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Wed, Mar. 12, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mon, Mar. 10, 10:45 AM
- The 8.3% dive in the price of iron ore to $104.70 per ton is the 2nd largest one-day decline on record, and came following weekend data showing an 18.1% Y/Y slump in Chinese exports in February (a gain of 7.5% was expected). While miners like BHP and RIO remain optimistic about supply/demand dynamics (though dour on price prospects), Goldman - picking one analyst team - sees the market moving into surplus in H2 and prices falling below $100 per ton.
- The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9% overnight and Brazil's Bovespa is down 2% in the early-going. Australia (EWA) declined 0.9% and the aussie (FXA) is off 0.6% to $0.9017.
- The steelmaking ingredient is off 22% YTD and at its lowest price since October 2012.
- In the meantime, the rumors are flying, including speculation a mill in China's Shanxi province defaulted on Friday and shut five to six furnaces. There's also chatter about banks looking to call in 20% of loans to private steel companies.
- EWZ -2.1%, VALE -2.8%.
- Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
- Base metal mining ETFs: XME, JUNR, PICK
Nov. 15, 2013, 12:52 PM
- The basic materials sector has badly lagged the broader market YTD, and Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky surmises investor rotation into the group is likely if the overall market rally is set to continue.
- Krinsky's charts tell him the sector has been making higher lows since the 2009 bottom, but unlike the broad market and many other sectors, it has yet to clear its 2007-08 highs, giving the look of an ascending triangle - and the presumption of an upside resolution.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, JUNR, PICK, MSXX, FMAT.
Sep. 12, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Oppenheimer analysts are believers in the materials sector, citing increasing evidence that the global economy is modestly improving from its recent lethargic pace of growth, particularly in emerging markets.
- Strategas isn't so sure; despite some stronger equity performance in recent weeks, it sees the persistence of cyclical weakness in emerging economies and the apparent forming of a structural consolidation in global commodities complex; it favors companies with a higher domestic revenue profile over those with a broader global footprint.
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) gets just 1% of its revenue overseas, while Airgas (ARG) has just 2%; those least exposed to the U.S. economy include Newmont Mining (NEM), which gets all of its revenue abroad, and International Flavors (IFF) and Owens-Illinois (OI), which each get 23%-24% of sales at home.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, EMT, PICK, JUNR. MSXX.
Sep. 11, 2013, 10:56 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch sees huge contrarian value in global mining and steel companies while investors remain underweight in their holdings.
- A stronger global economy is coming, BAML says, noting China has been restocking iron ore, the pace of copper destocking in the country has slowed, and global steel prices have been rising.
- The top buys from the firm: ATI in steel, CNX in coal, ABX and KGC in precious metals, KALU in aluminum, and SCCO in copper, plus diversified miners FCX and VALE.
- ETFs: XME, XLB, EMT, PICK, JUNR, MSXX.
Sep. 10, 2013, 10:26 AM
- The funds being closed make up just 4% of total assets under management, despite representing half of EGShares product line.
- "We have identified an opportunity to streamline our existing offering" founder Robert Holderith stated in a press release.
- Affected funds include: AGEM, FGEM, GGEM, HGEM, IGEM, LGEM, OGEM, QGEM, TGEM, UGEM, VGEM, EMT.
- Competing funds: EEM, VWO, EMFN, IPS, IRY, AXID, EMMT, EMEY, AXIT, AXTE, DBU, EMDI, ECON, JUNR
May. 9, 2013, 11:00 AMGlobal X sets for May 15 reverse splits on 6 ETFs, some - but not all of which - have dropped sharply in value over the last year: 1-for-4 on the Gold Explorers ETF (GLDX), 1-for-3 on the Uranium ETF (URA), 1-for-3 on the Junior Miners ETF (JUNR), 1-for-2 on the Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT), 1-for-2 on the China Materials ETF (CHIM), and 1-for-2 on the Pure Gold Miners ETF (GGGG). | Comment!
May. 15, 2012, 1:38 PM"Canada's business cycle bounce appears to have run its course," says BAML's Neil Dutta, expecting recent strong macro data to become less so. He takes note of the country's curious terms of trade hit - its eastern half importing expensive Brent crude, while the west exports cheaper WTI. Bottom line: Reduce exposure to Canadian risk assets and increase holdings of fixed income. | 1 Comment
May. 4, 2012, 10:13 AMCanada's Ivey PMI for April dives to 52.2 from 65.0 previously, and against expectations for 61.0. The loonie tumbles 0.5%, but remains above parity with the greenback at $1.0071. It's the latest in a string of weakish numbers from up north and may cease rumblings from the BoC about rate hikes. | 1 Comment
Apr. 30, 2012, 9:22 AMMore on Canada GDP: The Feb. decline - the worst print in more than 2 years - comes as mining and oil & gas extraction declined 1.6%, led by a 7% decline in mining, led by a 19% decline in Potash mining - a dive surely telegraphed by weak Q1 sales of the fertilizer reported by Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS). Improvement, however, is on the way, says Mosaic. | Comment!
Apr. 30, 2012, 8:42 AM
Apr. 26, 2012, 9:34 AM
Apr. 23, 2012, 12:27 PM"Almost a 51st state, but with a much better currency and a much more prudent government and central bank," says David Rosenberg on growing client interest in investing in Canada. Rosenberg sees a series of rate hikes by the BoC while the Fed remains on hold - giving the country and the loonie an even greater yield advantage. | 6 Comments
Apr. 19, 2012, 3:31 PM
Apr. 18, 2012, 11:28 AM
Apr. 18, 2012, 11:17 AMThe BoC lifts its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2% in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and repeats yesterday's notice of a "modest withdrawal" of stimulus being appropriate. The bank also notes an unfavorable fall in the country's oil export prices (WTI) in relation to oil import prices (Brent) as troublesome for the economy. | 1 Comment
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