SA News • Mon, Nov. 24
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- Kate Spade & Company (KATE) reported spectacular earnings on November 6th, 2014.
- We think the company can grow quite large based on commentary made by management.
- The company has a very strong execution record.
- Valuation is reasonable compared to peers.
Don't Be Left Holding The Bag: A Kate Spade, Michael Kors Pair Trade
- Women's fashion is a fickle business (this is a good thing for those that seek to understand the ebb and flow of art/style and more relevantly FOMO/envy culture).
- Last year, Coach traded at a >100% premium to Michael Kors -- since that time, KORS has usurped dominance in the eyes of the market.
- ... now trading at a remarkable >60% premium to Coach.
- I am now recommending a long Kate Spade -- short KORS pair trade until the market cap differential converges, at least from a 4:1 to 2:1 ratio.
- ... a 100% upside in KATE; 50% downside in KORS -- or until KORS buys KATE.
- The shares of Kate are down 16% over the last week, as it revised longer-term guidance downward.
- Value investors might be fooled into thinking this a great entry into a growth stock.
- The valuation is still very rich despite the pullback, and the North American market appears to be saturating.
Kate Spade Shares Routed After Earnings, Stock Still A Sell
- Kate Spade announced quarterly earnings yesterday.
- The Street was ecstatic over a 49% increase in revenue Y/Y and $10 million operating profit.
- However, after margin pressure from discounting to move excess inventory and keep up with competitors, the stock sold off by over 25%.
Kate Spade Is Synonymous With 'Cachet' And 'Consistent Operating Losses'
- Kate Spade announces quarterly earnings tomorrow.
- The brand's cache and upscale appeal have led to strong topline growth.
- However, its consistent operating losses are a cause for concern and do not warrant its enterprise value of 4x LTM revenue.
Fifth & Pacific Even More Expensive Following Asset Sales
Kate Spade Should Have A Higher Price To Sales Premium
Fifth & Pacific: Kate Spade Not Enough To Justify Valuation
Liz Claiborne: Shedding Brands, Gaining Growth Potential
Mon, Nov. 24, 11:15 AM
Wed, Nov. 12, 11:18 AM
- Macy's (NYSE:M) management was cautious on today's earnings call as the drop in Q4 and full-year EPS guidance was justified.
- A lull in sales after the Back-to-School season has bled into the early part of Q4.
- Omnichannel execution is better this year, says Macy's CFO Karen Hoguet. Capital spending on omnichannel could help the company's bottom line down the road.
- A major new private brand will be launched next year aimed at Latino customers.
- Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) made an appearance during the earnings call. Hoguet says the Kate channel should be a driver for sales this holiday due its on-trend assortment.
- The impact from the West Coast ports labor turmoil appears to be limited with Macy's saying most deliveries are on target with their anticipated delivery dates.
- Earnings call webcast
Thu, Nov. 6, 1:55 PM
- Kate Spade (KATE +19.1%) soars after the company showed brisk sales growth and a wider gross margin rate in Q3 to defy the mall retailer funk this season.
- Operating income came in at $3.5547M vs. a loss of $1.329M a year ago.
- A decidedly on-trend assortment of handbags and accessories appears to have helped Kate Spade take market share from Coach, and perhaps slow down the Michael Kors juggernaut.
Thu, Nov. 6, 1:27 PM
- Apparel seller Ann issued a warning today on the impact of labor uncertainty at West Coast ports as part of its Q4 guidance.
- The retailer expects $8M in extra air freight costs due to product shipment delays.
- There's also been some reports of delays at ports in the Seattle and Tacoma area which account for 16% of container cargo traffic on the West Coast.
- Analysts fret that more companies will resort to air freight to ensure stores are stocked in front of the Black Friday rush.
- Apparel and footwear stocks: SKX, FL, VRA, ICON, NKE, WWW, DECK, CROX, SHOO, BWS, KATE, ANN, PERY, LULU, RL, PVH, VNCE, CRI, UA, HBI, VFC, COLM, KORS, GIL, SQBG, JCP, KSS, DDS, M, JWN, RL.
Thu, Nov. 6, 12:47 PM
Thu, Nov. 6, 9:14 AM
- Gainers: PLNR +74%. PESI +24%. SWIR +20%. MEET +13%. RVLT +11%. COT +11%. DATA +11%. ACAS +10%. NDLS +9%. KATE +8%. KATE +8%. WFM +9%. HZNP +6%. CECO +6%. DRYS +5%. TRUE +5%.
- Losers: AEZS -51%. SZYM -47%. SNMX -26%. GNW -24%. WWWW -22%. CSOD -19%. PHMD -17%. GERN -14%. MCP -12%. GNRC -11%. WAC -9%. QCOM -7%. Z -7%. PBR -5%.
Thu, Nov. 6, 7:55 AM
- Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) reports comparable direct-to-consumer sales rose 15.2% in Q3.
- The company's rapid expansion drove sales higher. Retail space square footage in North America was up 47% from a year ago.
