum of intent to sell 60MW worth of Chinese solar projects.
- Also rallying: DQ +8.2%. JASO +6.5%. SPWR +2.8%. HSOL +6.3%. CSIQ +4.6%. JKS +4%. YGE +6.3%. STP +2.3%. ENPH +4.9%.
Dec. 11, 2013, 1:28 PM
- JA Solar (JASO -3.9%) COO Jian Xie is set to "assume broader leadership" within the company, and become its president. CTO Yong Liu will take over Xie's current job. (PR)
- In addition, CFO Min Cao is being reassigned to the role of chief strategy officer. Replacing him is Herman Zhao, who was JA's CFO from 2006-2008 and has since been the CFO of two other companies.
Dec. 9, 2013, 2:50 PM
- The Chinese government, which has a 12GW 2014 solar installation target, wants to see 8GW of installations involve distributed solar systems (such as those installed on residential and commercial buildings), and just 4GW of higher-margin utility-scale deployments.
- Credit Suisse notes investors are concerned the 12GW target won't be attainable if utility-scale installations are capped at 4GW. It thinks Yingli (YGE -5.9%), Trina (TSL -7%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -5.3%) have the most to lose if such a cap is implemented.
- Nomura is less concerned, noting most companies it has talked to believe 4GW "will be more of a guideline rather than a firm cap." The firm adds China's solar policy discussion is "fluid," and that the government remains committed to supporting solar adoption.
- Notable solar decliners (in addition to the aforementioned companies): HSOL -12.1%. SPWR -5.6%. CSUN -5.5%. JASO -3.4%. DQ -2%.
- Last Friday: Solar stocks fall in spite of market rally
Dec. 6, 2013, 12:25 PM
- Even as markets rally in response to a favorable NFP report, solar stocks are giving back some of this year's gains. ReneSola (SOL -10.3%), which tumbled yesterday after positing Q3 results and announcing it's shuttering a polysilicon plant, is the biggest decliner.
- Credit Suisse has cut its ReneSola PT to $3 from $5, while reiterating an Underperform. The firm notes the plant shutdown removes 40% of ReneSola's polysilicon capacity, and undermines arguments the company will benefit from rising polysilicon prices in 2014/2015. It's also worried about ReneSola's "relatively low margins" and limited downstream (solar plant) exposure.
- One positive piece of industry news: A Japanese trade group estimates Japan's solar cell/module shipments rose 25% Q/Q and 231% Y/Y in Q3 to 2.075GW. Imports accounted for 58% of shipments, and rose 30% Q/Q and 540% Y/Y.
- Rising shipments to Japan have already lifted the sales and margins of many Chinese module suppliers. First Solar (FSLR -1.9%) announced its entry into the market last month.
- Notable solar decliners: YGE -6.7%. TSL -3.5%. CSIQ -2.7%. JKS -2.6%. LDK -2.1%. JKS -2.6%. JASO -2.2%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Nov. 26, 2013, 10:07 AM
- With JA Solar's (JASO -10.5%) shares having tripled from their April lows going into the company's Q3 report, investors aren't in a forgiving mood over its EPS miss, even though it's accompanied by a revenue beat and 500.2MW of cell/module shipments (beating guidance of 450MW-470MW).
- A 37% Q/Q increase in opex to $37.5M (blamed partly on a $7.5M accounts receivable provision) had much to do with the EPS miss.
- JA is guiding for Q4 cell/module shipments of 500MW-550MW, and has upped its full-year shipment guidance to 1.9GW-1.95GW.
- Like many peers, JA is seeing steadily rising gross margins. Q3 GM was 11.3%, up from 8.1% in Q2 and -5.9% a year ago.
- China accounted for 38.7% of shipments, other parts of Asia-Pac 39.3%. Europe's share dove to 9.3% from Q2's 19.7%, while the Americas rose to 10.7% from 7.9%. Module shipments to the U.S. more than tripled Q/Q. Chinese and Japanese demand are also said to be healthy.
- JA ended Q3 with $401.1M in cash/equivalents, and $628.1M in debt.
- Q3 results, PR
Nov. 26, 2013, 7:17 AM
Nov. 26, 2013, 12:05 AM
Nov. 25, 2013, 5:30 PM
Nov. 19, 2013, 2:41 PM
- After steadily rising over the last three weeks, 3D printing stocks are reversing course in dramatic fashion today in the absence of major news. Solar stocks, which have also seen plenty of good days lately, are also selling off hard.
- 3D printer makers 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -7.5%), ExOne (XONE -7.7%), and Voxeljet (VJET -14.1%) are all off sharply, as is custom parts maker Proto Labs ([[PRLB -4.8% - sometimes hyped as a 3D printing play).
- Trina (TSL -4.9%), which provided a big Q3 beat and guidance hike this morning, has turned negative after shooting higher in premarket trading. Other solar decliners: YGE -10.9%. FSLR -4.6%. SOL -6.4%. JASO -6.4%. CSUN -5.6%. JKS 5.7%. DQ -5.5%. SUNE -5.5%. CSIQ -5.3%. SPWR -7.1%.
Nov. 12, 2013, 8:59 AM
- Up strongly yesterday, ever-volatile solar stocks are giving back some of their gains in premarket trading today after Yingli (I, II) and Hanwha (I, II) provided Q3 results and full-year guidance that left investors wanting more following big 2013 run-ups.
- Notable decliners: TSL -3.9%. JKS -5.2%. JASO -3.4%. CSUN -3.3%. SCTY -1.3%. SUNE -2.5%.
