Feb. 4, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Copper's posting a middling gain of 0.4% in afternoon action, but it's enough to break a nine-session losing streak - the longest going back to December 1995. No mystery - the selloff came thanks to global growth worries brought on by a mini-meltdown in emerging markets and weak numbers in the States. Today's gain comes as equity markets stabilize.
- At $3.20 per pound, the metal has fallen from about $3.40 at the start of the year, but remains within the $3-$3.40 range it's been in since April.
- Related ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Jan. 10, 2014, 8:58 AM
- Commodities have their tails in the air following the slow payroll number, with gold up 1% to 1,240 per ounce, silver up 2.2% to $20.80, copper gaining 1.2%, and crude oil ahead 1.7% to $93.21.
- With this morning's gain, gold is up more than 3% on the year.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, USO, IAU, AGQ, OIL, PHYS, UCO, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, SCO, GLL, JJC, DZZ, DBO, DTO, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, CRUD, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, USL, SLVO, DNO, TBAR, SZO, UWTI, USV, OILZ, UBG, CPER, DWTI, OLO, CUPM, OLEM, TWTI
Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM
- The WSJ shines a light onto "shadow warehouses," a hidden system of facilities that store tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc across the globe for banks, hedge funds and commodity merchants.
- The warehouses operate outside the London Metal Exchange's system, are unregulated, and don't provide details of their holdings. As a result, it's unclear how much metal is held in the shadow system. This lack of visibility could cause major price swings.
- The WSJ article follows allegations that warehousing companies have artificially boosted the price of metals, particularly aluminum.
- Companies that operate metals warehouses include Goldman Sachs (GS), Glencore Xstrata (GLCNF) and JPMorgan (JPM), although the latter is looking to sell its commodities unit.
- Relevant tickers include VALE, AA, AWC, KALU, MNSF, CENX, NOR, BHP, RIO, ACH.
- ETFs: DBC, JJC, DBB, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, CFD, JJN, JJT, BOM, RGRC, CPER, CTF, RJZ, GSC, LSC, GSP, JJU, DEE, BDD, BOS, JJM, DYY, DDP, DJCI, LD, CMD, BCM, CUPM, UCI, RGRI, UCD, UBM, FOIL, BDG, LEDD, CMDT, SBV, USMI, DPU, NINI, FTGC, CSCB, CSCR, HEVY
Dec. 3, 2013, 7:42 AM
- Very little "China upside" has been priced in, says Goldman analyst Noah Weisberger, noting Asian-focused funds are "significantly underweight" China. His team is forecasting a big 19% gain in Chinese equities traded in Hong Kong next year.
- Goldman is pairing its long-China call with a short on copper (JJC) due to "abundant supply and a lack of accelerating demand."
- The long/short idea is #4 in Goldman's list of top trade ideas for 2014. Previous ideas are here.
- Chinese ETFs: FXI, PGJ, GXC, FXP, HAO, CYB, YINN, CNY, TAO, CHIQ, CHIX, MCHI, YANG, PEK, CQQQ, XPP, QQQC, DSUM, YAO, CHXX, ASHR, CHII, CHXF, FXCH, ECNS, CHIE, YXI, CHIM, KWEB, KFYP, TCHI, FCA, CHLC, CHNA
Nov. 18, 2013, 11:40 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX) has agreed to pay nearly a third more in annual processing charges to China's leading copper smelters, likely increasing the pressure on rival BHP to raise its own offer on the charges, Reuters reports.
- China's top copper producer reportedly agreed with FCX to treatment and refining charges of $92/metric ton and $0.092/lb. for term copper concentrate shipments in 2014, setting the benchmark for the region, vs. $70/metric ton and $0.07/lb. charged by the smelters from Freeport this year.
- BHP, whose opening offer of $80 and $0.08 offer to Chinese smelters last week now looks low, is meeting the smelters for a second round of talks this week.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM.
Nov. 13, 2013, 10:05 AM
- Copper futures tumble to their lowest level in more than three months on concerns about the pace of Chinese economic growth; December futures fall more than $0.06 (-2%) to $3.17/lb., hitting their lowest level since late July.
- Copper and other base metals are suffering from rumors that the China will lower its 2014 growth target to 7%, says Commerzbank commodities strategist Eugen Weinberg.
- Meanwhile, China's eagerly awaited Third Plenum offered little support for markets, outlining only vague economic goals.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM.
