There are no Transcripts on KBE.
Thu, Oct. 23, 4:49 PM
- Not having had the pleasure of being subject to the stress test and CCAR previously, Deutsche Bank's (NYSE:DB) U.S. unit will be a participant next year
- As in prior years, those BHCs with large trading operations - BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, WFC - will be required to factor in a global market shock as part of their scenarios.
- Those six, plus STT and BK - thanks to their custodial operations - will be required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario.
- Among the items in the severely adverse scenario is the unemployment rate jumping to 10%, a 60% dive in the stock market, and oil jumping to $110 per barrel (how about oil falling to $10 per barrel?).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KCE, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KBWC, FINZ, KRS
Wed, Oct. 22, 10:32 AM
- The MBA index rose 11.6% for the week ended October 17, the largest gain since January as mortgage rates continued to decline - the average 30-year fixed mortgage coming in at 4.1%, the lowest since May 2013.
- Leading the way were refinancings, with that gauge jumping 23.3%, the biggest move since January 2012 (purchase applications fell 4.6%).
- Should the trend continue, the now-lean mortgage operations at places like Wells Fargo (WFC +0.2%), JPMorgan (JPM +0.2%), and Bank of America (BAC +0.2%), among others, should provide a nice boost to Q4 results.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS
Wed, Oct. 15, 10:49 AM
- Bank earnings models will no doubt need to be tweaked as the sure thing of higher rates becomes somewhat less sure, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunging all the way down to 2%, and 30-day Fed Funds futures - just weeks ago pricing in 100% chance of a rate hike by June 2015 - now sees no move until December 2015.
- The XLF is lower by 1.9% and the Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE) is down 2.1% (the S&P 500 is off a mere 1.1%). Among individual names, KeyCorp (KEY -6.4%), First Bancorp (FBP -6.4%), Regions Financial (RF -4%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.2%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.6%), Bank of America (BAC -4%), Citigroup (C -3.3%), JPMorgan (JPM -2.8%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.9%).
- Financial ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, FINZ, KRS
- Life insurers were also waiting on higher rates and they're slipping more than the averages as well. MetLife (MET -3.7%), Prudential (PRU -2.9%), Manulife (MFC -3.5%) Sun Life (SLF -3.4%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -3.9%).
- Insurance ETFs: KIE, IAK, KBWP, KBWI
- Previously: BofA call: Assumption about higher rates not so sure anymore
Mon, Oct. 13, 8:00 AM
- When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In what smells like another foray by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, with other agencies possibly joining in, banks are reportedly under investigation for lending ... this time for automobiles.
- Amid an otherwise sluggish loan market - especially for mortgages - auto lending has experienced rapid growth over the past few years, particularly subprime lending, and those in that business - Santander Consumer being one - are already under examination by the CFPB.
- At issue for banks is not just the direct auto loans they're making, but the financing they're providing to shops like Santander Consumer.
- Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is the largest U.S. auto lender, with $50.8B in loans outstanding at the end of last year, roughly $15B of which was subprime. In addition, the bank has extended since 2011 more than $1.5B of credit lines to the country's largest subprime lenders. Other sizable players include Capital One (NYSE:COF) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).
- "Banks are making a lot of money off these (auto) loans in many different ways," says the head of a consumer advocate group. Isn't that what they're supposed to do?
- "The subprime auto sector appears too small to present a systemic risk," says BAML's Michael Hanson.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, FINZ
Fri, Oct. 10, 12:52 PM
- The banking industry is very close to resolving too big to fail, says Jamie Dimon (JPM +0.6%), speaking publicly for the first time since his cancer diagnosis (other than his July earnings call appearance). He's appearing at a conference roundtable alongside Morgan Stanley's (MS +0.8%) James Gorman, Deutsche's (DB -0.9%) Anshu Jain, and Bank of America's (BAC +0.7%) Brian Moynihan.
- Webcast here
- The most pointed remarks so far come from Deutsche's Jain, who tells those who would continue to further strangle the banks with more regulation to look to Europe. Straightforward banking - taking deposits and making loans - is far more the norm there then here, he says, and the forcing of banks to trim businesses and balance sheets is a large contributor to the Continent's stagnant growth.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KCE, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KBWC, KRS, FINZ
Thu, Sep. 18, 12:53 PM
- Banks, insurers, brokerages and anything else starved for yield continue to gain following yesterday's FOMC news. Among the gainers are Bank of America (BAC +1.9%) - which breaks above $17 for the first time since April - Citigroup (C +2.7%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.1%), PNC (PNC +1.1%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.7%), SunTrust (STI +1.2%), Schwab (SCHW +2.3%), Prudential (PRU +2.5%), and Lincoln National (LNC +2.4%).
