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KBE Forum Topics
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- General Discussion on KBE
- The Credit Bubble: Deregulation Gone Wild [view article]
- Lack of Integrity: 10th Bank Failure of 2008 on Poor Risk Management [view article]
- Banks Will Need $675 Billion Infusion for Modest Growth [view article]
- 6 Emergency Measures to Prevent a Banking Meltdown [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha [view article]
- Money Market Funds: 'Chutzpah Banking' [view article]
- Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
- A Pairs Trade With Two Bank ETFs (KBE, RKH) [view article]
- Bank Stocks Down 11.56% Yesterday [view article]
- 8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [view article]
- Financials Have Bottomed? Readers Say We're Nuts [view article]
- Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Recent KBE Articles
- Financial Meltdown Algorithm
- Banks Will Need $675 Billion Infusion for Modest Growth
- 6 Emergency Measures to Prevent a Banking Meltdown
- While Wall Street Sells: Why Banks Are a Buy
- Thursday Outlook: Dysfunctional Politics
- Time for the FDIC to Raise Limits on Insured Deposits
- Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha
- Money Market Funds: 'Chutzpah Banking'
- Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop
- Bank Stocks Down 11.56% Yesterday
- Full List of Articles »
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Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
A better instrument for shorting commercial real estate is to buy puts on the IYR. Ultra Shorts are not the best instruments to maximize returns. Don't take my word for it, just take a look at the charts comparing the URE, SRS and the IYR. Reply8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [view article]
I am long in VNQ; real estate may be "toxic" in general, but I took a chance on it because its mostly commercial/rental real estate, and it pays a nice dividend. ReplyCommercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
This will be interesting to see how it unfolds. In the San Francisco Bay Area the competition for quality commercial real estate assets was intense over the last few years. The speculation was based on improving market conditions (i.e. better future rental rates). So now you have a weakening economy, less job growth and therefore less tenants expanding. Many of these deals were financed with short term money. Refinancing in today's market, I'm guessing, will be more expensive and/or the debt will be less available. And we'll continue to see more foreign sources stepping in. My company, rofo.com is a resource for businesses to find commercial space (office, retail, industrial). We have not seen a fall off on the tenant demand side for space (as of yet) but we are seeing more sublease spaces coming on the market. It will become more of a buyer's market over the next couple of years. Replyshelp
Financials Have Bottomed? Readers Say We're Nuts [view article]
Care to revise your article?www.bankstocks.com/Art...
What a freaking joke you are.
" I believe July 15, 2008 will turn out to be as good a date as any to mark the end of the long, painful bear market financial stocks have endured for the past 18 months. And more to the point, it marks the beginning of the greatest financial stock bull market in our lifetime, one that will be much broader than the bull market that began in 1990."
HAHAHAHAH
Sucks if you were thinking anything remotely close to us reaching the bottom of Financials. I think you are completely clueless. Or maybe you were just part of the whole unethical wall st trying to push Financials that you were shorting yourself. Pathetic and greedy human being. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting such an egregious article. Wonder if anyone will be reading bankstocks in a year.... Reply
Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
Agree with you totally DaveW.I just pray that it continues to work in the future as in the past. I am looking for SRS going to $200 in the next 6 months.
As the article reports, many smaller banks will fail with the large volume of commercial loans. There is simply not enough money available to allow buyers to get financing when buildings come on the market, which will happen all over as vacancy increases and foreclosures also increase. Those buildings will be sold at firesale prices!
Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!
Thanks for the article. Reply
8 Sector ETFs in a Surprising Uptrend [view article]
Gary, are you recommending any of these to your clients? ReplyBank Stocks Down 11.56% Yesterday [view article]
The plug protection team bought to squeeze the shorts Thursday and Friday, to goose the settlement price on options as high as possible for Friday expiration. As soon as they were past that, they sold. That is all.Also, the bailout was believable on Friday, but Monday we got to see what the Dems plan to do with it. And the answer is wreck it thoroughly with insane unworkable class warfare riders. So people basically decided on Monday that the bailout was a sham and either wasn't going to happen or wasn't going to help.
