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Wednesday, May 15, 11:38 AM Agricultural commodity prices (DBA) could fall a big 13% over the next year, says Goldman, predicting bumper crops across the globe. With weak demand and a record South American harvest (CORN, SOYB, WEAT) already in the books, it would require a major weather shock in the U.S. to keep prices near current levels. Earlier: Deere tumbles as poor weather slows U.S. planting progress. Comment! [Commodities]
Thursday, April 25, 3:19 PM The flow of key farm products (DBA) to the world from North and South America, highlighted by congestion at Brazilian ports and limited selling of crops by U.S. farmers, will keep global grain supplies tight despite expectations for big harvests later this year, Bunge (BG +6.5%) says after its Q1 report showed a 16% jump in agribusiness sales to $10.77B. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Monday, April 8, 10:22 AM Speculators exited long commodity positions last week at the fastest pace since 2008, according to the CFTC. Of particular note is the quickest decline in agricultural holdings (DBA) ever, led by an exiting of corn (CORN) positions as the price dropped about $1/bushel. Comment! [Commodities]
Thursday, February 14, 10:28 AM Agricultural commodities continue an underreported slide, with J.C. Parets noting corn is down for the 10th consecutive session. Earlier this week, the USDA estimated farm income in 2013 will be the highest in 40 years thanks to high prices. A weak harvest has little impact thanks to the use of crop-insurance programs. DBA -5.2%, CORN -4.4% YTD. 2 Comments [Commodities]
Friday, January 11, 12:13 PM The inaugural midday release of the USDA's January crop report doesn't disappoint, with corn reversing early losses and now sharply green as Dec. 1 stocks come in at 8.03B bushels vs. expectations of 8.21B. Ending stocks are estimated at a slim 602M bushels vs. expectations of 667M. Beans are down after production came in higher than expected. Wheat jumps on lower-than-anticipated planted acres. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Thursday, January 3, 9:19 AM The grains continue a tough post-U.S. harvest run with news today of China cancelling another order - this one 11.6M bushels of American beans. In the meantime, better weather is improving prospects for South America's crops. Beans -1.1%, Corn -0.7%, Wheat -0.2%. Comment! [Commodities]
Friday, December 21, 2012, 11:59 AM Brazil’s government go-ahead for Petrobras (PBR -3.6%) to raise its gasoline prices in early 2013 likely will raise demand for domestically produced sugar-based ethanol, but effects also could reach U.S. shores. Ethanol output in the U.S. is expected fall ~10% next year, and a robust export market could give Brazilian mills even more incentive to produce ethanol instead of sugar. 4 Comments [Energy, Global & FX, On the Move]
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 5:57 PM Phosphorus: The finite supply of it is why Jeremy Grantham predicts a grim future for much of the world's population. As production of the critical ingredient for fertilizer drops, so will crop yields, which will threaten the ability to feed the world's population. Grantham thinks the finite supply of fertilizer and limits of crop yields already are starting to affect food prices. 6 Comments [Commodities, Global & FX]
Monday, November 12, 2012, 12:47 PM The grains get a downgrade from Goldman following Friday's USDA report raising harvest estimates. Acknowledging continued tight supplies of corn and wheat, Goldman says "risks of critically tight soybean inventories continue to fade quickly." The grains are off sharply today: CORN -3.1%, SOYB -2.8%, WEAT -1.6%. Comment! [Commodities]
Friday, November 9, 2012, 7:04 AM Corn could move up to the unheard level of $9-$10/bushel in 2013, says Morgan Stanley's Hussein Allidina. A few weak export numbers from the U.S. has left the market complacent, he says, but supplies remain super-thin and current prices aren't high enough to ensure there will be corn around until the next crop. CORN -7.9% over the last 90 days. 1 Comment [Commodities]
Thursday, October 25, 2012, 11:04 AM Commodity investors will have interest in a comparison of the Rogers Commodity ETN (RJA) vs. the much more popular DB Agriculture ETF (DBA). RJA offers diversity, investing over a far wider range of contracts than DBA, which has 72% of its assets in just its top 6 holdings. Performance: Rogers dominates by 1400 basis points over 3 years, but DBA by about 700 basis points over 5 years. Comment! [Commodities, Quick Ideas]
Friday, October 19, 2012, 7:27 AM Wheat is catching a bid, the December contract +1.7% to $8.83/bushel on chatter the Ukraine is set to ban exports beginning Nov. 15. "Window dressing," says Tregg Cronin. "The market (is) already keeping them out of exports." Corn +1%, Beans +0.6%. Comment! [Commodities]
Thursday, October 11, 2012, 9:16 AM Grains soar as the USDA lowers its estimate of corn ending stocks to 619M bushels from 733M in September. The cut comes even as it raises its forecast of harvested acres to 360K. What happens, asks Arlan Suderman, if the USDA is forced to cut harvested acres in its next report? Yikes. Corn +4%, Beans +2.1%, Wheat +1.5%. 2 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, September 28, 2012, 8:56 AM Corn soars 3% as the USDA announces stocks at just 988M bushels, the low end of the expected range. Prior to the report, corn had tumbled about $1/bushel over the past month. Wheat stocks also came in low, suggesting greater-than-expected feed use for both grains. Bean stocks beat expectations after the USDA "finds" another 38M bushels from last year's crop. Wheat +2%, Beans flat. 1 Comment [Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 2:56 PM Interesting action in the commodity ETF sector shows a heavy hitter swapping out of $60M worth of the PowerShares Agriculture Fund (DBA) and into the Oil Fund (DBO) this morning. Is a big outfit booking profits on a summer rally in agriculture to pick up recently pummeled oil? It's also another example of liquid ETFs becoming a preferred playground for hedge funds and institutions. 1 Comment [Commodities]
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, 9:15 AM More from the USDA: Soybeans gain +0.8% as the expected crop is cut 2% to 2.638B bushels vs. trade estimates of a 1% reduction. Ending stocks, however, remain at 115M bushels as the USDA cuts exports 55M bushels to 1.055B. Without the export reduction, ending stocks would have fallen to the frighteningly low level of 60M bushels. (full report, .pdf) 1 Comment [Commodities]

JJS iPath Dow Jones-UBS Softs Total Return Sub-Index ETN

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iPath Dow Jones-UBS Softs Total Return Sub-Index ETN