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Tuesday, June 4, 10:51 AM BNP's "Love-Panic Index" signals a correction ahead as it crossed into "love" territory a few weeks back. Past experience says to brace for an average 12% decline in the S&P (SPY) over the next 6 months. The biggest drivers of the recent move into "love" have been State Street's Investor Confidence, the CFTC's COT report, falling short interest, rising Nasdaq to NYSE trading volume, and small caps (IWM) outperformance over large caps (IWB). 14 Comments
Monday, May 20, 3:11 PM The Russell 2000 (IWM) cracked 1,000 for the first time this morning, but the small cap sector is far from over-loved by the fund managers who invest in it, according to Credit Suisse's Lori Calvasina - they ended Q1 with cash holdings at a near 10-year high. Indexing (IJR, IWO, IWN XSLV are some others) beats most active management, but Calvasina screened for stocks owned by fewer than 50 small-cap funds with $500M-$1.5B market cap, and with favorable investment ratings. No surprise the answer is heavy on mREITs - MTGE, AMTG, PMT. Also coming up: OMX and WFR. Comment!
Thursday, May 9, 3:24 PM "Our enthusiasm is clearly a notch below where we were at the beginning of the year," write Credit Suisse analysts, starting to see a bit of froth creep into small caps. At 16.4x earnings, the Russell 2000 (IWM) "has admittedly lost its valuation appeal." For now, they're buyers on dips, but should the index near the 1,000 level, valuation pressure will really start to be felt. 3 Comments
Friday, April 26, 9:26 AM Small-caps have a fan in Goldman Sachs which is out with a report today forecasting a 14% gain in the Russell 2000 (IWM) over the next 12 months vs. just 6% for the S&P 500 (SPY). The S&P is outperforming YTD by about 50 bps. 2 Comments
Monday, April 15, 12:38 PM The S&P (SPY) and Dow (DIA) have continued to notch record highs, but small caps (IWM -3%) - which led the way higher for much of the year - rolled over a few weeks ago and are falling especially sharply today. Technicians fret. 1 Comment
Sunday, April 14, 8:25 AM The reconstitution of the Russell indexes coming up in June, Credit Suisse aims to anticipate who's in and who's out. The rules-based approach of the Russell 2000 has allowed arbitragers to profit each summer by front-running the moves, making the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) a poorer play for small cap fans than IJR . Expected among the top 25 adds are ARCP, SRPT, PBYI, ACAD, and WSTC. Among the top 25 deletes: CPST, FCEL, CHKE, OMER, and EML. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, March 26, 1:27 PM Small-cap stocks are set to outperform, according to Goldman research showing the IWM outperforms the SPY by an annualized 8.1% in quarters following a steep drop in the VIX. The "acute" decline in the VIX YTD "provides a tailwind to small-cap performance in 2Q13." A must-read for small cap index fans is SA author Ploutos' piece suggesting IJR is your best bet. 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Friday, March 22, 12:29 PM Lagging the solid rise in stocks today are small caps, the Russell 2000 (IWM) up 0.1% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq post better than 0.5% gains. Thus far in 2013, IWM is about level with the S&P, but is about 300 bps better on a Y/Y basis. IJR - maybe better for small cap fans - has outperformed both. Comment!
Tuesday, February 19, 9:10 AM Owners of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) may be able to declare arbitragers as dependents on their tax returns. Sharp traders have been gaming the rules-based rebalancing of the popular small-cap index for sweet profits each summer. Small-cap fans should instead take a look at IJR - it's performed better thanks to inclusion rules that may make more sense and are less likely to be arbitraged. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Monday, January 7, 12:47 PM With U.S. small caps "picked over," some managers are looking overseas for ideas. International valuations are at 13X earnings and dividend yields of 3% vs. domestic at 15X and 2%, according to Mark Bogar, whose firm is allocating 57% of it small cap exposure to foreign holdings, a big jump from a year ago. 1 Comment
Tuesday, January 1, 12:00 PM Growth and value ETFs ran neck-to-neck in 2012. Key growth ETFs include IWZ, IWF, JKE, JKH, JKK, MDYG, SLYG and SPYG. Key value ETFs include IWW, EFV, IWS, IWN IWD, JKL, JKI, JKF, MDYV, SLYV, and SPYV. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Friday, December 21, 2012, 12:33 PM The technicians might find it interesting that the Russell 2000 is back at a "resistance level" it's touched and failed at a number of times going all the way back to 2007. Better luck this time? IWM -1.2%. 2 Comments
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 3:46 PM John Bogle's never bought the idea that small caps outperform large caps over time, but his assertion is based on the removal from the 20th century a decade of particular small cap outperformance starting in 1973. Without it, he says, large caps have actually done better. Is this fair? What if we remove a decade of large cap dominance? In 2012, microcaps (IWC) have gained 15%, vs. 11.6% for the Russel 2000 (IWM), and 13.6% for the SPY. 2 Comments
Wednesday, November 14, 2012, 11:16 AM Moving mostly in line with the S&P in the selloff since the Fed's mid-September QE∞ announcement, the Russell 2000 (IWM) begins to more sharply underperform over the past session and a half. The Russell's relative strength 2 months ago may have signalled a top. Could its weakness now be the start of a bottom forming? 1 Comment
Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 8:56 AM The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has broken out to an all-time high while the Dow and S&P remain a few percentage points shy of theirs, notes John Spence. Not only have small caps shown relative strength of late, but sizable inflows into their ETFs (IWM AUM +4.5% just yesterday) also suggest a greater appetite for risk-taking among investors. 3 Comments
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, 7:16 AM Waiting for a rally in small caps as a sign the broader market is ready to break out to new highs? You've gotten it - the Russell 2000 (IWM) is up 6.6% since August 1 vs. SPY +2.2%. Small caps are often viewed as needing to outperform during uptrends to confirm investor appetite to take on risk. 1 Comment [Quick Ideas]

JKK iShares Morningstar Small Growth Index ETF

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iShares Morningstar Small Growth Index ETF