Tue, Feb. 3, 10:24 AM
- Copper prices are on track for their biggest gains since September on speculation that China would use stimulus measures to jump-start its economy and boost demand for the metal.
- Rising oil prices and Chinese stimulus speculation “have changed the focus to the upside and the short-covering has done the rest,” says Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, adding that “energy is such a big and important part of the commodity sector, and the somewhat improved sentiment there also helps other” raw materials; aluminum and nickel also are rising to multi-week highs.
- "We’re in this perverse world where bad news is good news,” says BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs, and "a lot of people are thinking China’s going to join the rest of the world and lower interest rates or [offer] some kind of monetary response."
- Raw materials companies are off to a strong start today: FCX +5.8%, BHP +3.9%, RIO +2.4%, VALE +3.9%, SCCO +3.4%.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, JJT, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, LD, BDD, JJM, FOIL, NINI, CUPM
Wed, Jan. 28, 2:57 PM
- “Despite the large declines in commodity prices, we see risks as still skewed to the downside over the near-term,” says Goldman Sachs.
- Of course, much of the price decline has to do with oil, and Goldman doesn't expect a whole lot more damage as prices have gotten low enough for investors to begin buying excess supplies and putting them in storage. While this may put a floor under the price, says Goldman, it also means prices are likely to stay lower for longer.
- Meanwhile, there's China, and slowing growth there means copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) prices have further to fall. Some metals to consider going long? Palladium (NYSEARCA:PALL), nickel (JJN, NINI), and zinc.
- ETFs: DJP, GSG, RJI, GSC, GSP, DJCI, CMD, UCD
Fri, Jan. 23, 8:21 AM
- "The primary reason for the changes to our forecasts is cost deflation," says the team, noting "actual and anticipated U.S. dollar strength, cheaper energy and other input costs and our expectation of an improvement in mining productivity."
- The bank cut its expectations for metals and mined raw materials over the next three years by between 10 and 20 percent.
- Bearish on copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) even after a 20% decline over the last year, Goldman cuts its forecast for this year to $5,542 per metric ton from $6,400.
- Facing a sustained period of oversupply, iron ore is now seen averaging $66 per ton vs. $80 previously. Gold's forecast is trimmed to $1,089 per ounce from $1,200.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, JJT, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, LD, BDD, JJM, FOIL, NINI, CUPM, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Sep. 22, 2014, 2:58 PM
- Commodity prices as measured by the Total Return Bloomberg Commodities Index reaches new five-year lows, hit by a strengthening dollar, the prospect of a record grain harvest in the U.S. and concerns over weakening economic growth in China.
- The index has dropped more than 12% since the end of June amid falling prices for commodities such as crude oil, soybeans and gold.
- Even industrial metals, one of this year’s best performers in commodities, have started to come under pressure; nickel has dropped 10% since the end of June, copper prices are at three-month lows, and iron ore trades below $80/ton for the first time since 2009.
- ETFs: USO, AGQ, OIL, DBA, CORN, USLV, UCO, ZSL, UGL, SCO, DGP, GLL, JJC, RJA, JJG, UGLD, BNO, WEAT, DZZ, DTO, SOYB, DBO, DSLV, DGL, CRUD, DBS, DAG, DGZ, JJA, DGLD, USL, GRU, DBE, UWTI, JJN, DNO, DWTI, RJN, USV, RGRA, AGA, UBG, AGF, CPER, SZO, BAR, FUD, USAG, OLO, UAG, WEET, DIRT, JJE, BARS, TAGS, NINI, CUPM, ONG, RGRE, ADZ, OLEM, UBN
Aug. 11, 2014, 6:58 AM
- Indonesian officials say there are no plans to withdraw the seven-month old ban on exports of unprocessed nickel ore and bauxite.
- The country was the world's top exporter of nickel ore and a major bauxite producer until this past January, when the ban was issued in order to force miners to build smelters.
- Last month, the government allowed several firms producing partially processed minerals such as copper concentrate to resume exports, although Indonesia's chief economic minister Chairul Tanjung says the same rationale does not apply to unprocessed exports of nickel ore and bauxite.
- "Nickel is different because if you are smelting in Indonesia the added value is much higher than copper," says Tanjung. "Because of that it's a separate issue."
- ETFs: IDX, JJC, EIDO, COPX, CU, IDXJ, JJN, CPER, NINI, CUPM
May 8, 2014, 9:46 AM
- Nickel prices reach two-year highs after New Caledonia's government ordered Vale (VALE -0.4%) to suspend activity after a spill at a local site.
- Nickel surged 41% in London trading this year after leading global miner Indonesia barred exports of raw ores in January.
- With the nickel market already tightening on Indonesia and possible sanctions against Russia, the news adds to the general sense that the market is facing a supply shortage over the coming months, analysts say.
- ETFs: JJN, NINI
Apr. 29, 2014, 7:15 PM
- U.S. government forecasters predict a more than 65% chance for an El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of the year, a development that threatens to drive up prices for food and other staples.