- Segment revenue growth: Kate Spade North America +11.0% to $192.9M, Kate Spade International -2.6% to $50.9M, Adelington Design Group +15.5% to $6.63M.
- Gross profit rate +140 bps to 62.8%
- SG&A expenses +32.3% to $154M.
- KATE +7.6% premarket
Thu, Nov. 6, 7:25 AM
Wed, Nov. 5, 5:30 PM
- AAON, AAP, AAWW, AEE, AES, AINV, AKRX, AMCX, AMRC, AMSC, AOL, APA, AZN, BBG, BCE, BCRX, BDBD, BKCC, BR, CDW, CECE, CECO, CNK, CNQ, COTY, CPN, CRZO, CVC, CYNI, DNOW, DTV, ERJ, FSYS, FUN, FUR, GEO, GLP, GNRC, GOLD, HAIN, HII, HNR, HSC, HSIC, HSP, HZNP, IT, KATE, KERX, KLIC, LIN, LMIA, LPI, MITL, MPEL, MWIV, NAVB, NRF, NTWK, NXTM, ONE, OWW, PBH, PDCE, PERI, PHMD, PKD, PMC, PNK, POZN, PRFT, PRGO, PRIM, PTCT, RDNT, RGEN, SATS, SCMP, SFUN, SFY, SGM, SLH, SNI, SNMX, SRPT, TAP, TCPC, TDC, TEDU, THS, TK, TNDM, TPH, TU, VC, VIVO, WAC, WD, WEN, WIN, ZEUS
Wed, Sep. 24, 8:13 AM
- Retail sales could increase by 4.5% to $986B this holiday season on an improved macroeconomic backdrop, forecasts Deloitte Touche.
- The mark would easily top last year's 2.8% rise.
- Online sales are tipped to rise by 14%.
- Promotional activity across broad retail has been dialed back a touch during the back-to-school season, but is still a risk to margins heading into the crucial shopping period.
- What to watch: This holiday season could be an operational pressure cooker for UPS (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx (NYSE:FDX) with demand expected to be high.
- Related stocks: AAP, AEO, ANF, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, FDO, FL, GPS, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LB, LULU, M, NDN, PIR, RL, TGT, TIF, TJX, UA, URBN, VFC, WMT, ZLC, PERY, SQBG, VNCE, KORS, GIII, KATE, GIL, VRA, ICON, PSMT, AMZN.
- Related ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, IYK, FXD, FDIS, PMR, UGE, RCD, SZK
Thu, Aug. 14, 3:38 PM
- Tiger Global Management was active in buying and exiting positions in consumers stocks over the last quarter, according to th hedge fund's most recent filing.
- New positions: Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Vera Bradley (OTC:VERA), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO).
- Increased: 21st Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) to 19.26M shares; Restoration Hardware (NYSE:RH) to 3.193M shares.
- Maintained: Burger King (NYSE:BKW) at 7.2M shares, MasterCard (NYSE:MC) at 3.44M shares, Dollar General (NYSE:DG) at 7.893M shares.
- Exits: SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA), Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE), Carter (NYSE:CRI).
- SEC Form 13F
Wed, Aug. 13, 7:27 AM
- Piper Jaffray cuts estimates on Guess (NYSE:GES) after seeing Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) throw a scare into the sector during its earnings call by signaling it might push its EBITDA margin goal out a year.
- Wedbush Securities analyst Corrina Freedman thinks the 25.4% drop in Kate Spade yesterday was overdone. The investment firm is a buyer at current levels.
- Piper lowers its outlook on profit margins for Guess and drops it price target to $29.
Tue, Aug. 12, 12:45 PM
Tue, Aug. 12, 11:57 AM
- The bottom just fell out of Kate Spade (KATE -18.8%) this morning after shares had run up a tidy 7% post-earnings gain.
- During the firm's earnings call, execs said they "might" push out long-term guidance by a year.
- That ambiguity by management and the heavy hand of short-minded traders appear to be swinging momentum.
- Volume on KATE is already 10X normal activity.
- Earnings call webcast
Tue, Aug. 12, 10:28 AM
- Shares of Kate Spade (KATE +7.3%) carve out a new multi-year high after a bustling Q2 report and a bump in guidance.
- The retailer almost doubled up the street estimate for comp growth with its 30.4% mark.
- What to watch: Some retail analysts are wary of the heavy level of markdowns and margin compression that Kate Spade had to endure to achieve its sales pop. If the brand slips out of the affordable luxury category, they note that working its way back up could be difficult.
Tue, Aug. 12, 9:06 AM
- Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) reports comparable direct-to-consumer sales rose 30.4% in Q2.
- The rate of sales growth for both the Kate Space North America and Kate Spade International segments was over 50% during the period.
- The retailer's gross profit rate fell 320 bps to 58.6% on a shift in mix toward off-price volume.
- KATE +5.8% premarket
KATE vs. ETF Alternatives
Kate Spade & Co, formerly Fifth & Pacific Companies, Inc., designs and markets accessories and apparel under three global, multichannel lifestyle brands: kate spade new york, Kate Spade Saturday and Jack Spade.
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