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Monday, Aug 192013, 4:56 AM
Monday, Aug 192013, 4:56 AM| Comment!
- The 12.2% rise in exports was the fastest since December 2010, with the weak yen helping to boost sales of cars and electronics. Sales to the U.S. +18.4%, to China +9.5%, to the EU +16.6%.
- "The details are encouraging because you can see that exports to Japan's main markets are bouncing back," says economist Hiroaki Muto.
- The 19.6% jump in imports was the largest gain in three years, due to the weak yen and increasing oil prices.
- The trade deficit of ¥1.02T was the third-largest ever. "This is a pretty big deficit and a negative for Japanese companies that will suffer from rising costs," says Yoshiki Shinke of Dai-ichi Life Research.
- ETFs - Stocks: EWJ, NKY, EWV, EZJ, ITF, JSC, JPP, DXJ, SCJ, DFJ, FJP, JPNL, JPNS, DXJS. Bonds: JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD. Currency: FXY, JYN, YCL, YCS.
Thursday, Aug 152013, 4:03 AM
Thursday, Aug 152013, 4:03 AM| Comment!
- Reducing Japan's corporate tax rate wouldn't have an immediate impact on the economy, Finance Minister Taro Aso says, as only around 30% of firms pay such taxes.
- Rather, the government should consider tax breaks to promote capex and business investment. Economics Minister Akira Amari echoed those remarks.
- In addition, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga denied that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has told ministers to consider reducing the corporate tax rate.
- There has speculation that the government is considering the cut in order to offset a planned two-step rise in sales tax amid fears that such an increase would harm the economy as it begins to recover from deflation.
- The Nikkei falls 2.1% while the dollar drops 0.2% vs the yen following the remarks. A lack of clarity about when the Fed might start tapering is also hurting the dollar.
- Japan ETFs - Stocks: EWJ, NKY, EWV, EZJ, ITF, JSC, JPP, DXJ, SCJ, DFJ, FJP, JPNL, JPNS, DXJS. Bonds: JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD. Currency: FXY, JYN, YCL, YCS
Tuesday, Aug 132013, 7:29 AM
Tuesday, Aug 132013, 7:29 AM| 1 Comment
- The yen falls sharply vs. the greenback with dollar/yen +1.1% to ¥98.00 following a report Shinzo Abe's government is considering a corporate tax cut.
- The idea to cut the corporate tax comes as the government increasingly looks to be moving forward with a big hike in the national sales tax - a momentum-killer for the Japanese economy on more than one occasion throughout these two lost decades. A note from JPMorgan this morning has that desk believing the boost will go through as expected, with a final decision coming in October.
- FXY -0.6% premarket. Other yen ETFs: YCL, YCS, JYN.
- The news also boosted stocks, with the Topix climbing 2%. Even after struggling for the last quarter, the Topix is 35% higher on the year. It trades at 1.2x book value compared to 2.5% for the S&P 500 and 1.7% for the Stoxx Europe 600.
- DXJ +0.4%, EWJ +0.7% premarket. Other equity ETFs: EWJ, NKY, EWV, EZJ, ITF, JSC, JPP, DXJ, SCJ, DFJ, FJP, JPNL, JPNS, DXJS.
- JGB ETFs: JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD.
Monday, Aug 122013, 2:58 AM
Monday, Aug 122013, 2:58 AM| 1 Comment
- Capital expenditure unexpectedly fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, dropping 0.1% on quarter vs consensus of +0.7.
- Private consumption +0.8% vs forecasts of +0.5%, boosted by spending on food, travel and consumer electronics.
- External demand contributed 0.2 percentage point to growth and domestic demand 0.5 point.
- The worse-than-expected GDP has intensified the debate about a proposed increase in sales tax. "There is no need to raise the sales tax in a hurry," says Koichi Hamada, a key adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Doing so "as scheduled might hurt the economy."
- ETFs - Stocks EWJ, NKY, EWV, EZJ, ITF, JSC, JPP, DXJ, SCJ, DFJ, FJP, JPNL, DXJS, JPNS. Bonds: JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD. Forex: FXY, JYN, YCL, YCS
Friday, Jul 262013, 7:43 AMThe yen (FXY) gains 0.7% - dollar yen falling to ¥98.59 - after Japanese inflation rose 0.4% in June, the sharpest rise since June 2008, fueling ideas the BOJ's stimulus "may be working," says Credit Agricole FX chief Yuji Salito. If it is working now, that means less of it in the future, and the Nikkei tumbles 3%. EWJ -1.6%, DXJ -1.8% premarket. |Friday, Jul 262013, 7:43 AM| 1 Comment
Tuesday, Jul 22013, 8:38 AMA big rip in dollar/yen sends that pair above ¥100 for the first time since the start of June. The bounce in dollar/yen - which fell as low as ¥94 mid-month - comes alongside a big rebound in the Nikkei, up about 16% from the June low. FXY -0.6%, EWJ +0.9%, DXJ +1.4% premarket. |Tuesday, Jul 22013, 8:38 AM| 1 Comment
Monday, Jun 242013, 8:25 AMBOJ Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata - a forceful proponent of monetary ease - says the bank has no plans to step in over temporary market turbulence and would only consider additional easing were there a long-term decline in price expectations. Remember the central bank drill: Talk tough, talk tough, cave. EWJ -3.4, DXJ -3.6% premarket. The yen (FXY) is weaker by 0.4%, dollar/yen at ¥98.22. |Monday, Jun 242013, 8:25 AM| Comment!
