iPath DJ-AIG Industrial Metals Total Return Sub-Index (JJM)

All Comments on JJM

  • commenter
    spamlet
    Aug 13 07:29 AM
    Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
    Would anyone recommend a livestock ETF or ETN?
    Taxation as US investor...any opinions? (reading prospectus)
    Do these have enough liquidity...I cannot seem to locate avg. volume?
    Looking at:
    CATL, ETFS Live Cattle...trades on London
    COW, iPath Livestock     Reply
  • commenter
    dieuwer
    Aug 08 10:20 PM
    Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
    I'm missing RJI, RJN, and RJZ. Reply
  • commenter
    silveraxis
    Aug 05 01:17 PM
    My Website
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    buyitcheap, many metals have already had a "downward gap" of 60% or more from their peaks--lead, zinc, nickel, uranium. Platinum, palladium and silver are down about 25-40% and may not have much more to go. Gold and copper are down only around 15% each. Gold will catch a crisis bid, copper will not. Copper, along with oil, is a bellwhether for the commodity sector and has been historically very sensitive to shifting market sentiment. Copper is a great short bet even if it has the best fundamentals out of all the metals.

    As for ags, where have you been? Corn, wheat, soybeans, rice, OJ, sugar and many others are already down 30-40% and may be on their way to 60% losses before it is all over. The exception seems to be meats which never went up several hundred percent and therefore they probably don't have as much downside.

    One way to play an ag correction is put options on DBA, the PowerShares Ag ETF. For some reason, these ETF options seem to have both pretty good volume and fair pricing. For example, you can buy the Jan 09 33 puts for $200. With a DBA target of 26, that's a 250% return. As a side bet in case ags are set to romp once again, the Jan 09 40 call will set you back $100. A recovery to the March and July double tops should get you about a 200% return, more than covering the cost of the put.     Reply
  • commenter
    silveraxis
    Aug 05 12:30 PM
    My Website
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    To those who think shorting copper is moronic or that it will never again go to $1.75, tell that to the longs in zinc, lead and nickel, each of which have already crashed 60% or more from their highs. Yeah, but copper is different, even unique. Riiiighttttttttt... 40% of global copper demand is related to construction. Let's see if speculators can pick up that slack in the months ahead. Or what about the single trader who holds most of the LME warrants? How long will he/she continue to do so?

    Already the copper miners have made substantial declines from their highs--some even trading near 52 week lows. They should not be so weak if copper prices are going to stay above $3/lb. since that still gives them excellent operating margins.

    The way I'm playing the potential decline in copper is with COMEX put options. Hard to buy and not a lot of volume, but relatively cheap and great upside if copper does come down to join the other base metals in the reality camp. I'm also long silver so I'm not worried if a crash in copper does not pan out--I've got both angles covered.     Reply
  • commenter
    buyitcheap
    Aug 05 09:06 AM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    Would a downward gap in metals drag all other commodities with it (agricultural commodities specifically)? A Materials/base metals short sounds reasonable (though not after an 4% up day like yesterday).

    With respect to financials, what of this proverbial "other shoe" of CDOs that's expected to drop? Overhyped as a way to buy banks at a lower price?

    Thoughts and speculations welcome     Reply
  • commenter
    surgcare
    Aug 02 09:05 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    Copper is essential in building infrastructure . Maybe their just hording this stuff in preperation to massive building projects .Copper is not the only commodity the chinese are trying to hoard . Their also trying to goble up energy sources as well .CEO is trying to buy up oil @gas companies all over the world .I would not consider these people as stupid .While america stands around claiming that the energy and commodity bubble has popped , the chinese are going around quietly grabing all the commodities then can at cheaper prices because ,as I said , americans think the commodity bubble has popped and therefore prices will come down ,so the chinese can take advantage of america's stupidity . Reply
  • commenter
    jgarzik
    Aug 01 07:31 PM
    My Website
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    I have a similar comment to 2008traveler:

    What are the source(s) of the container ship and export data?

    Certainly, statement in past ~24 hours by Hu Jintao support the statement that the Politburo is worried more about growth than inflation.

    Finally, small editorial note, I would bold "if I'm right..." rather than "I'm right..." as it is more honest in my opinion.     Reply
  • commenter
    Sean Maher
    Jul 31 04:15 AM
    My Website
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    To address some of the points raised above:
    1. If you knew anything of the geography and economy of China, you would realise that the earthquake had minimal effect on manufactured exports or the relevant infrsstructure; it affected agriculture and coal production predominantly. Exports are slowing rapidly...
    2. Who cares what China is doing in the Congo, it's irrelevant; I'm describing an illegal speculative scheme that the authorities are unaware of, although some corrupt officials are undoubtedly involved.
    3. Try to keep emotion out of your investment decisions, my previous calls speak for themselves. It's flattering to think I could single handedly crash the copper market, but I'm simply taking an informed view of a clear anomaly. Everyone in the copper market suspects something is up, but won't talk publicly about it...     Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Jul 30 10:44 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    Agreed. Reply
  • commenter
    born skeptic
    Jul 30 08:34 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    I am starting to wonder if this entire website was created by investors for the purpose of manipulating equities, commodities, etc. Why are there no disclaimers? Mr. Maher do you think that the massive earthquake which killed close to 90 thousand, left 4.8 million homeless, and affected 15 million Chinese in the immediate area on May 12th, 2008 might have a slight effect on trade in June of 2008? You know, the same earthquake that damaged many rail lines and even affected the price of copper. These are the same rail lines that probably ship items to the shipping containers that you mention in your article. Anyone shorting copper is a moron. Reply
  • commenter
    DaveW
    Jul 30 06:19 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    A: It appears China is most interested in Congo's cobalt ore for battery production.

    news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/bu...     Reply
  • commenter
    BACK22000
    Jul 30 04:44 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    If China has so much excess copper why are they working on joint venture to open a mega mine in the Congo? Reply
  • commenter
    DaveW
    Jul 30 01:47 PM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    As a curiosity, how would you invest this theory? There is a new powershares base metal double short ETF (BOM), any better way to short copper for the individual investor? Copper has been trending down and with a global contraction ensuing it may drop one way or the other... Thank you in advance for a reply.
    -DW     Reply
  • commenter
    Aalan
    Jul 30 11:26 AM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    A far-reaching conclusion drawn on very few data points. You need more than suspicion to predict a crisis of the proportion that you suggest.
    China is large; it has problems, it has opportunities.
     Reply
  • commenter
    Alpha 26
    Jul 30 11:23 AM
    China & Copper: Prepare for Crisis [view article]
    I'm neutral on copper, yet find the thesis of this article silly. Even if there are secret stockpiles of copper in China, perhaps they are simply following the Korean model. Korea, last month, ordered that all metal reserves be tripled as a matter of national security.
    Just six motnhs ago, China fronted the government of the Congo $12BILLION for access to the country's copper resources. Doubt they would pay such a sum to such an unstable source if they had all the copper they needed.
    While I think copper could easily fall back to $3, Chinese demand will support the long-term trend. If, as you suggest, China must revalue its currency then copper goes through $4 in a week...stronger currency = higher demand.
    Good luck     Reply
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