- El Niño has a reputation for triggering sharp run-ups for prices in markets as diverse as nickel, coffee and soybeans, and commodities investors, traders and analysts are bracing for impact at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
- Global food prices - which at the start of 2014 were expected to be largely flat this year - could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Niño occurs, says World Bank economist James Baffes.
- But Société Générale analysts say it is miners, not farmers, who have the most to worry about; since 1991, nickel prices rose the most (13.9%) during El Niño years among commodities the bank tracks.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, DBC, JO, JJC, RJA, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, DJP, SGG, DBB, COW, NIB, GSG, RJI, CAFE, BAL, GCC, DAG, USCI, JJA, GRU, CHOC, CANE, JJN, RGRA, AGA, JJT, RGRC, CPER, AGF, GSP, BOM, RJZ, JJU, GSC, LSC, FUD, DJCI, USAG, BOS, SGAR, JJM, DEE, BDD, UCI, LD, WEET, UAG, DYY, DIRT, BCM, CMD, DDP, NINI, JJS, CTNN, TAGS, UBC, CUPM, FOIL, UCD, ADZ, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, CMDT, BDG, SBV, USMI, DPU, LSTK, CSCB, GRWN, HEVY, CSCR
Dec. 27, 2013, 4:29 AM
- The WSJ shines a light onto "shadow warehouses," a hidden system of facilities that store tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc across the globe for banks, hedge funds and commodity merchants.
- The warehouses operate outside the London Metal Exchange's system, are unregulated, and don't provide details of their holdings. As a result, it's unclear how much metal is held in the shadow system. This lack of visibility could cause major price swings.
- The WSJ article follows allegations that warehousing companies have artificially boosted the price of metals, particularly aluminum.
- Companies that operate metals warehouses include Goldman Sachs (GS), Glencore Xstrata (GLCNF) and JPMorgan (JPM), although the latter is looking to sell its commodities unit.
- Relevant tickers include VALE, AA, AWC, KALU, MNSF, CENX, NOR, BHP, RIO, ACH.
- ETFs: DBC, JJC, DBB, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, CFD, JJN, JJT, BOM, RGRC, CPER, CTF, RJZ, GSC, LSC, GSP, JJU, DEE, BDD, BOS, JJM, DYY, DDP, DJCI, LD, CMD, BCM, CUPM, UCI, RGRI, UCD, UBM, FOIL, BDG, LEDD, CMDT, SBV, USMI, DPU, NINI, FTGC, CSCB, CSCR, HEVY
Jun. 3, 2013, 8:05 AMBeijing returns to metals. Maybe taking advantage of tumbling prices, or maybe showing confidence about the future, China's State Reserves Bureau has purchased base metals on the international market for the first time since the global financial crisis. The agency bought about 30K tons of nickel (JJN) - about one-sixth of LME stockpiles - according to sources, and has been making inquiries about copper (JJC). Other ETFs of note: LD, JJT. | 3 Comments
Nov. 16, 2012, 9:32 AMIndustrial metals prices are set to rally into the middle of 2013, says Westpac's Justin Smirk, who has the hottest hand in forecasting of late. He's keeping it simple: Easy money in the U.S. and Europe will combine with a rebounding Chinese economy. Copper, zinc, nickel, and aluminum are all headed higher. | Comment!
Feb. 1, 2012, 3:42 PMIndustrial metals enjoyed January's risk rally, with the basket of futures trading on the LME rising 10.9%, led by tin (JJT), up 26.5%. Looking to sink below $3/lb. 3-4 months ago, copper (JJC) has rallied all the way back to $3.84, and resurfaced bullish talk that there's just not enough of the metal being mined. | 1 Comment
Sep. 23, 2011, 1:12 PM
Aug. 8, 2011, 1:11 PMCommodity prices get slammed as economic fears intensify with some metals breaking through what is seen as important technical levels. Any current projections for commodity prices now need to be wadded up and be given a fresh macro look. Leading the downward spiral: Steel SLZ -7.4%, Copper JJC -7%, Tin JJT -6%. | Comment!
Jul. 5, 2011, 11:43 AMGoldman, JPMorgan and other securities firms are snapping up warehouse operators to take advantage of the big profit opportunities in holding metals. Warehousers collect a holding fee and can charge a premium on large corporate orders, but critics worry firms will exploit their trading knowledge. | 9 Comments
Jun. 13, 2011, 11:30 AMThere's one commodity we have plenty of: nickel, reversing its rally on the biggest glut in four years. Prices could drop 12% to $20K/ton by year's end, and $15K is "entirely possible." Norilsk Nickel (NILSY.PK -0.9%) says that means its profits will be little changed this year. ETF: JJN -1.7%. | Comment!
Feb. 22, 2011, 11:21 AM
JJN vs. ETF Alternatives
The Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity—nickel (currently the Primary Nickel futures contract traded on the London Metal Exchange).
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