Tuesday, Jun 182013, 12:20 PMThe speculative phase of the rally in Japanese stocks is over, says Deutsche, setting up the next leg which will require the participation of domestic investors. Yes, underweight global equity funds may help, but they've already boosted stakes and have just $2T in assets compared to $9T of Japanese household cash. DXJ +3.1%, EWJ +2.3%. |Tuesday, Jun 182013, 12:20 PM| 1 Comment
Saturday, Jun 152013, 10:48 AMSome color and context from Nomura's highly publicized Nikkei 18K call: The bank's strategists "do not brush off recent stock market turmoil lightly" and note that a close below Nikkei 12,362 may be particularly significant. The bank's forecast is based on the idea that earnings are recovering and global P/Es are expanding. Japanese stocks (EWJ, DXJ) are "once again trading at lower P/E ratios than U.S. stocks," the bank notes, adding that "if the average P/E ratio of U.S. stocks rises to 16x around H2 … Japanese stocks' P/E ratio could rise to 17x." |Saturday, Jun 152013, 10:48 AM| 2 Comments
Thursday, Jun 132013, 3:21 PMAbenomics and the direction of the yen get a lot of attention, says fund manager Rajiv Jain, but don't forget how dependent businesses are on China. He's having a hard time finding Japanese firms with sustainable growth. "These are some phenomenal companies there, but (we've found) better opportunities elsewhere." Artisian's Mark Yockey goes further: "Desperate people do desperate things, and Japan is in a desperate situation." |Thursday, Jun 132013, 3:21 PM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jun 132013, 11:07 AMThumbing its nose at the recent collapse in the Nikkei, Nomura boosts its year-end target for the index to 18K from 16K. "The full impact of Abenomics on capex and household incomes has yet to be felt." Among the individual stocks set to benefit are Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC). |Thursday, Jun 132013, 11:07 AM| 2 Comments
Wednesday, Jun 122013, 10:20 PM
Tuesday, Jun 112013, 2:55 PMThe yen (FXY +2.9%) spikes higher, bringing dollar/yen back below ¥96 amid rumors of busted carry trades and hedge fund liquidations. Should today's move be sustained, it would be the largest single-day drop for the pair since the 2010 flash crash. BofA's MacNeil Curry suggests the next stop in ¥91. Japan stock ETFs take it hard: The iShares Japan Fund (EWJ -2%), WisdomTree's Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ -4.9%). |Tuesday, Jun 112013, 2:55 PM| 1 Comment
Sunday, Jun 92013, 9:58 PMJapan revises Q1 GDP up to 4.1% (annualized) from an initial reading of 3.5% sending the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) up 3% in early trading. Also helping Japanese stocks is the weak yen (FXY), down 0.4% against the dollar to ¥97.95. Meanwhile, the BOJ begins a two-day policy meeting. Goldman's advice: Initiate "long positions in Nikkei September futures with a target of 14,500 and a stop on a close below 12,700." For what it's worth. |Sunday, Jun 92013, 9:58 PM| 6 Comments
Friday, Jun 72013, 7:14 AMLong Nikkei, short yen continues to unwind with investors in 2013's most popular trade all hitting the exit at the same time. The yen's up another 1.6%, with dollar/yen at ¥95.47 and erasing more than 2 months worth of gains in the last few sessions. FXY +1.3% premarket. The Nikkei tumbled another 1.8% overnight and has also erased 2 months worth of gains. DXJ -2.3% premarket. Earlier: Japan's government pension fund confirms it's cutting JGB exposure and increasing equity holdings. |Friday, Jun 72013, 7:14 AM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jun 62013, 1:11 PMWhen crowded trades go bad: Investors don't wait until Tokyo to sell Japan - Nikkei futures tumble 3.5% as the yen flies higher, now at ¥96.76 and in two weeks erasing two months worth of gains in dollar/yen. The Nikkei has returned to its early April level as well. The unhedged EWJ falls 0.9%, while this year's hottest ETF, the hedged Japan fund (DXJ), slides 3%, now up only 16.5% YTD. |Thursday, Jun 62013, 1:11 PM| 5 Comments