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JJG

iPath DJ-UBS Grains Total Return Sub-Index ETN

5/18/2013, 3:51 PM ET

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Friday, February 8, 3:40 PM Beans (SOYB -2.6%) tumble as stronger Brazilian production has the USDA upping its forecast for ending stockpiles by a greater-than-expected 1.1% to 60.1M tons. Estimated corn (CORN -0.5%) inventories are raised 5% to a 632M bushels, but it's not enough to send prices lower as the level remains the lowest in the U.S. since 1995. Comment! [Commodities]
Wednesday, January 30, 11:10 AM This just in, commodity prices are falling, writes technician Michael Kahn. The CRB index is lower now than when the Fed launched QE∞ in September, and down 18% over a roughly 2-year period. Though still in tight supply, the grains (JJG) are off 16% since late summer, and softs like coffee, sugar, and cocoa are in multi-month bear markets. 4 Comments [Commodities]
Friday, January 11, 12:13 PM The inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Thursday, January 3, 9:19 AM The grains continue a tough post-U.S. harvest run with news today of China cancelling another order - this one 11.6M bushels of American beans. In the meantime, better weather is improving prospects for South America's crops. Beans -1.1%, Corn -0.7%, Wheat -0.2%. Comment! [Commodities]
Tuesday, January 1, 12:40 PM Big winners among commodity ETFs in 2012 include tin (JJT +23.2%), grains (JJG +17.5%), and lead (LD +14.8%). Gold (GLD) gained just 6.6%, while sugar (SGG -14%) and coffee (JO -42.7%) were big losers. See full commodity ETF performance tables here. 1 Comment [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Friday, December 21, 2012, 11:59 AM Brazil’s government go-ahead for Petrobras (PBR -3.6%) to raise its gasoline prices in early 2013 likely will raise demand for domestically produced sugar-based ethanol, but effects also could reach U.S. shores. Ethanol output in the U.S. is expected fall ~10% next year, and a robust export market could give Brazilian mills even more incentive to produce ethanol instead of sugar. 4 Comments [Energy, Global & FX, On the Move]
Friday, October 19, 2012, 7:27 AM Wheat is catching a bid, the December contract +1.7% to $8.83/bushel on chatter the Ukraine is set to ban exports beginning Nov. 15. "Window dressing," says Tregg Cronin. "The market (is) already keeping them out of exports." Corn +1%, Beans +0.6%. Comment! [Commodities]
Thursday, October 11, 2012, 9:16 AM Grains soar as the USDA lowers its estimate of corn ending stocks to 619M bushels from 733M in September. The cut comes even as it raises its forecast of harvested acres to 360K. What happens, asks Arlan Suderman, if the USDA is forced to cut harvested acres in its next report? Yikes. Corn +4%, Beans +2.1%, Wheat +1.5%. 2 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, September 28, 2012, 8:56 AM Corn soars 3% as the USDA announces stocks at just 988M bushels, the low end of the expected range. Prior to the report, corn had tumbled about $1/bushel over the past month. Wheat stocks also came in low, suggesting greater-than-expected feed use for both grains. Bean stocks beat expectations after the USDA "finds" another 38M bushels from last year's crop. Wheat +2%, Beans flat. 1 Comment [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, September 21, 2012, 5:41 AM Russian Economy Minister Andrei Belousov warns that the country may restrict grain exports - as it did in 2010 - if domestic prices increase too sharply. The government had previously said it wouldn't limit exports despite a drought that will cause output to fall to an estimated 72M-73M metric tons from a record 94.2M tons last year. Comment! [Global & FX, Top Stories, Commodities]
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, 9:15 AM More from the USDA: Soybeans gain +0.8% as the expected crop is cut 2% to 2.638B bushels vs. trade estimates of a 1% reduction. Ending stocks, however, remain at 115M bushels as the USDA cuts exports 55M bushels to 1.055B. Without the export reduction, ending stocks would have fallen to the frighteningly low level of 60M bushels. (full report, .pdf) 1 Comment [Commodities]
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, 8:51 AM Corn tumbles 2% as the USDA lowers its expected crop yield and harvest only marginally from last month's estimates. Also lowered were expected exports - to 1.25B bushels from the already low figure of 1.3B. As a result, new crop ending stocks are now estimated at 733M bushels, up from 650M. 1 Comment [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, September 7, 2012, 7:14 AM China's feed demand needs to be met by imports no matter what the price," says FCStone's Nathan Broders. With the drought no longer driving corn prices, it's now about demand, and China's appetite is going nowhere. Rabobank's Daron Hoffman believes the USDA's estimate of China's corn crop is too optimistic, and therefore its view on Chinese imports too light. Comment! [Commodities]
Tuesday, September 4, 2012, 1:08 PM Long corn? If you bought the December crop 7 weeks ago you're even, notes an analyst. This despite falling crop ratings, the USDA cutting its harvest numbers, and numerous private tours confirming the poor state of the crop. Always take caution with a bull market that's stopped reacting to bullish news. 1 Comment [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Friday, August 24, 2012, 3:29 PM Pro Farmer estimates following this week's crop tour have corn yield at 120.25 bu/acre vs. the USDA estimate of 123.4. Beans 34.8 bu/acre vs. USDA at 36.1 ("The crop from Ohio to Nebraska needs a drink right now to realize these yield estimates"). Iowa (nation's largest producer): "Early start to the growing season turned into a mid-season nightmare for corn trying to pollinate." Market reaction will have to wait until Sunday night. 5 Comments [Commodities]
Tuesday, August 21, 2012, 4:34 PM As panic hits the pits, Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana makes a contrarian call, arguing it's a good time to cover bullish grain bets. The weather is improving, he says, and low yields are priced in. "There seem to be fewer catalysts for price appreciation." Yet as Commerzbank notes, it's too late in the season for better weather to help the corn crop. 7 Comments [Commodities]

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