- The XLF +1.2%, KBE +1.5%, and KRE +2%.
- Financial sector ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, KBWB, FNCL, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, FINZ
- Lit up bright red is the utility sector (XLU -1%), led by Southern Company (SO -1.1%), Dominion Resources (D -1.2%), Duke Energy (DUK -1.4%), and Pinnacle West (PNW -1.9%).
- Utility ETFs: XLU, IDU, VPU, UPW, RYU, FUTY, PUI, FXU, SDP, PSCU
Wed, Sep. 17, 3:16 PM
- Leading markets higher as the reality of higher interest rates gets nearer is the financial sector (XLF +0.9%). Whether its banks, brokerages, or insurers, a higher benchmark rate for some time has been considered a key bullish catalyst. An especially large move is being seen in the online brokerage names who have been forced to forego money market fees for years thanks to ZIRP: E*Trade (ETFC +3%), Schwab(SCHW +3.2%), Ameritrade (AMTD +2%).
- Morgan Stanley (MS +1.8%), Bank of America (BAC +1.2%), JPMorgan (JPM +0.9%)
- U.S. Bancorp (USB +1.1%), Regions Financial (RF +2%), New York Community Bank (NYCB +0.8%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN +1.3%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.3%)
- MetLife (MET +0.6%), Voya Financial (VOYA +0.7%).
- Chubb(CB +0.4%), AIG (AIG +1.1%), Hartford (HIG +0.8%)
- Financial sector ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, KIE, IAT, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, KBWB, FNCL, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, KBWP, RYF, KBWI, KRS, FINZ
Tue, Aug. 12, 3:46 PM
- More than a third of executives surveyed by Sageworks have little or no familiarity with a proposed new FASB rule which could force lenders to boost reserves held against troubled loans. More than half say they're not planning on modifying their processes until after the rule is implemented (could come by year-end).
- The changes wouldn't take effect until 2017 or 2018, but banks need to start getting ready to amass data now, says Sageworks, as they'll "need a lot more granular data" on individual loans - three or four years worth - to deal with the new regime.
- The new rule would require banks to record losses based on future projections of loans going bad, rather than the current practice of waiting to record losses until they actually occur.
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, RKH, QABA, KRU, KBWR, PSCF, KRS
Thu, Jun. 26, 3:11 PM
- "Five years ago, if the risk group recommended against a strategy or product, it might just be one part of a debate," says Wells Fargo (WFC -0.4%) chief risk officer Michael Loughlin. Now, "when we say no, it's usually no."
- The naysayers are gaining power and multiplying across the banking industry as lenders bow to pressure from regulators to simplify and make safer their operations in the hope of preventing the next financial collapse. For its part, Wells has 2.3K employees in its core risk-management department, up from 1.7K two years ago, and the unit's annual budget has doubled to $500M over that period. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs (GS -0.2%) made its chief risk officer part of the trader/rainmaker-dominated company management committee for the first time ever.
- The changes are expensive and come at a time of sluggish loan growth and trading revenue, but the banks have no choice as regulators wield the power given them by Dodd-Frank.
- KeyCorp (KEY +0.1%), for instance, used to pay loan officers for meeting profit goals. Now those bonuses can be lost if their work falls short of new risk-management standards. It's no doubt one factor behind sharply lower loan commitments for construction and real-estate development.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAI, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, KBWB, FNCL, RKH, QABA, FINU, KCE, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, KBWC, FINZ
Wed, Jun. 25, 2:52 PM
- The quest for yield is winning out over regulator efforts to clamp down on risky lending, as an OCC report finds signs of rising credit risk in the banks. The agency notes two areas in particular - leveraged loans and indirect auto loans.
- Leveraged loans are essentially the banker version of high-yield bonds and indirect auto loans are banks financing car loans through an auto dealer.
- 2013's issuance of covenant-lite leveraged loans - which strip away some protection for the lenders - hit $258B in 2013, about equal to the total amount issued between 1997 and 2012.
- "Banks are looking for asset classes that performed better during the last crisis," says the OCC's Darrin Benhart. "The concern of course is that the previous crisis is not always the best indicator of what issues may happen next."
- Full report
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, KBWB, FNCL, RKH, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, FINZ
Wed, May. 28, 2:16 PM
- The agency will have fewer of its people stationed in the offices of the largest U.S. banks, instead bringing the workers back to OCC offices where they can develop a broader perspective on what may be happening in the financial system.
