In-Depth Analysis Shows That Even Strong PES2015 Sales Do Not Justify Konami's Valuation
- EA and FIFA have hurt Konami real bad. Copies sold of PES declined from 6.8 million to 1 million in 6 years.
- This year PES is getting a lot of positive media attention and this will have a positive impact on sales. I expect PES2015 to outsell PES2014 by 179% during FY2015.
- All of this, plus the fact that Konami is quoting near its 52-week low, could cause investors to think that Konami is worth a buy.
- However, even strong PES 2015 sales appear to not justify its current valuation; which currently represents a P/E of 36. Konami would be more attractive at $14 (its book value).
- A delisting will also cause the stock to be less attractive and accessible and could lower transparency.
Konami: You Will Love This Stock After Casino Legalization
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Apr. 17, 2014, 6:58 PM
- While U.S. physical retail video game sales have been slumping for some time (as shown by NPD's data), SuperData estimates U.S. digital gaming revenue rose 9% Y/Y in March to $936M.
- Revenue for subscription titles such as Activision (ATVI +1.2%) cash cow World of Warcraft fell Y/Y, but download and free-to-play revenue rose. Electronic Arts' (EA -0.1%) much-hyped Titanfall delivered the most digital revenue among "boxed" titles.
- SuperData estimates conversion rates (i.e. the ratio of paying users to total users) for social gaming platforms rose to 2.3% from 1.9% six months earlier. But Zynga (ZNGA +4.4%), which had a Q4 conversion rate of 1.7% and only averages $0.13 per DAU (less than its closest rivals), continues to trail.
- Zynga rallied today after officially launching FarmVille 2: Country Escape (first announced in March) in the App Store and Google Play. Morgan Stanley praised the game's monetization potential last week.
- In spite of widespread concerns about slumping Candy Crush Saga (KING -1.3%) usage, SuperData thinks the game is holding up reasonably well for now. It estimates spending rose 1.2% M/M (3 extra days helped), with mobile MAUs rising 0.3% and social (read: Facebook) MAUs falling 2.1%.
- Other game developers: TTWO, GLUU, KNM, SGAMY
Sep. 10, 2013, 9:32 AM
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW +4.7%) has been upgraded to Market Perform by Oppenheimer following its FQ4 results and solid FQ1 guidance.
- Fusion-io (FIO +4%) has been upgraded by Piper, as M&A speculation (I, II) continues to swirl in the wake of Western Digital/Virident.
- Jabil (JBL +2.6%) has been upgraded to Strong Buy by Needham.
- Calix (CALX -2.9%) has been cut to Sell by Goldman.
- Analogic (ALOG +1.5%) has been started at Buy by Benchmark.
- Konami (KNM +4.1%) has been started at Underperform by Jefferies.
KNM vs. ETF Alternatives
Konami Corp develops, publishes, markets and distributes video game software products for stationary consoles & for portable consoles, also for use on personal computers. It also produces gaming machines for casinos & operates Health & Fitness clubs.
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