KB Home (KBH)

All Comments on KBH

  • commenter
    stvcomment
    Oct 08 03:37 PM
    The Short Case on KBH Homes [view article]
    whats wrong with a collar...these home builders will start moving up before most people will recognize the pent up demand out there.

     Reply
  • commenter
    JohnKing
    Oct 07 06:09 PM
    My Website
    Homebuilder Sector: Waiting For KBH, LEN Results [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    So TOL is in the land speculation business now.

    Reply
  • commenter
    Pretzel
    Logic
    Oct 05 05:23 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Hey! As a 30-something investor, I resent these implications! Short attention span, my ass! Wait... what was I talking about again?

    Anyway, you'd be surprised how many of us 30-somethings know our history. I've been bearish since 2001 (I actually missed the cyclical bull we completed last year because I stayed bearish the entire time). This market looks a lot like the market of the late 60's to me, and I don't expect an end to the bear for years.

    Why all the bashing of 30-40-somethings, when it's the Baby Boomers who took the strongest economy in history and basically destroyed it over the course of about 20 years? They mortgaged our economic future to China, Japan, et al and buried us in debts we cannot repay (except possibly by massive inflation). As far as I'm concerned, the Boomers sold this country down the river, but my generation will be the one left holding the bag.

    So which generation has the short attention span, exactly?

    Generation X: The suckers who are still buying into their 401Ks and paying their FICA because they don't know their history?

    Or the Baby Boomer ME generation who just had to have their entitlements and a bigger home and a plasma TV and timeshare in Venice -- and didn't care how they got them, as long as they got what they wanted?

    And, for the record, Cramer is a complete idiot.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 151885
    Oct 02 03:14 PM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    It's hard to blame the decisions on the current managements of our banks and governments. The actions being taken are those taught by our most prestigeous halls of education.
    Until that is corrected, our problems will continue. This will take at least a generation to adjust. We're just going to have to BEAR with it!     Reply
  • commenter
    bddoyl
    Oct 02 01:37 PM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Does anyone really believe that housing stocks will ever repeat their earnings of 2005. With lower and middle class real wages decreasing and credit standards tightening, it's would be optimistic to believe that the housing industry will have meaningful earnings before 2010-11. To buy such stocks now is a great leap of faith. Reply
  • commenter
    JohnKing
    Oct 02 01:25 PM
    My Website
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Its not the 30-40 something investors. Its the 30-40 something mutual fund managers that take advice from Cramer. Due diligence for them is watching "Mad Money".

    I kid you not.     Reply
  • commenter
    TBill
    Oct 02 10:48 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    This isn't anything like 1973. Believe me. For a comparison, you have to go back to 1930. Smoot Hawley, Sarbanes Oxley. And now we are about to elect a leftist who will make it worse. Yup, it's all there. Reply
  • commenter
    globalHOBBIT
    Oct 02 07:56 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    I totally agree with SWRichmond assessment on the 30ish to 40ish group of investors. I was in college back in the early to mid 1970's and was interning at a brokerage company, Hoppin-Watson & Co., and I still remember well the 1972-1974 correction. We seem to be on our way there now as this is worse than 1987's correction and the dot-com bubble of 2000. Seek out the wisdom of men like Art Cashin who were around back then and now give very sage and insightful investing guidance. Reply
  • commenter
    SWRichmond
    Oct 02 07:10 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    This is a perfect, perfect, perfect illustration of the 30- and 40-something crowd that still believes that this is just another dip that the Fed et al are going to maneuver us out of, and so this "low" is just another historic buying opportunity. Americans have been taught that they have a right to expect the stock market to always go up. The 30- and 40-somethings have grown up in an environment where stocks just go up. Put money in the stock market and by magic it gets bigger! What's not to like? This is the short-attention-span crowd that thinks it understands economics and boo-yahs at idiots like Cramer.

    And their is a paradigm that that will kill most of them. This crowd has never seen a genuine capitulation. We are so far still from a genuine capitulation event that when it comes this crowd will be vomiting on the streets. Literally.

