Thu, Oct. 8, 2:21 PM
- Citigroup questions the sustainability of the recent rally for some machinery stocks, saying its cautious view on the global economy and downbeat near-term outlook for most commodities make it wary on the more China/commodity-levered names such as Caterpillar (CAT +1.8%) and Joy Global (JOY +10.9%).
- Citi says short-covering does not appear to have played a major role in the recent rally, at least relative to other heavily-shorted sectors; the firm senses conviction levels have been growing on the short side in recent weeks for JOY, Oshkosh (OSK +2.3%) and United Rentals (URI +3.4%), and historical seasonal patterns argue against being too bearish against Deere (DE +2.2%).
- In light of bearish investor positioning, the firm favors Buy-rated URI, OSK and Eaton (ETN +1.6%).
Wed, Oct. 7, 10:11 AM
- Joy Global (JOY +8.2%) jumps in early trade after Morgan Stanley turned bullish and upgraded the metal and mining sector to Attractive.
- Stanley sees commodity prices rising 19% by 2017, which would be "a sharp reversal from the experience in the last 18 months," and believes the recent acceleration of financial and administrative stimulus policies in China "will start to feed through in both actual activity levels and equity market expectations."
Wed, Sep. 30, 5:34 PM
- Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ:VRSK) will replace Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) in the S&P 500 following the Oct. 7 close. Joy will replace Thoratec (about to be acquired) in the S&P MidCap 400.
- Verisk has risen to $77.42 after hours. Joy, which has had a rough year, has fallen to $14.52, putting it a penny below a 52-week low of $14.53.
Fri, Sep. 25, 11:20 AM
- Barclays analyst Robert Wertheimer begins coverage of the U.S. machinery sector with a negative view, seeing consensus estimates too high across the board with revenue for the current cycle already peaking for most of the sector.
- The analyst expects a sharper than expected downturn for North American trucks, with another peak level eight years away; the tractor supercycle is only two years in a downturn, while the prior two supercycles saw seven consecutive down years in machinery sales, Wertheimer says.
- Of the 15 companies in the firm's sector coverage universe, only two are rated Overweight: United Rentals (URI +1.5%) and Allison Transmission (ALSN +0.4%).
- Started with Equal Weight ratings: Actuant (ATU -1.2%), AGCO (AGCO +1%), Caterpillar (CAT -1%), Joy Global (JOY -2.9%), Lincoln Electric (LECO -0.8%), Manitowoc (MTW -1.9%), Terex (TEX -0.7%) and WABCO (WBC -1.2%).
- Rated Underweight: Deere (DE -0.3%), CNH Industrial (CNHI +1.5%), Cummins (CMI -0.8%), PACCAR (PCAR -1%) and Navistar (NAV -2.9%).
Thu, Sep. 24, 11:22 AM
- Caterpillar's (CAT -6.3%) latest woes are wreaking havoc on other machinery stocks, including Deere (DE -3.4%), Joy Global (JOY -2.4%), Cummins (CMI -2.8%) and Terex (TEX -5.6%).
- CAT said today it is lowering its sales outlook for the year and will cut as many as 5K jobs between now and the end of 2016, and that sales and revenue could drop in 2016 for a record fourth straight year.
- Earlier this week, CAT gave its latest update on three-month rolling sales figures, which have now declined for 33 straight months.
Thu, Sep. 24, 9:25 AM
Sat, Sep. 19, 8:25 AM
- Metal and mining stocks have been hit hard in recent months, but analysts at FBR Capital argue that there are still attractive names to own in the sector.
- Companies with exposure to the zinc and met coal markets look appealing, FBR says, as supply reductions could act as a positive catalyst for prices; Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) is the firm's top pick there, with Horsehead Holding (NASDAQ:ZINC) the favorite small-cap idea.
- The firm sees "no structural turnaround for domestic thermal coal," but thinks the rate of decline will begin to slow next year, justifying Outperform ratings on Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP) and Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ:WLB); Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD) and Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) are rated Underperform.
- FBR is fairly upbeat on steel names, initiating SunCoke Energy (NYSE:SXC) and SunCoke Partners (NYSE:SXCP) at Outperform, as SunCoke’s long-lived coke assets are able to generate strong margins “in almost any U.S. steel environment"; Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) is rated Market Perform.
- The copper market will remain in surplus through 2017, FBR says, but it rates Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) at Outperform; Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is rated Market Perform.
- Among precious metals miners, the firm prefers Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD), the latter "a diversified company with a solid balance sheet and attractive acquisition opportunities."
