Thu, May 21, 4:36 PM
Tue, May 12, 6:20 PM
- S&P Capital IQ chief investment officer Erin Gibbs agrees that the worst is over for commodities and that the mining equipment business is stabilizing, seconding the view offered yesterday by Baird analysts in an upgrade of Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Joy Global (NYSE:JOY).
- Both companies reported "rather dismal" Q1 earnings and warned that the next couple of quarters could be even worse, Gibbs told CNBC today, "but clearly investors are looking much farther ahead, and they're looking at 2016, which actually has really great [expected] growth going forward."
- Looking at JOY, Gibbs says the stock is trading at a good valuation, is below its one-year average P-E ratio, and sports a healthy dividend.
- After meeting with CAT management, Citi's Timothy Thein raises his stock price target to $90 from $85 after coming away with a better appreciation for potential upside from internal cost-saving initiatives.
Mon, May 11, 8:23 AM
- Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) has been upgraded at Baird on the belief that the stock may have bottomed as the worst of the mining and commodity deflation cycle appears to have passed.
- Analyst Mig Dobre raised his rating to outperform from neutral, and boosted his stock price target to $101 from $80.
- Dobre feels the decline in commodity prices over the last several years has been on par with the 1980's bust, and that anything worse would resemble the cycle seen during the Great Depression, which would be unlikely given the significant stimulus from central banks around the world.
- Caterpillar's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 in each of the past four years through 2014, although it has never underperformed the broader market for five-straight years.
- Dobre also upgraded Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) to outperform from neutral, and raised the stock price target to $62 from $45.
- CAT +0.8%, JOY +0.8% premarket
Fri, Apr. 24, 5:44 PM
- Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is maintained with a Buy rating at Stifel following Q1 results, believing that buybacks, a healthy dividend, and North American construction will remain steady while investors await a boost in commodities - a function of the U.S. dollar, and demand in China and emerging markets.
- The bears are out on CAT, but the firm thinks it is a stretch to expect the current downturn will last much longer than 2016 and believes a recovery in North American heavy construction is in the early stages.
- Barclays raises its price target to $93 from $90, noting that CAT's Q1 15.8% construction margin was well above its 11.4% estimate; CAT also seems open to more significant cost takeouts, particularly within resource industries, after increasing its planned restructuring costs by $100M in 2015 (Briefing.com).
- Wolfe Research thinks CAT’s results are bad news for Joy Global (NYSE:JOY), and the firm expects multiple revenue and EPS revisions for JOY through 2015.
Thu, Mar. 5, 9:15 AM
Thu, Mar. 5, 7:44 AM
- Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) -7.2% premarket after posting a sizable FQ1 earnings miss, a 16% Y/Y decline in revenue, and cutting guidance for FY 2015.
- JOY now sees 2015 EPS of $2.50-$3.00, down from its previous guidance of $3.10-$3.50, and revenues of $3.3B-$3.6B, below an earlier outlook for $3.6B-$3.8B.
- JOY says the outlook for global growth in 2015 has been reduced in recent months as the slowing trends seen in H2 2014 have continued.
- Q1 bookings fell 19% Y/Y to $700M as equipment orders fell 30%: "Our direct service business remains a critical and stabilizing force for us, but we have recently seen slowing in the bookings profile as maintenance and rebuild schedules are stretched. There has also been evidence of commodity production declines in some end markets that is also impacting our service bookings."
- Says it is now aiming for $50M in savings from cost reductions this year vs. its previous goal of $25M in savings.
- CAT -1.2% premarket.
Thu, Mar. 5, 6:06 AM
Wed, Mar. 4, 5:30 PM
Mon, Mar. 2, 8:44 AM
- BofA/Merrill has downgraded Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) to Neutral from Buy given challenging end markets, and cut its price on the stock to $47 from $55.
- The firm expects consensus estimates to continue to move lower based on the weaker start to the year, deteriorating order trends, and foreign currency headwinds.
- JOY -1.9% premarket
Thu, Feb. 19, 9:12 AM
Wed, Feb. 18, 10:56 AM
Tue, Feb. 10, 3:14 PM
- Jim Chanos' dislike of Caterpillar (CAT -0.8%) stock is well known (I, II) but Axiom Capital's Gordon Johnson wishes that "someone please tell Jim Chanos that Joy Global (JOY -2%) is worse off than Caterpillar."
- With ~65% of JOY’s sales linked to the sale of equipment for coal mining (with a heavy weighting to the U.S. coal market) vs. less than half this amount for CAT (exacerbated by CAT’s far less direct exposure to the U.S. market), the analyst thinks JOY’s fundamentals stand to suffer significantly more than CAT as several headwinds come to fruition over the next year.
- Given a once-in-a-decade correction lower in commodity prices, Johnson firmly believes the next 12 months will bring far more than the typical downward seasonality for JOY, as he reiterates his Sell rating and $28 stock price target.
Tue, Jan. 27, 3:58 PM
- Cummins (CMI -3.8%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at First Global despite delivering a respectable performance for the final nine months of 2014.
- CMI’s industrial engines are highly exposed to the construction and mining industries which are being impacted by weak capital spending in China and other emerging markets, the firm says; also, demand in the Chinese and Brazilian truck markets remains weak.
- At 13.9x estimated CY 2015 earnings, CMI shares already trade at a moderate premium to peers such as Caterpillar, First Global adds.
- CMI and other equipment manufacturers are broadly lower following Caterpillar's (CAT -7.2%) disappointing quarter: JOY -5.3%, MTW -5.1%, DE -2.7%, CNHI -1.9%.
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:42 AM
- Following a downgrade to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, Joy Global (JOY -3.5%) is extending last week's drop.
- The firm lowered it PT on the stock to $52 from $67, stating that current challenges facing the mining sector will continue to weigh on the company's results and investor sentiment.
Wed, Jan. 7, 8:35 AM
- Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) -1.2% premarket after KeyBanc downgrades shares to Hold from Buy, seeing limited near-term catalysts to spark a move higher and expecting further declines in mining capex to hurt order growth.
- The firm also cuts Terex (NYSE:TEX) and Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) to Hold from Buy in light of heightened uncertainty in the energy sector and the weakening euro, both of which should pressure earnings and are not yet fully reflected in Wall Street estimates.
Dec. 17, 2014, 7:08 AM
- Net income of $136.9M, or $1.25 per diluted share vs. $26.8M, or $1.11 per diluted share in the same quarter a year ago.
- Bookings fell 27% Y/Y to $783M. Service bookings dropped 9% to $648M.
- Backlog at the end of the quarter was $1.3B vs. $1.5B at the beginning of the year.
- The company expects further capital expenditure declines in 2015, as companies seek to optimize their mining portfolios to operate in a lower commodity price environment.
- The company's capex during the quarter declined to $22M from $36M.
- FQ4 results
JOY vs. ETF Alternatives
Joy Global Inc is a manufacturer and servicer of productivity mining equipment for the extraction of coal and other minerals and ores. It manufactures and markets original equipment and parts and perform services for both underground and surface mining.
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