People are still uncertain. But until they see a deal in ink they aren't going to believe this braintrust isn't going to screw the pooch yet again. And if the deal is "oh and you have to give us the bank, and make mortgages credit card loans and never foreclose", and such utter rot, then the government can spend as much as it likes and it won't make the slightest difference. Nobody who isn't already bankrupt will take such terms, so it won't save anything, anyway.
The whole point of the Paulson plan was to get the bad paper *out* of the banking system. Make the terms into "if and only if you've failed and want to be nationalized and turned into arms of HUD", then nobody will sell to them and it won't have the slightest effect.
These people are not fit to run a McDonalds... Reply
Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop [view article]
Proshares Ultrashort Real-Estate ETF (SRS) in the mid $70's is a nice entry point right now, price target $110 or better. Other thoughts, bloggers? ReplyBank Stocks Down 11.56% Yesterday [view article]
Don't give us that BS about "why buy when the shorts will be back". No one is buying because there is no known value in these stocks and the weak shorts have been taken out. Having shorts creates buying interest in case you aren't aware. Give us some info about the amount of the short interest in these companies and how much that changed between last week and the week before.Alternatively, go look at the 1932 witch hunt against the shorts only to have the market continue to meltdown for several months after the fact. Why? Because there were no buyers left and stocks simply hadn't found their level. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Taxpayers own stocks, to the tune of 100,000,000 million Americans are invested in the market. Use your friggin heads. The govt had to intervene. Ya think a taxpayer is different than an individual who own stocks? Gimme a break, people. ReplyOptions Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
34CD77:i don't want to put words in your mouth but i infer from your stated views that you think LEH BSC, AIG, and perhaps CFC and WM, were fundamentally sound businesses, driven to bankruptcy (or near bankruptcy) by hedge fund shorting. if you believe this you must also believe that the u.s. government has been suckered by a bunch of hedge funds, since they're needlessly spending $1trillion or so to bail out these sound business. call me stupid but thats pretty hard to swallow.
shorting is not the root of the problem here. the problem is overleveraged investment banks and bad credit. shorts forced the issue to the surface sooner than investors or the government wanted to recognize it.
Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Come on guys and Phillip. To say that it is illegal to make money on a stock going down is rediculous. Sell it and buy it back in the future. Or you are speaking about HF1 and HF2 saying" Lets short at 2:30 1MM shares each. They don't own it or they haven't bothered to borrow it since the SEC doesn"t enforce the rules. This isn't "making money when the stock goes down" this is shear driving the price down. Of course the big money paid whom ever in Washington to do away with the up-tick rule. When are the hedge funds going to have some rules.Its time. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Philip Thanks as always for your insight. You have your haters as always but as my girl Christine says "haters make me famous". ReplyOptions Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Zion hitting 110 was a misprint. Had to be. ReplyOptions Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
I read with great interest many of these comments, some are by frenzied investors, some by knowlegable investors.The above comment in Phillips interesting piece about the short sale rule that makes it illegal to make money when stocks go down. The old fashioned way was to sell the stock. When sellers out number buyers, the stock goes down. Then buy it back. Short selling the way it used to be before the extreme amount of cash was paid by the hedge funds to have the up-tick rule done away with. That added to the SEC that refused to make these same groups borrow stock to short , before shorting. Here is my picture. HF A says to HF B ,lets short the hell out of LEH today starting at 2:30. HF A and HF B each short 1MM shares at 2:30. They don't own it nor did they borrow it. !0-15 days later or sooner they buy it back. That is phantom stock. Of corse the reality is that when the public sees it , they panic and the shock goes lower. Each days this is done over and over again. ie LEH 40 to 3 .
The SEC is at fault. They must be replaced.
And in parting, for the government to perhaps spend 500B now is peanuts compared to what the total cost would have been if they hadn't! Reply