    And then they will be begging for the government to save them.     Reply
  • commenter
    Judy Weil,
    SA Editor
    Oct 02 07:05 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Thanks! Reply
  • commenter
    fatcat
    Oct 02 07:02 AM
    Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Great compilation ,Judy..thanks. Reply
  • commenter
    WAIKIKI 1
    Sep 30 09:17 PM
    The Coming Crash of 2008: A Result of Overleveraging [view article]
    Well, here we are on September 30th 2008 and the very crash that this article predicted is maturing - all thanks to the 1999 Republican Congress and the deranged deregulators in their ranks - one of whom is now running as the Republican Candidate for President - who repealed the Glass-S! The figures in a sentence of the article that really jumps out - now that Pres. Bush is saying that 'only' a government welfare check to Wall Street's Bankers totaling $700 Billion is needed - is:
    "The Financial Times has published estimates that the size of the derivatives markets is currently estimated to be 450 trillion dollars and the notional value of credit default swaps is 45 trillion."
    Obviously, the Glass-Steagall Act needs to be re-enacted without delay. And obviously, the now proposed $700 Billion 'Bail-out' for Wall Street is only drop in the vast bucket debt this thing dwells in.
    The 2002 Warren Buffet quote posted by SWAPS on March 20 (see above) about “Over leveraging through derivatives” astutely diagnoses the financial mess America is facing today:

    "I view derivatives as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.

    Basically these instruments call for money to change hands at some future date, with the amount to be determined by one or more reference items, such as interest rates, stock prices, or currency values. For example, if you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a party to a very simple derivatives transaction, with your gain or loss derived from movements in the index. Derivatives contracts are of varying duration, running sometimes to 20 or more years, and their value is often tied to several variables.

    Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the creditworthiness of the counter-parties to them. But before a contract is settled, the counter-parties record profits and losses – often huge in amount – in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing hands. Reported earnings on derivatives are often wildly overstated. That’s because today’s earnings are in a significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years.

    The errors usually reflect the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one’s commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them."     Reply
  • commenter
    Think-About-
    It
    Sep 30 05:24 PM
    The Short Case on KBH Homes [view article]
    I like your thoughts here but profitability is one thing and cash flow is quite another. What do your think of their cash from operations. I looked at past three years and past 4 quarters and they have managed to generate positive cash from operations. When shorting I perfer the accounting loss (which investors give a bit too much weight to) to be smaller than their net cash outflow from operations.

    Regarding valuation, how does KBH compare to it's peers?

    If you short it and plan to hold if for a year or so you need to take $1 or about 5% off the short price because of their dividend.

    I agree that housing has more to fall (I think another 20%) and won't recover quickly either so I'm eager to find a great short in this space. Thanks for the post.

    FYI, I'm short OWW. You may want to look at it.
    Reply
  • commenter
    rcraig@baker
    sfeildcolleg
    e.edu
    Sep 29 01:24 PM
    The Short Case on KBH Homes [view article]
    Look a little deeper. KBH was founded by the same guy who founded Sun America who then bought a controlling share of AIG then sold it just a few months before the financial crissis hit the media.
    AKA Uncle Eli, Mr. Orange County, Eli Borad, the same individual who virtually owns the Michigan University (Accounting Campus) or there abouts. The same man who bought Bill Cliintons way into the White House.
    Smart man or a very careful crook. I would really like to know what made him so special that he could smell money in the Chinesee Insurance market and smell mre money just in the nick of time to bail out of AIG.
    Something tells me this streches just a little bit beyond good financial management.     Reply
  • commenter
    Mule
    Sep 29 08:29 AM
    The Short Case on KBH Homes [view article]
    What cracks me up about the homebuilders is when they sell land for 40 cents on the dollar and then state, "we are generating cash by selling unneeded lots and land. I recall from a recent TOL CC an analyst made the argument that unfinished lots should now carry a value of zero since it would cost more to upgrade the lot to finished condition than what the value currently is on the balance sheet. Reply
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