Mar. 14, 2014, 7:37 AM
- "The creaks and groans in the copper price reflect the sound of the tunnel supports giving way," writes SocGen professional bear Al Edwards. "Decoupling" is the "most dangerous word in finance," he says, and slumping metals prices isn't just about some temporary local issues in China. "Do not rely on decoupling. Do not rely on central bank liquidity. Do not reply on hope. Hope is a false friend in these markets."
- The price of copper has slid to about a 4-year low this week (though it's up 1% this morning), amid China's slowing economy and fears of a for-the-books credit bust-up.
- Copper ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
- Broad market ETFs: PRF, VV, SCHX, NY, JKD, FEX, EQL, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, FWDD, PXLC, ERW, ALTL, SYE
Mar. 12, 2014, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mar. 11, 2014, 12:02 PM
- A continued wave of morning selling has brought copper lower by 4.3% on the session to $2.95 per pound, the weakest level since the summer of 2010.
- Copper started the year at $3.40 and its swift decline this week comes amid horrid Chinese export numbers, a plunging price of iron ore, and chatter about defaults and banks calling in loans in China.
- JJC -3.1%
- Other copper ETFs: CPER, CUPM
- Copper producer ETFs: COPX, CU
Mar. 7, 2014, 2:34 PM
- Copper futures slumped to their biggest loss in more than two years as investors worried about slowing growth in China, which accounts for 40% of the world's copper demand.
- Traders were spooked by China's first default on a bond traded in the mainland, which comes amid broader fears about the impact of China's economic slowdown on demand for industrial metals.
- Copper prices have lost 9.2% YTD as signs of faltering growth in China have raised the outlook for a surplus.
- Top publicly traded producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX) -4.8%.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mar. 7, 2014, 8:58 AM
- A check of asset markets following what's currently being interpreted as a strong nonfarm payroll report (175K jobs added vs. 154K expected; UE rate up to 6.7%): Flat ahead of the number, stock index futures are up by 0.5%; gold is down 1.1%, silver down 3.2%, copper off 2.9%; the dollar is up a bit, but mostly against the loonie after a weak jobs number in Canada.
- DIA +0.5%, GLD -1%, SLV -2.9%, JJC -3%, UUP +0.15%
- Previously: Treasury yields fly higher after payroll report.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, DIA, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, UUP, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UDN, UGL, DGP, DOG, GLL, DXD, JJC, DZZ, UDOW, UGLD, SDOW, DSLV, DDM, DGL, DBS, GLDI, DGZ, DBV, AGOL, DGLD, SLVO, FORX, TBAR, UDNT, UUPT, USV, UBG, CPER, GLDE, GYEN, CUPM, GEUR, USDU, GGBP
Feb. 4, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Copper's posting a middling gain of 0.4% in afternoon action, but it's enough to break a nine-session losing streak - the longest going back to December 1995. No mystery - the selloff came thanks to global growth worries brought on by a mini-meltdown in emerging markets and weak numbers in the States. Today's gain comes as equity markets stabilize.
- At $3.20 per pound, the metal has fallen from about $3.40 at the start of the year, but remains within the $3-$3.40 range it's been in since April.
- Related ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Jan. 10, 2014, 8:58 AM
- Commodities have their tails in the air following the slow payroll number, with gold up 1% to 1,240 per ounce, silver up 2.2% to $20.80, copper gaining 1.2%, and crude oil ahead 1.7% to $93.21.
- With this morning's gain, gold is up more than 3% on the year.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, USO, IAU, AGQ, OIL, PHYS, UCO, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, SCO, GLL, JJC, DZZ, DBO, DTO, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, CRUD, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, USL, SLVO, DNO, TBAR, SZO, UWTI, USV, OILZ, UBG, CPER, DWTI, OLO, CUPM, OLEM, TWTI
Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM
- The WSJ shines a light onto "shadow warehouses," a hidden system of facilities that store tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc across the globe for banks, hedge funds and commodity merchants.
- The warehouses operate outside the London Metal Exchange's system, are unregulated, and don't provide details of their holdings. As a result, it's unclear how much metal is held in the shadow system. This lack of visibility could cause major price swings.
- The WSJ article follows allegations that warehousing companies have artificially boosted the price of metals, particularly aluminum.
- Companies that operate metals warehouses include Goldman Sachs (GS), Glencore Xstrata (GLCNF) and JPMorgan (JPM), although the latter is looking to sell its commodities unit.