- U.S.-traded copper miners: FCX -0.8%, SCCO -1.8%, TCK, GMO, SVBL, TLR.
Jul. 28, 2013, 2:27 PM
- BHP Billiton (BHP) is betting strong returns from its copper business, even though copper prices are unlikely to rise in the near term, CEO Andrew Mackenzie says in an interview today.
- The China shift to a consumer-led economy from a construction-led economy will reduce demand, but it might not be as bad as had been thought. "I don't like to comment on prices, but we have to prepare for a copper outlook around the current price, or perhaps a bit lower, that is around $3 per pound," he says.
- Copper ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
- U.S.-traded copper miners: SCCO, FCX, TCK, GMO, SVBL, TLR
Jul. 25, 2013, 7:55 PMGoldman Sachs makes the case for holding commodities as a strategic move. On Brent crude, the market should be well supplied in H2 as significant non-OPEC supply comes online and weak Chinese trade data signals relatively weak demand. Gold prices should decline to $1,050/oz. by year-end 2014 given a less accommodative Fed. Potash producers will maintain discipline and good margins despite falling crop prices. | Jul. 25, 2013, 7:55 PM | 11 Comments
Jul. 11, 2013, 8:46 AM
Jun. 25, 2013, 7:22 AMMore on gold (previous): The sell side is bailing fast. Deutsche Bank cuts metals forecasts across the board, including gold and silver (SLV), citing the slowdown in China and the turn in the U.S. interest rate cycle. Reading the same newspapers, Credit Suisse follows suit. Having already slashed gold, Goldman moves on to copper (JJC), lowering both its near-term and longer-term outlooks on China growth worries. | Jun. 25, 2013, 7:22 AM | 18 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 11:18 AMCopper futures rise (JJC) after Freeport McMoRan (FCX +1.8%) declared force majeure at Indonesia's Grasberg mine, underscoring the potential for tighter supplies this year. Still, gains are muted as traders anticipate new copper supply to come on line as the massive Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia ramps up output to commercial levels. | Jun. 12, 2013, 11:18 AM | Comment!
Jun. 11, 2013, 8:24 AMRio Tinto (RIO) plans to start exporting copper from the $6.2B Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia on Friday, Reuters reports, marking the opening of a mine that will eventually make up one-third of the country's economy. For Rio, it is particularly important now as its Bingham Canyon mine in Utah was shut by a landslide in April and its 40%-owned Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been shut following an accident in May. | Jun. 11, 2013, 8:24 AM | Comment!
Jun. 4, 2013, 2:28 PMCopper rallies (JJC +1%) on expectations of tighter supplies, as the potential rises for an extended shutdown at Freeport McMoRan's (FCX -2.5%) Grasberg copper and gold mining operation in Indonesia. If FCX were to declare force majeure, the shutdown could remove 100K-150K metric tons of copper supply from the market, a sizable chunk out of estimates of 600K-800K metric tons. | Jun. 4, 2013, 2:28 PM | Comment!
Jun. 3, 2013, 8:05 AMBeijing returns to metals. Maybe taking advantage of tumbling prices, or maybe showing confidence about the future, China's State Reserves Bureau has purchased base metals on the international market for the first time since the global financial crisis. The agency bought about 30K tons of nickel (JJN) - about one-sixth of LME stockpiles - according to sources, and has been making inquiries about copper (JJC). Other ETFs of note: LD, JJT. | Jun. 3, 2013, 8:05 AM | 3 Comments
May 30, 2013, 3:42 PMLeaders of Indonesia's miners union say they will call on workers not to return to Freeport McMoRan's (FCX +2.3%) Grasberg complex until an investigation behind the tunnel collapse that killed 28 people is completed. The news means copper production could be sidelined for several more weeks, increasing pressure on an already tight market. | May 30, 2013, 3:42 PM | Comment!
May 28, 2013, 6:58 AMJPMorgan's commodities team slashes its price forecasts for most metals, lowering the 2013 estimate for gold to $1,595 from $1,745. The 2015 estimate is cut 5% to $1,650. Silver's 2013 outlook is cut to $27.89 from $30.01. Copper (JJC) to $3.50 to $3.64. GLD -0.1%, SLV -0.3% premarket. | May 28, 2013, 6:58 AM | 7 Comments
JJC vs. ETF Alternatives
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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