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Thursday, January 24, 3:34 PM The yen's decline is the real deal, says George Soros holding court at Davos, and it's going to make for some unhappy German exporters. The euro, he says, is the outlier currency as the ECB stands alone among the major central banks in not engaging in QE. His comments hit an already weak yen, sending the dollar higher against it by 1.8% to ¥90.20. The hedged Japan equity fund (DXJ) +2.6%. 7 Comments [Global & FX, On the Move]
Tuesday, January 22, 11:11 AM Not a whole lot changed with the BOJ's doubling of its inflation target to 2%, writes Shaun Richards. First off, any additional QE action is being delayed until 2014. Second, it's not even additional action - 2014's QE will be little more than a continuation of the current program. For now, one of the more independent central banks remains so. FXY +1.7%, DXJ -3%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 22, 8:33 AM In addition to buy the rumor, sell the news action in the yen, Japanese shares sell off after the expected BOJ decision to up its inflation target to 2%. If getting busy ending deflation is of such import, the decision to wait until 2014 to being open-ended QE is a curious one. The Nikkei -0.4%, bringing its 2-day slide to about 2%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Saturday, January 19, 9:15 AM "The potential purchase of dollars and sale of yen is gigantic," says Felix Zulauf (Barron's Roundtable earlier), as Japan's institutions begin unwinding hedges put in place to guard against yen strength. The yen could slide to ¥120 over the next two years, he says, and Japanese shares - where 70% of stocks trade below book with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.5 (1.5 in the U.S.) - will benefit. Stay hedged with DXJ. 1 Comment [Quick Ideas, Global & FX]
Friday, January 18, 3:56 PM Anything to do with housing, we are long, Kyle Bass tells CNBC. This includes MBS (MBB), mortgage servicing rights (Bass doesn't mention names, but OCN, NSM, WAC, NCT are among the players), and conventional mortgage insurers. The interview also contains familiar red meat concerning the Japan debt bomb, with Bass saying the timetable for detonation has moved up. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Thursday, January 17, 3:09 PM After clearing out the weak shorts a couple of days ago, the yen is sliding sharply again, with the dollar +1.8% and buying more than ¥90 for the first time since late 2010. It should make for a pleasant Friday in Tokyo. The Japan Hedged Equity Fund (EWJ) +2.5%. The unhedged EWJ +0.5%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 8, 5:25 PM Gundlach: His best idea remains long Japanese stocks and short the yen, though he expects a nice correction after big moves in both. The Nikkei could easily go up another 10% without being close to overvalued. He adds Chinese stocks to the list as well, though as with the Nikkei, Shanghai has had a big recent run and is due for a correction. Comment! [Quick Ideas]
Friday, January 4, 7:39 AM Japan parties in its first session of the new year, the Nikkei gaining 2.8% to its highest close since March 2011. Leading the gains were exporters, including Toyota (TM) +6.4%, catching up to big gains in the States over the past week. The slide in the yen picks up steam, the dollar +1.2% and buying ¥88.25. Hedged vs. unhedged Japan stock ETFs over the past 3 months. Comment! [Global & FX, On the Move]
Monday, December 31, 2012, 11:47 AM Japan's Nikkei gained 23% in 2012, its best gain since 2005, but the popular EWJ is up just 6.3%, thanks to a declining yen (FXY -11.3%). The DXJ - hedged against currency fluctuations - is up 16.5% YTD. Another hedged fund, DBJP +20.5% YTD. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, December 28, 2012, 7:48 AM Once again (previous) for the Japan stock bulls/yen bears - many factors are on your side, but contrary opinion isn't one of them. Add Goldman to the list believing the world has changed. It's picking up shares of exporters and banks in hopes the government will truly force yen devaluation. Tokyo gained another 0.7% overnight, and the dollar is at a 2-year high of ¥86.07. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 26, 2012, 6:55 AM While you were celebrating the holiday, the Nikkei gained nearly another 3% over its last 2 sessions and the yen slid to a 20-month low vs. the dollar. Shinzo Abe was formally approved as PM last night, and he has vowed to reignite inflation and devalue the currency, and promises to force the BOJ to play along. 3 Comments [Global & FX]
Sunday, December 23, 2012, 8:36 AM The BOJ must double its inflation target to 2% or the government will pass a law forcing it to do so, says incoming PM Shinzo Abe. BOJ Governor Shirakawa seemingly already waved the white flag on this matter last week, but he's also on record as saying 2% is unrealistic given Japan had a 1.3% average inflation rate even during the bubble years. 9 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 12:22 PM The BOJ has run out of options and currency debasement is all that's left, says Jeff Gundlach, explaining why long Japanese stocks is his most high-conviction idea at the moment. As for U.S. fixed income, he likes cash and short-term instruments. Investors in "yieldy" types of things like junk bonds may be about to get a wake-up call in 2013. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 9:59 AM One loses track of how many reform-minded Prime Ministers the entrenched powers and bureaucracies in Japan have chewed up and spit out over the last decade. Incoming PM Shinzo Abe himself is on go-round #2. He promises to do all but force the BOJ into helicopter drops of currency. The yen gapped lower on the election result, but has retaken much of that ground. FXY -0.2%. Comment! [Global & FX]
Sunday, December 16, 2012, 8:12 AM Exit polls show Japan's LDP gaining the big victory expected of it, garnering maybe 310 seats (out of 480 total) in the country's lower house of parliament. The win returns Shinzo Abe to the PM's role 5 years after he lost the job. Abe ran promising to goad the BOJ into far easier monetary policy, and stocks (up) and the yen (down) have responded over the past weeks. 14 Comments [Global & FX, Breaking News]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 2:51 PM Japan goes to the polls over the weekend, and the LDP is expected to have a big victory, ushering in Shinzo Abe as PM. Abe has been clear about the need for the BOJ to target a higher inflation rate. Stocks and the yen have responded - the Nikkei rising 12% in a month, and the yen nearing its YTD low vs. the dollar. Stay nimble. If the LDP wins by a smallish margin, Sunday night could be a tough one for trend-followers. 1 Comment [Global & FX]

JPP SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan ETF

JPP

SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan ETF