- Relevant tickers include VALE, AA, AWC, KALU, MNSF, CENX, NOR, BHP, RIO, ACH.
- ETFs: DBC, JJC, DBB, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, CFD, JJN, JJT, BOM, RGRC, CPER, CTF, RJZ, GSC, LSC, GSP, JJU, DEE, BDD, BOS, JJM, DYY, DDP, DJCI, LD, CMD, BCM, CUPM, UCI, RGRI, UCD, UBM, FOIL, BDG, LEDD, CMDT, SBV, USMI, DPU, NINI, FTGC, CSCB, CSCR, HEVY
Dec. 3, 2013, 7:42 AM
- Very little "China upside" has been priced in, says Goldman analyst Noah Weisberger, noting Asian-focused funds are "significantly underweight" China. His team is forecasting a big 19% gain in Chinese equities traded in Hong Kong next year.
- Goldman is pairing its long-China call with a short on copper (JJC) due to "abundant supply and a lack of accelerating demand."
- The long/short idea is #4 in Goldman's list of top trade ideas for 2014. Previous ideas are here.
- Chinese ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, CYB, YINN, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, MCHI, YANG, PEK, CQQQ, XPP, QQQC, DSUM, YAO, CHXX, ASHR, CHII, CHXF, FXCH, ECNS, CHIE, YXI, CHIM, KWEB, KFYP, TCHI, FCA, CHLC, CHNA
Nov. 18, 2013, 11:40 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX) has agreed to pay nearly a third more in annual processing charges to China's leading copper smelters, likely increasing the pressure on rival BHP to raise its own offer on the charges, Reuters reports.
- China's top copper producer reportedly agreed with FCX to treatment and refining charges of $92/metric ton and $0.092/lb. for term copper concentrate shipments in 2014, setting the benchmark for the region, vs. $70/metric ton and $0.07/lb. charged by the smelters from Freeport this year.
- BHP, whose opening offer of $80 and $0.08 offer to Chinese smelters last week now looks low, is meeting the smelters for a second round of talks this week.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM.
Nov. 13, 2013, 10:05 AM
- Copper futures tumble to their lowest level in more than three months on concerns about the pace of Chinese economic growth; December futures fall more than $0.06 (-2%) to $3.17/lb., hitting their lowest level since late July.
- Copper and other base metals are suffering from rumors that the China will lower its 2014 growth target to 7%, says Commerzbank commodities strategist Eugen Weinberg.
- Meanwhile, China's eagerly awaited Third Plenum offered little support for markets, outlining only vague economic goals.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM.
- U.S.-traded copper miners: FCX -0.8%, SCCO -1.8%, TCK, GMO, SVBL, TLR.
Jul. 28, 2013, 2:27 PM
- BHP Billiton (BHP) is betting strong returns from its copper business, even though copper prices are unlikely to rise in the near term, CEO Andrew Mackenzie says in an interview today.
- The China shift to a consumer-led economy from a construction-led economy will reduce demand, but it might not be as bad as had been thought. "I don't like to comment on prices, but we have to prepare for a copper outlook around the current price, or perhaps a bit lower, that is around $3 per pound," he says.
- Copper ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
- U.S.-traded copper miners: SCCO, FCX, TCK, GMO, SVBL, TLR
Jul. 25, 2013, 7:55 PMGoldman Sachs makes the case for holding commodities as a strategic move. On Brent crude, the market should be well supplied in H2 as significant non-OPEC supply comes online and weak Chinese trade data signals relatively weak demand. Gold prices should decline to $1,050/oz. by year-end 2014 given a less accommodative Fed. Potash producers will maintain discipline and good margins despite falling crop prices. | 11 Comments
Jul. 11, 2013, 8:46 AM
Jun. 25, 2013, 7:22 AMMore on gold (previous): The sell side is bailing fast. Deutsche Bank cuts metals forecasts across the board, including gold and silver (SLV), citing the slowdown in China and the turn in the U.S. interest rate cycle. Reading the same newspapers, Credit Suisse follows suit. Having already slashed gold, Goldman moves on to copper (JJC), lowering both its near-term and longer-term outlooks on China growth worries. | 18 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 11:18 AMCopper futures rise (JJC) after Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.8%) declared force majeure at Indonesia's Grasberg mine, underscoring the potential for tighter supplies this year. Still, gains are muted as traders anticipate new copper supply to come on line as the massive Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia ramps up output to commercial levels. | Comment!
JJC vs. ETF Alternatives
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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