- The move comes after Comptroller Thomas Curry - who took the reins in 2012 - brought in external consultants to review the OCC's examination program which failed to sniff out much in the way of systemic risk ahead of the financial crisis.
- This action stands in contrast to that of regulators like the FRBNY (which also whiffed on the financial crisis), which is boosting its on-site presence at banks.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAI, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, KRS, FINZ
Wed, May. 28, 8:23 AM
- First they came for the big banks, and I did nothing ... The nation's largest lenders nearly sucked dry from mortgage settlements, housing regulators have turned their attention to a number of smaller players, with Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), SunTrust (STI), and Regions Financial (RF) all recently disclosing investigations into the origination and servicing of home loans. U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Capital One (COF) have also disclosed probes into various mortgage practices.
- Any money recouped from the regional lenders would go a long way towards stabilizing the finances of the FHA which required a $1.7B taxpayer infusion last year. "Settling with the large guys gave [the government] a template," says Eric Wasserstrom from Robinson Humphrey. "The agencies involved in the national mortgage settlement had planned to focus on the largest mortgage servicers first," says the Iowa assistant AG. "Then you move on to other entities."
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, RKH, QABA, KRU, KBWR, KRS
Wed, May. 21, 3:10 PM
- It's only about the "fifth inning" of mortgage investigations, says Michael Stevens, in a phrase likely to send a chill through the boardrooms of banks across the country. Stevens is the FHFA's acting inspector general, and Bloomberg's Jody Shenn - in attendance at the MBA event where Stevens is speaking - says there was a "loud, collective gasp" from the crowd when he uttered that line.
- Stevens says investigators have found improper actions "not only occasionally, but in the end, with almost every" deal examined. “I don’t see anything in the near future that’s going to wipe the slate clean with all of the investigations.”
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAI, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, KME, RKH, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS
Fri, May. 16, 2:57 PM
- The KBW Bank Index (ETF: KBE) is off about 8% from early April, with the performance of high-profile members like BofA, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman is even worse (though Wells Fargo remains close to an all-time high).
- It used to be, writes Michael Santoli, bank stock action was key to gauge the broader health of the market, but few are fretting now. Instead attention is being paid to the slides in the Russell 2000, high-flying growth names, and Treasury yields.
- Rather than saying anything about the economy, the drop in bank shares could be more about thinning out an easy trade (long) that got too crowded. The latest BAML fund manager survey shows pros as big sellers of bank names in the last few weeks, dropping their allocations to a 10-month low. Even with the selling, their exposure to the sector remains far above the national average.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, IAT, SEF, IYG, PFI, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, RKH, QABA, FINU, KRU, RWW, KBWR, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
Fri, May. 16, 7:40 AM
- KeyCorp (KEY) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) are among the regional lenders stepping up their commodities business as the big Wall Street banks pull back. "[Regional lenders] are definitely beginning to fill the void left by some of the big guys," says Bonanza Creek Energy CFO Bill Cassidy.
- Others stepping in include Australian bank Macquarie (MQBKY), Cargill, and BP. Last year, the top ten regional banks held an average of $23B in commodity derivatives on their books, up nearly 50% from 2009. Still, the amount is just a speck compared to the $3.9T on the books of the top 6 Wall Street banks.
- Even this modest amount is meaningful though, says Guggenheim's Marty Mosby, as it allows the regionals to "pop out and create some incremental revenue growth."
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, RKH, QABA, KRU, KBWR, KRS
Fri, May. 9, 12:08 PM
- There's little chance of any action this year, says Guggenheim's Jaret Seiberg, but Congress could have a look at raising the bar at which banks would be considered "systemically important" to $100B in assets from $50B. The idea comes after Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo - the point man at the central bank over bank regulation - in a speech this week suggested a SIFI designation may not be necessary for those lenders with $50B-$100B in assets.
- Being branded a SIFI brings far stricter requirements such as drawing up "living wills" and submitting to the Fed's stress test and CCAR. "If the line were redrawn at a higher figure, we might explore simpler methods for promoting macroprudential aims with respect to banks above $10 billion in assets but below the new threshold," says the central planner from the Fed.
- Making the move to $100B from $50B, says Guggenheim's Seiberg, might be even more likely should Ohio's Sherrod Brown become head of the Senate Banking Committee. A critic of the TBTFs, Brown has also complained about undue burdens being placed on regional lenders such as his home state's Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and KeyCorp (KEY).
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, RKH, QABA, KRU, KBWR, KRS, AIRR
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