Mar. 10, 2014, 12:12 PM
- World corn stocks of 158.47MMT is higher than last month's estimate of 157.3 and trade expectations of 156.27. Domestic ending stocks, however, are now placed at 1.456B bushels vs. 1.481 last month and trade expectations of 1.488.
- Domestic bean ending stocks of 145M bushels is down from 150 last month, but ahead of trade expectations for 141. World stocks of 70.64MMT vs. 73.01 previously and forecasts for 71.46.
- Domestic wheat ending stocks of 558M bushels compares to 558M last month and 570M forecast.
- Markets are reading the news as bearish, with corn off a nickel, beans down $0.25, and wheat off $0.02
- CORN -0.25%, SOYB -0.75%, WEAT -1.2%
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU, WEET
Feb. 6, 2014, 2:56 PM
- Oat futures continue to rise as Canada's railroad system has ongoing issues keeping up with the demand for grain shipments.
- The March contract is at its highest level since July of 2008.
- Companies that make cereal, energy bars, and certain snack products could see escalated input costs in Q1 and Q2.
- On watch: GIS, PEP, K, POST, KRFT, FLO, NSRGY
- Related ETF: JJG
Jan. 10, 2014, 12:25 PM
- Corn (CORN +2.6%) moves sharply higher after the latest USDA projection has corn ending stocks at just 1.631B bushels vs. trade expectations for 1.861B. The agency pegs production at 13.93B bushels - few had expected this number to come in below 14B.
- The wheat (WEAT -4.2%) numbers are more bearish however, with ending stocks of 608M bushels vs. expectations of 557M. Winter wheat seedings, though, are less than expected - 41.892M acres vs. 43.501M.
- Soybean (SOYB +0.1%) ending stocks of 150B bushels are about inline with expectations.
- Related ETFs: JJG, GRU
Oct. 5, 2013, 8:25 AM
- The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
- Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
- Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
- ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Sep. 30, 2013, 3:49 PM
- Corn (CORN -2.4%) and Soybeans (SOYB -3.2%) tumble - with corn hitting a 3-year low - after the USDA reports estimated corn stocks of 824M bushels, off 17% from a year ago, but far higher than trade estimates for 687M. Bean stocks are estimated at 141M bushels, also off 17% from a year ago, but 13% above estimates. Stocks still remain low, but these are old crop numbers, and forecasters are looking forward to a big crop this fall.
- Wheat (WEAT -2.7%) stocks of 1.85B bushels were slightly below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected feed usage and export demand were behind the big corn number - high prices had pig farmers substituting corn for wheat.
- Relevant grain ETFs: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA, JJG, GRU.
Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:05 AM
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:26 PM
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PMCorn (CORN -3.9%) crumbles after the USDA estimates farmers planted 97.379M acres - the most since 1936 and far ahead of estimates for just 95.431M acres. The number of acres to be harvested, however, fell to 89.135M from 89.5M projected 2 weeks ago, and stocks of 2.764B bushels are below expectations of 2.845B. Bean (SOYB -0.5%) acreage is estimated at about an inline 77.28M acres - the most ever. DBA -1%. | Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PM | 10 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PMCorn (CORN -1.8%) gives up early gains and turns sharply lower after the USDA estimates 2013/14 ending stocks of 151.8M tons, above the trade estimate of 149.6M. The USDA cut its yield projection by 1.5 bushels to 156.5 bushels/acre, but lower feed usage and no reduction in planted acreage (despite spring delays) has stocks higher. Tyson (TSN +0.9%) and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC +1.9%) cheer the news. The data was bearish for beans (SOYB -1.8%) as well. Grains ETF (JJG -1.3%). | Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PM | Comment!
Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PMBeans (SOYB -2.6%) tumble as stronger Brazilian production has the USDA upping its forecast for ending stockpiles by a greater-than-expected 1.1% to 60.1M tons. Estimated corn (CORN -0.5%) inventories are raised 5% to a 632M bushels, but it's not enough to send prices lower as the level remains the lowest in the U.S. since 1995. | Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PM | Comment!
Jan. 30, 2013, 11:10 AMThis just in, commodity prices are falling, writes technician Michael Kahn. The CRB index is lower now than when the Fed launched QE∞ in September, and down 18% over a roughly 2-year period. Though still in tight supply, the grains (JJG) are off 16% since late summer, and softs like coffee, sugar, and cocoa are in multi-month bear markets. | Jan. 30, 2013, 11:10 AM | 4 Comments
Jan. 11, 2013, 12:13 PMThe inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. | Jan. 11, 2013, 12:13 PM | Comment!
Jan. 3, 2013, 9:19 AM
Jan. 1, 2013, 12:40 PM
Dec. 21, 2012, 11:59 AMBrazil’s government go-ahead for Petrobras (PBR -3.6%) to raise its gasoline prices in early 2013 likely will raise demand for domestically produced sugar-based ethanol, but effects also could reach U.S. shores. Ethanol output in the U.S. is expected fall ~10% next year, and a robust export market could give Brazilian mills even more incentive to produce ethanol instead of sugar. | Dec. 21, 2012, 11:59 AM | 4 Comments
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The Dow Jones-UBS Grains Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is currently composed of three futures contracts on grains traded on U.S. exchanges.
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