Thu, Sep. 17, 2:58 PM
- Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson sees the potential for a “Nightmare on Elm Street scenario” for companies such as U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF), Joy Global (NYSE:JOY), Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), Fortescue Metals (OTCPK:FSUMF) and United Rentals (NYSE:URI), as steel usage tumbles and truck and crane orders crumble.
- The analyst says U.S. shipments of steel in August totaled 3.3M tons, down 3.8% M/M and 8.9% Y/Y, and compared to the six-year average change of +6.7% M/M and +5.1% Y/Y, suggesting unseasonably weak U.S. demand.
- Johnson also points to today's decision by Konecranes - a global bellwether in the sale of industrial cranes - to cut its full-year guidance due to “rapidly changing market sentiments” in the equipment space.
Wed, Sep. 16, 7:03 PM
- J.P. Morgan analysts warn that companies with large amounts of floating-rate debt - including Chesapeake Energy, Freeport McMoRan, Ford and GE - could be at risk if the Fed decides to raise interest rates.
- Companies with variable/floating-rate debt suffer a more immediate impact by a rate hike than companies with fixed-rate debt, the analysts say; variable-rate coupons typically reset quarterly, meaning that changes in the base rate flow through almost immediately to variable-rate borrowers, while fixed-rate borrowers do not see such an impact until they refinance or issue new debt.
- JPM lists 25 companies - not including financials - that have the “highest variable-rate debt as a percentage of market cap": FMC, NRG, FCX, AES, CVC, LVLT, PVH, CHK, FE, DVA, THC, OI, CNX, F, HCA, FOSL, RCL, JOY, GE, ADS, ALLE, HBI, GT, DNB, AN
Fri, Sep. 4, 8:43 AM
- Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) -2.1% premarket as UBS cuts its stock target price to $20 from $40 and reiterates its Neutral rating, as the company takes initiatives to catch up with deteriorating demand.
- North American coal was the biggest driver behind JOY's surprisingly low service bookings, in both underground and surface segments, and management noted a goodwill impairment in underground may be imminent
- JOY plans to take additional measures to improve efficiency and streamline its footprint, including $60M-plus in cost reductions, and believes its actions can lift its capacity utilization to ~75% from 50%.
- JOY fell 14.6% yesterday after the company's guidance cut and warning of continued pressure on demand for mining equipment.
Thu, Sep. 3, 2:49 PM
- Joy Global (JOY -15.1%) is today's biggest decliner in the S&P 500, plunging to 52-week lows following lower than expected FQ3 results and reduced guidance, as the company expects commodity demand - and thus, demand for mining equipment - to remain under pressure for the rest of 2015.
- During today's earnings conference call, CFO James Sullivan said JOY could take a potential impairment charge on its underground unit after discovering an apparent discrepancy between its estimated fair value and carrying value.
- Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann keeps a Hold rating and $34 price target on the stock, saying JOY's end-market visibility remains poor, and meaningful recovery for the company is "a long way off."
- Longtime bull Lawrence De Maria at William Blair says JOY's reduced outlook is "not a major surprise" amid lower commodity prices but does imply a "rather large" reduction in Q4 EPS to ~$0.42 vs. his expectations for $1.00.
Thu, Sep. 3, 12:45 PM
Thu, Sep. 3, 9:12 AM
Thu, Sep. 3, 7:16 AM
- Adjusted net income of $53.2M, or $0.54 per diluted share vs. $80.4M, or $0.80 per diluted share in the same quarter a year ago.
- Bookings fell 31% Y/Y to $635M. Service bookings dropped 16% to $537M.
- Backlog at the end of the quarter was $1.12B vs. $1.33B at the beginning of the year.
- Capex of $18M during the quarter vs. $25M during the same period a year ago.
- "We are continuing to take proactive steps to better position the company for the eventual market recovery," said CEO Ted Doheny.
- The company now expects 2015 guidance of $1.80 in EPS on revenue of $3.1B vs. earnings of $2.50-$3.00 per share on sales of $3.3B-$3.6B.
- FQ3 results
- JOY -4.3% premarket
Thu, Sep. 3, 6:02 AM
Wed, Sep. 2, 5:30 PM
JOY vs. ETF Alternatives
Joy Global Inc is a manufacturer and servicer of productivity mining equipment for the extraction of coal and other minerals and ores. It manufactures and markets original equipment and parts and perform services for both underground and surface mining.
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