- Also: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is down 2.4% in spite of announcing a 32MW module supply deal for a Chinese solar plant, and First Solar (FSLR) is down 0.7% in spite of announcing it has obtained power purchase agreements for a 40MW California power plant it's building.
Nov. 11, 2013, 3:26 PM
- Solar stocks are bouncing back strongly today following last Thursday's SolarCity-led selloff. Though there's no major news trigger for today's gains, industry sentiment has been increasingly positive thanks to good earnings news, optimism about 2014 demand, and signs government support remains healthy.
- China has lifted its 2014 solar installation target to 12GW from 10GW, albeit while keeping its 2015 cumulative installation target intact at 35GW. Meanwhile, Solarbuzz is predicting long-struggling Europe will stabilize in 1H14, and return to growth in 2H14. Germany and the U.K. are expected to account for half of regional demand.
- JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), which has announced a new 70MW module supply deal, is among today's big winners. Others: JKS +10.5%. FSLR +4.2%. SCTY +6.7%. TSL +7.9%. ENPH +5%. YGE +6.7%. CSUN +8.8%. STRI +7.3%.
Nov. 7, 2013, 2:22 PM
- With shares up over 5x YTD going into the company's Q3 report, SolarCity (SCTY -14%) investors are taking profits in the face of a Q3 beat and above-consensus guidance.
- Credit Suisse (Outperform, $75 PT) is defending SolarCity today, while praising the company's operating leverage and incremental retained value per watt (rose 35% Q/Q in Q3 to $1.9)1.
- Goldman (Neutral, $65 PT) also talks up SolarCity's value retention, as well as its declining operational costs/watt (fell to $0.59/watt from $0.80/watt in Q2). But it also cautions expectations were high, points out "no volume upside was provided" for 2013/2014 deployment targets, and that there's "limited clarity" for SolarCity's solar lease securitization efforts.
- On its CC (transcript), SolarCity mentioned it invested $200M+ in solar deployments in Q3, and financed another $86M. The company has been raising funds for its deployment efforts at a breakneck pace.
- Many solar peers are also off sharply on a rough day for tech momentum play. Thanks to good earnings news, the group rallied sharply both on Monday and last Friday. In addition to SolarCity, China Sunergy's poor guidance could also be playing a role.
- Solar decliners: FSLR -4.2%. SPWR -6.1%. SOL -5.1%. JKS -4.8%. YGE -4.7%. JASO -6.5%. DQ -10.2%. SPWR -6.1%. LDK -5.5%. SUNE -3.8%.
Nov. 4, 2013, 12:56 PM
- Positive Q3 guidance revisions from Canadian Solar (previous) and Daqo (DQ +11.2%) are fueling another massive rally in solar stocks, some of which jumped last Friday thanks to blowout Q3 numbers from First Solar (FSLR +4.6%).
- Canadian hiked the midpoint of its Q3 module shipment guidance range by more than 10%, and the midpoint of its gross margin guidance range by 800 bps. Daqo has upped its polysilicon shipment range to 1,200-1,275 MT from a prior 1,000 MT, albeit while slightly lowering its wafer shipment guidance to 6.5-6.6 MT from prior 6.8 MT (shipping delays are blamed).
- The guidance hikes follow a string of positive Q2 reports from Chinese solar firms in August, as companies saw both their sales and margins benefit from growing local demand, diminishing overcapacity, and strong shipments to the high-margin Japanese market. Credit Suisse recently predicted improving demand could lead excess Chinese supply to evaporate by late 2014 or 2015.
- Also: Suntech (STP +13.6%) has officially reached a deal to sell its large and bankrupt Wuxi, China unit to solar cell maker Shunfeng (previous), SunPower (SPWR +10.9%) has announced it's buying module cleaning robot developer Greenbiotics, and SolarCity (SCTY +16.4%) has announced (as part of its seemingly non-stop financing binge) it's selling $54.4M in solar asset-backed notes maturing in Dec. 2026.
- Today's winners, aside from the aforementioned companies: JKS +9.8%. JASO +9.2%. RSOL +8.3%. LDK +6.5%. HSOL +5.2%. YGE +7.4%. CSUN +6%. SOL +6.9%. SUNE +3.5%. TSL +9.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Oct. 28, 2013, 12:15 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is only down 0.1%, many 2013 Internet, solar, and enterprise software high-flyers are diving once more. Chinese names are well-represented in the group, as NQ Mobile continues crashing thanks to fraud allegations and Sohu plunges due to weak Q4 EPS guidance.
- The WSJ and NYT have each run pieces asking whether a new tech bubble is afoot, at least in certain hot sectors. "People are reaching for growth," says one fund manager quoted by the WSJ. Others argue the fact the high-flyers generally have substantial revenue, and are often profitable, makes the current situation different from the Dot.com bubble.
- Internet decliners: FB -3.4%. MELI -2.8%. GRPN -5%. ZNGA -2.7%. P -2.4%. DANG -7.6%. VIPS -7%. YY -4.8%. QIHU -5.6%. RENN -5.7%. SINA -2.4%. FUEL -4%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -12.4%. FSLR -4.8%. SOL -8.4%. YGE -8%. JASO -6.9%. GTAT -5.4%. SUNE -4.6%. SPWR -4.3%. SCTY -3.8%. STP -8.9%. TSL -13.2%.
- Enterprise decliners: CRM -3.8%. DATA -4.5%. MKTO -5.8%. WDAY -4%. DWRE -3.4%. VEEV -5.1%. IMPV -3.4%.
- Recent declines: I, II.
- Previous: Cashin sees mobile/cloud bubble
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